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Post by glennkoks on Aug 20, 2022 1:36:35 GMT
Walnut, my question would be can we have another bull market run with 8.5% inflation? And won't that just lead to more inflation? And while I must admit 208% in 2.5 years is a legendary ROI, the next 2.5 years is most likely going to be a much different investing environment than the past 2.5. I have a lot of respect for Michael Burry, he has made money in the market when few others have. I would say he is gifted with foresight few other investors can match. 13F filings revealed he has dumped almost all of his stocks. Like I said before, I don't have any real opinion about what the stock market will do over the next year. I am investing for long term and am not terribly worried about it.
My question for you is, if you really believe that inflation is going to continue to be a problem, why would you want to hold dollars? It's a government guaranteed 8.5% annual haircut lol. Compounded monthly.
I prefer to be in well managed businesses which can raise their selling prices and increase dividends, a better place to be over time. We can compare notes in 3 years.
My little hedge fund is doing much better than Burry's, which usually does shit. About like watching paint dry. He pretty much made all of his fairly modest cumulative return in the 2020 crash. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Burry is a successful perma-bear. But that "investing style" does not work for most people. It usually derails wealth growth badly, and often leads to disaster when people try to call a top and short a high-flier. Or go long VIX futures etf's when the contango is over 10%. That's a real fast way to end your trading career. But they do it all the time.
The highway is littered with corpses of small time perma-bears.
Walnut, I really believe that inflation/stagflation is going to be a problem for the long term. As for the inflation? We are all paying the toll whether you are in the market or out of it. As for Burry's hedge fund according to Wiki: "Scion Capital ultimately recorded returns of 489.34% (net of fees and expenses) between its November 1, 2000 inception and June 2008. The S&P 500, widely regarded as the benchmark for the US market, returned just under 3%, including dividends over the same period." Burry's next hedge fund Scion Asset Management boasted 10 year performance of 537.87%. If he is a "Perma-bear" as you claim he has one hell of a record smoking the S&P 500 over the last 22 years. hedgefollow.com/funds/Scion+Asset+ManagementThe last 12+ years have seen one of the best if not the best Bull Markets in our history. Anyone can and did make great returns. The highways are more littered with corpses of gamblers who did not have the foresight to take something off the table and just kept rolling the dice then they are with perma-bears. I don't see an upside to this market. I am not mad at you for staying the coarse and disagreeing with me at all. I like opposing points of view and I value your opinion. Thanks for posting. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 20, 2022 2:03:04 GMT
Like I said before, I don't have any real opinion about what the stock market will do over the next year. I am investing for long term and am not terribly worried about it.
My question for you is, if you really believe that inflation is going to continue to be a problem, why would you want to hold dollars? It's a government guaranteed 8.5% annual haircut lol. Compounded monthly.
I prefer to be in well managed businesses which can raise their selling prices and increase dividends, a better place to be over time. We can compare notes in 3 years.
My little hedge fund is doing much better than Burry's, which usually does shit. About like watching paint dry. He pretty much made all of his fairly modest cumulative return in the 2020 crash. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Burry is a successful perma-bear. But that "investing style" does not work for most people. It usually derails wealth growth badly, and often leads to disaster when people try to call a top and short a high-flier. Or go long VIX futures etf's when the contango is over 10%. That's a real fast way to end your trading career. But they do it all the time.
The highway is littered with corpses of small time perma-bears.
