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Post by code on Aug 16, 2022 20:34:56 GMT
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Post by walnut on Aug 16, 2022 23:46:01 GMT
Those doom and gloom guys will scare you from ever making any significant money.
Hope you bought Costco back when I suggested it?
Actually I don't think that anyone knows what's going to happen two months out. It's probably ok to own some stock at June's price levels. |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 17, 2022 13:46:14 GMT
Those doom and gloom guys will scare you from ever making any significant money.
Hope you bought Costco back when I suggested it?
Actually I don't think that anyone knows what's going to happen two months out. It's probably ok to own some stock at June's price levels, you'll survive. Presently, I am a doom and gloom guy. And you are 100% correct I am not making any money. With that being said the market is still down about 4% from a year ago. I will be the first to admit I am more than a little surprised by the current Bear Market rally. Fundamentally, the market still looks bad to me. Inflation is far from under control at 8.5%. Stocks are still over valued and our debt is still too high and only going to get higher. I talked with my financial advisor this week. We still agree. Nothing makes sense. The Fed raises rates and the market goes up? Inflation is sky high and the market goes up? Adjusted earnings from Walmart and Home Depot "beat" and the market goes up? I'm not sure I would feel comfortable in this market that does not make sense to me. So I am staying the course and am going to stay in "preservation" mode. If it goes up and I miss gains I am good with that. If it goes down and things make more sense to me I will bottom feed. Until then I will just watch and wait. |
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Post by code on Aug 18, 2022 1:39:27 GMT
Those doom and gloom guys will scare you from ever making any significant money.
Hope you bought Costco back when I suggested it?
Actually I don't think that anyone knows what's going to happen two months out. It's probably ok to own some stock at June's price levels. Actually no. I jumped out of the market last November and have been sitting on my cash ever since, I've not lost any money and have actually made a few cents but no big profit. To be honest I'm still worried.
I plan on getting together with a next door neighbor on Saturday. He is a Financial Advisor | Assistant Vice President with Wells Fargo. We plan on discussing grain commodities.
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Post by walnut on Aug 18, 2022 1:59:21 GMT
The market priced in weak expected 2Q earnings. Earnings came out pretty good. Now with input costs coming down fairly solidly, retailers are in a nice position to earn higher margins for a time. It may be a "bear market rally", or it may be the beginning of another bull market run. I wouldn't label it yet myself, it's just unknowable. -----
Our hedge fund has been killing it. My partner is the single best trader that I have ever known. We are trying to get a full audit done, but still waiting on the Yankee accounting firm to get to us. Today they said in September. I think that we are a little too low on their totem pole. Their chief auditor already went over our books with his tests and said that everything looks ok. Still waiting though.
208% in about 2.5 years. That initial drop was the sharp covid crash.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 18, 2022 3:01:18 GMT
I do not come at this with the baggage of being an economist. Nor is my basket full of eggs that I am overly fond of. So far nobody has commented on the Peter Zeihan video(s) that I posted. The future is the table on which the investing game is played. As a geographer I like his approach to the problem(s). IF he is even partially correct on what is coming down, the current table is going away. This is not totally unexpected.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 18, 2022 17:54:36 GMT
Treasury I-Bonds look like a good investment right now. Return is pegged to the rate of inflation. Max of $10,000 person though. A good time to have a lot of kids.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 19, 2022 13:30:23 GMT
The housing market is one of the reasons why I think the current market run will not last and this is just a dead cat bounce. Inflation is still 8.5%, higher in most of Europe. Raising rates is the only ammo the Fed has to fight inflation. Everything already costs more due to the inflation, higher borrowing costs are only going to make it worse. With every rate increase a new mortgage costs more, education costs more, credit card bills go up. Personally I think the entire "soft landing" scenario is a myth. Cheap easy money has fueled our economy for the last 13 years. Cutting that off is tantamount to cutting off the fuel in your truck. Eventually it will sputter and die. So will our economy. Fuel price decreases, especially here in the U.S. will help but I think the die is cast. Mortgage lenders are in trouble, builders will be next, that will domino to Home Depot and Lowe's and layoffs will drive this market down. Stagflation is tough. Key word in the headline below is "plunge" www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/mortgage-lenders-are-starting-to-go-broke-as-loan-volumes-plunge |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 19, 2022 14:02:47 GMT
The market priced in weak expected 2Q earnings. Earnings came out pretty good. Now with input costs coming down fairly solidly, retailers are in a nice position to earn higher margins for a time. It may be a "bear market rally", or it may be the beginning of another bull market run. I wouldn't label it yet myself, it's just unknowable. -----
Our hedge fund has been killing it. My partner is the single best trader that I have ever known. We are trying to get a full audit done, but still waiting on the Yankee accounting firm to get to us. Today they said in September. I think that we are a little too low on their totem pole. Their chief auditor already went over our books with his tests and said that everything looks ok. Still waiting though.