Walnut, I really believe that inflation/stagflation is going to be a problem for the long term. As for the inflation? We are all paying the toll whether you are in the market or out of it. As for Burry's hedge fund according to Wiki: "Scion Capital ultimately recorded returns of 489.34% (net of fees and expenses) between its November 1, 2000 inception and June 2008. The S&P 500, widely regarded as the benchmark for the US market, returned just under 3%, including dividends over the same period." Burry's next hedge fund Scion Asset Management boasted 10 year performance of 537.87%. If he is a "Perma-bear" as you claim he has one hell of a record smoking the S&P 500 over the last 22 years. hedgefollow.com/funds/Scion+Asset+ManagementThe last 12+ years have seen one of the best if not the best Bull Markets in our history. Anyone can and did make great returns. The highways are more littered with corpses of gamblers who did not have the foresight to take something off the table and just kept rolling the dice then they are with perma-bears. I don't see an upside to this market. I am not mad at you for staying the coarse and disagreeing with me at all. I like opposing points of view and I value your opinion. Thanks for posting. I am not exactly "staying the coarse", I got in pretty low. Believe me, I understand your point and I do not think that you are foolish for thinking that way. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 20, 2022 2:08:39 GMT
An interesting thing that I have noticed is that two very different, apparently opposing strategies can both succeed over similar time frames, depending on how they are managed.
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Post by walnut on Aug 20, 2022 14:24:01 GMT
From 2018 until now, Burry's performance has been pretty mediocre. He is like a meme stock, hitting it big every now and then. hedgefollow.com/funds/Scion+Asset+Managementclick on "performance" That fund is not for everyone, not attractive to me. He's obviously a smart guy though. More power to him. |
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Post by duwayne on Aug 20, 2022 17:41:12 GMT
Like I said before, I don't have any real opinion about what the stock market will do over the next year. I am investing for long term and am not terribly worried about it.
My question for you is, if you really believe that inflation is going to continue to be a problem, why would you want to hold dollars? It's a government guaranteed 8.5% annual haircut lol. Compounded monthly.
I prefer to be in well managed businesses which can raise their selling prices and increase dividends, a better place to be over time. We can compare notes in 3 years.
My little hedge fund is doing much better than Burry's, which usually does shit. About like watching paint dry. He pretty much made all of his fairly modest cumulative return in the 2020 crash. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Burry is a successful perma-bear. But that "investing style" does not work for most people. It usually derails wealth growth badly, and often leads to disaster when people try to call a top and short a high-flier. Or go long VIX futures etf's when the contango is over 10%. That's a real fast way to end your trading career. But they do it all the time.
The highway is littered with corpses of small time perma-bears.
Walnut, I really believe that inflation/stagflation is going to be a problem for the long term. As for the inflation? We are all paying the toll whether you are in the market or out of it. As for Burry's hedge fund according to Wiki: "Scion Capital ultimately recorded returns of 489.34% (net of fees and expenses) between its November 1, 2000 inception and June 2008. The S&P 500, widely regarded as the benchmark for the US market, returned just under 3%, including dividends over the same period." Burry's next hedge fund Scion Asset Management boasted 10 year performance of 537.87%. If he is a "Perma-bear" as you claim he has one hell of a record smoking the S&P 500 over the last 22 years. hedgefollow.com/funds/Scion+Asset+ManagementThe last 12+ years have seen one of the best if not the best Bull Markets in our history. Anyone can and did make great returns. The highways are more littered with corpses of gamblers who did not have the foresight to take something off the table and just kept rolling the dice then they are with perma-bears. I don't see an upside to this market. I am not mad at you for staying the coarse and disagreeing with me at all. I like opposing points of view and I value your opinion. Thanks for posting. If I may be so bold as to ask, where does your advisor recommend putting your savings during this "long-term inflation" period? What are your expectations for the inflation-adjusted return over this period? |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 20, 2022 22:30:35 GMT