208% in about 2.5 years. That initial drop was the sharp covid crash.
Walnut, my question would be can we have another bull market run with 8.5% inflation? And won't that just lead to more inflation? And while I must admit 208% in 2.5 years is a legendary ROI, the next 2.5 years is most likely going to be a much different investing environment than the past 2.5. I have a lot of respect for Michael Burry, he has made money in the market when few others have. I would say he is gifted with foresight few other investors can match. 13F filings revealed he has dumped almost all of his stocks. |
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Post by code on Aug 19, 2022 15:49:14 GMT
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Post by code on Aug 19, 2022 15:50:46 GMT
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Post by code on Aug 19, 2022 15:54:21 GMT
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Post by code on Aug 19, 2022 15:56:31 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 19, 2022 17:19:21 GMT
The housing market is one of the reasons why I think the current market run will not last and this is just a dead cat bounce. Inflation is still 8.5%, higher in most of Europe. Raising rates is the only ammo the Fed has to fight inflation. Everything already costs more due to the inflation, higher borrowing costs are only going to make it worse. With every rate increase a new mortgage costs more, education costs more, credit card bills go up. Personally I think the entire "soft landing" scenario is a myth. Cheap easy money has fueled our economy for the last 13 years. Cutting that off is tantamount to cutting off the fuel in your truck. Eventually it will sputter and die. So will our economy. Fuel price decreases, especially here in the U.S. will help but I think the die is cast. Mortgage lenders are in trouble, builders will be next, that will domino to Home Depot and Lowe's and layoffs will drive this market down. Stagflation is tough. Key word in the headline below is "plunge" www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/mortgage-lenders-are-starting-to-go-broke-as-loan-volumes-plungeNo relationship in the World is linear for long. Based strictly on national averages, the price of my 1800 ft2 home has increased ~88% since 2008. That and recent interest rate increases, have raised the financed cost of owning a similar home by nearly a $1000/month (~65%). Over the same time period, mean household income has increased by about 11%. Rental prices have followed the trend in house prices. This cannot continue for long. Home sales dived 6% in July. The trend is likely more than a temporary correction. Foreclosures during the 2009-11 crash lowered home prices considerably. Many who could not sell their homes or recover what they had financed, just walked away. Home prices remained in the toilet for several years. And construction collapsed with it. Bargains galore were to be had for years afterward in select areas after one weeded out "the dogs".
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Post by walnut on Aug 20, 2022 0:37:12 GMT
The market priced in weak expected 2Q earnings. Earnings came out pretty good. Now with input costs coming down fairly solidly, retailers are in a nice position to earn higher margins for a time. It may be a "bear market rally", or it may be the beginning of another bull market run. I wouldn't label it yet myself, it's just unknowable. -----
Our hedge fund has been killing it. My partner is the single best trader that I have ever known. We are trying to get a full audit done, but still waiting on the Yankee accounting firm to get to us. Today they said in September. I think that we are a little too low on their totem pole. Their chief auditor already went over our books with his tests and said that everything looks ok. Still waiting though.
208% in about 2.5 years. That initial drop was the sharp covid crash.
Walnut, my question would be can we have another bull market run with 8.5% inflation? And won't that just lead to more inflation? And while I must admit 208% in 2.5 years is a legendary ROI, the next 2.5 years is most likely going to be a much different investing environment than the past 2.5. I have a lot of respect for Michael Burry, he has made money in the market when few others have. I would say he is gifted with foresight few other investors can match. 13F filings revealed he has dumped almost all of his stocks. Like I said before, I don't have any real opinion about what the stock market will do over the next year. I personally am investing for long term and am not terribly worried about it. And our hedge fund trading is generally day-trading and swing trading.
My question for you is, if you really believe that inflation is going to continue to be a problem, why would you want to hold dollars? It's a government guaranteed 8.5% annual haircut lol. Compounded monthly.
I prefer to be in well managed businesses which can raise their selling prices and increase dividends, a better place to be over time. We can compare notes in 3 years.
My little hedge fund is doing much better than Burry's, which usually does shit. About like watching paint dry. He pretty much made all of his fund's fairly modest cumulative return in the 2020 crash. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Burry is a successful perma-bear. But that "investing style" does not work for most people. It usually derails wealth growth badly, and often leads to disaster when people try to call a top and short sell a high-flier. Or go long VIX futures etf's when the contango is over 10%. (That's a real fast way to end your trading career.) But they do it all the time.
The highway is littered with corpses of misguided perma-bears. I try not to let my cynicism (a trait which I share with most on this board) derail investing judgement. Don't bet against the US economy.
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