Walnut, I really believe that inflation/stagflation is going to be a problem for the long term. As for the inflation? We are all paying the toll whether you are in the market or out of it. As for Burry's hedge fund according to Wiki: "Scion Capital ultimately recorded returns of 489.34% (net of fees and expenses) between its November 1, 2000 inception and June 2008. The S&P 500, widely regarded as the benchmark for the US market, returned just under 3%, including dividends over the same period." Burry's next hedge fund Scion Asset Management boasted 10 year performance of 537.87%. If he is a "Perma-bear" as you claim he has one hell of a record smoking the S&P 500 over the last 22 years. hedgefollow.com/funds/Scion+Asset+ManagementThe last 12+ years have seen one of the best if not the best Bull Markets in our history. Anyone can and did make great returns. The highways are more littered with corpses of gamblers who did not have the foresight to take something off the table and just kept rolling the dice then they are with perma-bears. I don't see an upside to this market. I am not mad at you for staying the coarse and disagreeing with me at all. I like opposing points of view and I value your opinion. Thanks for posting. If I may be so bold as to ask, where does your advisor recommend putting your savings during this "long-term inflation" period? What are your expectations for the inflation-adjusted return over this period? I am looking at real estate. Traditionally it has performed well during inflationary periods. My expectations for the inflation-adjusted return are low. I am pretty much just keeping powder dry and waiting. |
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 20, 2022 23:40:57 GMT
If I may be so bold as to ask, where does your advisor recommend putting your savings during this "long-term inflation" period? What are your expectations for the inflation-adjusted return over this period? I am looking at real estate. Traditionally it has performed well during inflationary periods. My expectations for the inflation-adjusted return are low. I am pretty much just keeping powder dry and waiting. If this is like 2009, you can go bottom feeding at the bottom of the bust. That may or may not be a while. They say there is lots of buying competition from big rental companies. |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 21, 2022 12:16:37 GMT
I am looking at real estate. Traditionally it has performed well during inflationary periods. My expectations for the inflation-adjusted return are low. I am pretty much just keeping powder dry and waiting. If this is like 2009, you can go bottom feeding at the bottom of the bust. That may or may not be a while. They say there is lots of buying competition from big rental companies. In 2009 my brother teamed up and purchased 7 houses at foreclosure, remodeled them and flipped them. We made a decent ROI. Had we held them and rented them out for a few years we would have made a really, really good ROI. Waiting for real estate prices in Texas to come back down to reality. |
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Post by duwayne on Aug 21, 2022 13:15:51 GMT
If this is like 2009, you can go bottom feeding at the bottom of the bust. That may or may not be a while. They say there is lots of buying competition from big rental companies. In 2009 my brother teamed up and purchased 7 houses at foreclosure, remodeled them and flipped them. We made a decent ROI. Had we held them and rented them out for a few years we would have made a really, really good ROI. Waiting for real estate prices in Texas to come back down to reality. If it's inflation, then prices don't come down. 2009 was a totally different thing. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 21, 2022 13:43:52 GMT
In 2009 my brother teamed up and purchased 7 houses at foreclosure, remodeled them and flipped them. We made a decent ROI. Had we held them and rented them out for a few years we would have made a really, really good ROI. Waiting for real estate prices in Texas to come back down to reality. If it's inflation, prices don't come down. 2009 was a totally different thing. I'm thinking a small drop, just to take the toppy part off. Most areas might not see much. Nothing like 2009. Knock on wood
We've been seeing Californian's in Tulsa, I really think that they have helped preserve our home prices here. Reverse Grapes of Wrath.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 21, 2022 14:46:59 GMT
If it's inflation, prices don't come down. 2009 was a totally different thing. I'm thinking a small drop, just to take the toppy part off. Most areas might not see much. Nothing like 2009. Knock on wood
We've been seeing Californian's in Tulsa, I really think that they have helped preserve our home prices here. Reverse Grapes of Wrath.
Component parts prices are certainly up (inflation). But the bidding wars from covid on, in many places were ridiculous. Will the Covid destinations retain their markup? I remember the mid-1980s in Arizona, Prescott and Sedona already had a large positive price differential based on 'reputation'. Flagstaff did not, but became part of the pack over the next decade. So far, these have stayed (intangibles). In the decade before 2009, everything that moved was eligible for a mortgage. And every dreamer and vagabond descended on Florida. The Okies are comin back Walnut! You can feel it in the wind.  Meanwhile, my mid-western University town location retains its decadal 85% markup. And St Louis continues its descent into Hell. |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 22, 2022 0:26:57 GMT
In 2009 my brother teamed up and purchased 7 houses at foreclosure, remodeled them and flipped them. We made a decent ROI. Had we held them and rented them out for a few years we would have made a really, really good ROI. Waiting for real estate prices in Texas to come back down to reality. If it's inflation, then prices don't come down. 2009 was a totally different thing. Absolutely, 2009 was a very different thing. I did not buy and sell houses as a hedge against inflation. I purchased them cheap at foreclosure to turn a profit not to protect wealth against inflation. If I was worried about inflation I clearly would have held on to them. Duwayne, I am curious what is your investment strategy for the next few years? Are you going to stay in equities? Legitimate question, I am not trolling. There is no right or wrong answer as Walnut pointed out there are many different ways to post gains. |
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Post by duwayne on Aug 22, 2022 14:07:08 GMT
If it's inflation, then prices don't come down. 2009 was a totally different thing. Absolutely, 2009 was a very different thing. I did not buy and sell houses as a hedge against inflation. I purchased them cheap at foreclosure to turn a profit not to protect wealth against inflation. If I was worried about inflation I clearly would have held on to them. Duwayne, I am curious what is your investment strategy for the next few years? Are you going to stay in equities? Legitimate question, I am not trolling. There is no right or wrong answer as Walnut pointed out there are many different ways to post gains. I've been open with my investment approach in these many posts over the years. I'll stay in equities through "typical" recessions with some "timing" with smaller positions during these "interruptions". I've spelled out these moves and this year I sold and bought back. There was an 18% gain on the decline and currently, even with the drop today, I'm up 9% since buying a couple of months ago.
If I see the potential for a 50% decline, I'll sell out my equity position. I discussed my view on the possibility of a 50% drop recently.
In the interest of completeness, I'll add this. I also have a significant options trading activity. You need to have several million dollars to follow such a strategy and I do not include those activities in my posts here. It is a "reduced risk" option approach and my returns are in the 9-15% range with a fairly firm cap on both ends. I sell options and operate somewhat like the "house" in a betting casino. The returns were not any better than my equity returns over the past several years, but equity returns were unusually good. We may be facing a period of lower equity returns in the next few years since P/E's are high and my option trading will probably be better than straight equities.
One final thing. You noted above you are not trolling. Do you troll sometimes?
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 22, 2022 19:26:44 GMT
Absolutely, 2009 was a very different thing. I did not buy and sell houses as a hedge against inflation. I purchased them cheap at foreclosure to turn a profit not to protect wealth against inflation. If I was worried about inflation I clearly would have held on to them. Duwayne, I am curious what is your investment strategy for the next few years? Are you going to stay in equities? Legitimate question, I am not trolling. There is no right or wrong answer as Walnut pointed out there are many different ways to post gains. I've been open with my investment approach in these many posts over the years. I'll stay in equities through "typical" recessions with some "timing" with smaller positions during these "interruptions". I've spelled out these moves and this year I sold and bought back. There was an 18% gain on the decline and currently, even with the drop today, I'm up 9% since buying a couple of months ago.
If I see the potential for a 50% decline, I'll sell out my equity position. I discussed my view on the possibility of a 50% drop recently.
In the interest of completeness, I'll add this. I also have a significant options trading activity. You need to have several million dollars to follow such a strategy and I do not include those activities in my posts here. It is a "reduced risk" option approach and my returns are in the 9-15% range with a fairly firm cap on both ends. I sell options and operate somewhat like the "house" in a betting casino. The returns were not any better than my equity returns over the past several years, but equity returns were unusually good. We may be facing a period of lower equity returns in the next few years since P/E's are high and my option trading will probably be better than straight equities.
One final thing. You noted above you are not trolling. Do you troll sometimes?
Duwayne, I visit these boards to get differing views on everything from the climate to politics and investing. I make comments, express opinions and ask questions. Over the years I have been given a lot of stuff to think about from many different members. Personally I do not think my comments or questions amount to trolling. I certainly hope others don't take it that way. |
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Post by Sigurdur on Aug 23, 2022 2:04:10 GMT
They aren't.
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Meanwhile, my mid-western University town location retains its decadal 85% markup. And St Louis continues its descent into Hell.