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Post by Sigurdur on Aug 23, 2022 2:06:14 GMT
Absolutely, 2009 was a very different thing. I did not buy and sell houses as a hedge against inflation. I purchased them cheap at foreclosure to turn a profit not to protect wealth against inflation. If I was worried about inflation I clearly would have held on to them. Duwayne, I am curious what is your investment strategy for the next few years? Are you going to stay in equities? Legitimate question, I am not trolling. There is no right or wrong answer as Walnut pointed out there are many different ways to post gains. I've been open with my investment approach in these many posts over the years. I'll stay in equities through "typical" recessions with some "timing" with smaller positions during these "interruptions". I've spelled out these moves and this year I sold and bought back. There was an 18% gain on the decline and currently, even with the drop today, I'm up 9% since buying a couple of months ago.
If I see the potential for a 50% decline, I'll sell out my equity position. I discussed my view on the possibility of a 50% drop recently.
In the interest of completeness, I'll add this. I also have a significant options trading activity. You need to have several million dollars to follow such a strategy and I do not include those activities in my posts here. It is a "reduced risk" option approach and my returns are in the 9-15% range with a fairly firm cap on both ends. I sell options and operate somewhat like the "house" in a betting casino. The returns were not any better than my equity returns over the past several years, but equity returns were unusually good. We may be facing a period of lower equity returns in the next few years since P/E's are high and my option trading will probably be better than straight equities.
One final thing. You noted above you are not trolling. Do you troll sometimes?
When I raised small grains, soybeans etc I found options to be very rewarding. The main item is to be on the correct side of diminishing time value. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 23, 2022 2:19:15 GMT
I've been open with my investment approach in these many posts over the years. I'll stay in equities through "typical" recessions with some "timing" with smaller positions during these "interruptions". I've spelled out these moves and this year I sold and bought back. There was an 18% gain on the decline and currently, even with the drop today, I'm up 9% since buying a couple of months ago.
If I see the potential for a 50% decline, I'll sell out my equity position. I discussed my view on the possibility of a 50% drop recently.
In the interest of completeness, I'll add this. I also have a significant options trading activity. You need to have several million dollars to follow such a strategy and I do not include those activities in my posts here. It is a "reduced risk" option approach and my returns are in the 9-15% range with a fairly firm cap on both ends. I sell options and operate somewhat like the "house" in a betting casino. The returns were not any better than my equity returns over the past several years, but equity returns were unusually good. We may be facing a period of lower equity returns in the next few years since P/E's are high and my option trading will probably be better than straight equities.
One final thing. You noted above you are not trolling. Do you troll sometimes?
When I raised small grains, soybeans etc I found options to be very rewarding. The main item is to be on the correct side of diminishing time value. I much prefer selling them to buying them. There is math involved to do it correctly. Basically, it only makes sense to sell overpriced options. Otherwise, the expected value is only equal to or less than $0. Bad bet. Given a stock price history, you can calculate an option value. Of course though, you cannot as easily calculate the value of the underlying security.
I don't do options trades that often, the options dealers were much less sophisticated in the 90's than they are today. It's a little harder now. They are basically never mis-priced anymore. If an option is overpriced, there is probably a good reason, and you'd better watch out.
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 23, 2022 3:43:04 GMT
you bring something to the table that's interesting Glen as such that's not trolling.
You like me, make flippant remarks in jest humour does not always travel well. Think of Ratty his humour for a NZer is great I'm not fully certain all on this site get it but respect is all that needed.
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Post by duwayne on Aug 23, 2022 13:07:30 GMT
I've been open with my investment approach in these many posts over the years. I'll stay in equities through "typical" recessions with some "timing" with smaller positions during these "interruptions". I've spelled out these moves and this year I sold and bought back. There was an 18% gain on the decline and currently, even with the drop today, I'm up 9% since buying a couple of months ago.
If I see the potential for a 50% decline, I'll sell out my equity position. I discussed my view on the possibility of a 50% drop recently.
In the interest of completeness, I'll add this. I also have a significant options trading activity. You need to have several million dollars to follow such a strategy and I do not include those activities in my posts here. It is a "reduced risk" option approach and my returns are in the 9-15% range with a fairly firm cap on both ends. I sell options and operate somewhat like the "house" in a betting casino. The returns were not any better than my equity returns over the past several years, but equity returns were unusually good. We may be facing a period of lower equity returns in the next few years since P/E's are high and my option trading will probably be better than straight equities.
One final thing. You noted above you are not trolling. Do you troll sometimes?
When I raised small grains, soybeans etc I found options to be very rewarding. The main item is to be on the correct side of diminishing time value. Sigurdur, you're right about taking the correct side of the diminishing time value or "gamma". That is one of the focuses of my approach. Another thing I take advantage of is the fact that people "bet" like they do on the lottery. They are willing to bet a limited amount of money on a big payout even though the odds are not in their favor. |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 25, 2022 1:15:56 GMT
 I sent this to my son who owes considerable student loan debt. He responded that his student loan debt identifies as aid to Ukraine, or Israel, Iraq, Afghanistan... Shit it kind of ruined the point I was trying to make. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 25, 2022 1:54:12 GMT
I sent this to my son who owes considerable student loan debt. He responded that his student loan debt identifies as aid to Ukraine, or Israel, Iraq, Afghanistan... Shit it kind of ruined the point I was trying to make. We should organize a tax revolt. They are beating us by terrorizing us one household at a time with their various 3 letter agencies. If we stand together, we can tell them to go pound sand. |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 28, 2022 20:54:31 GMT
I think that Fed Chair Jerome Powell just gave the bulls and those thinking there was still the possibility of a soft landing a wake up call. In his 8 minute speech he made it clear that Inflation was his primary focus and rates were only going to increase and then stay elevated for a long period of time. The markets finally responded rationally as reality set in. Buckle up, I think September is going to be a tough month both in the U.S. and abroad. Starting with Asia tonight.
Sigurdur could probably elaborate in better depth than I can but I suspect the harvest here and abroad will be less than stellar.
The days in the NH are getting shorter and Europe is going to have fuel issues not seen since WWII.
And then there is China who seems to be mired in an economic shit storm of their own creating.
Stay tuned...
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 10, 2022 1:01:18 GMT
The poor will always be with us. As will the wealthy. Those in the middle will soon find out how much the current wealth decline applies to them.  |
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 10, 2022 13:08:36 GMT
Europe is on the cusp of economic collapse. Germany is going to start using it's military to assist in patrolling the streets. The Swiss are considering imposing a 3 year jail term for those who are caught with their thermostats above 19C. The Belgium Prime Minister warned of a "severe risk of social unrest". In America the Fed is going to raise rates to painful levels in an attempt to slow the economy and reign in inflation.
If there was ever a time to seek investment safety it's now.
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Post by walnut on Sept 10, 2022 15:42:28 GMT
I found a deep deposit of #1 flagstone which is worth millions. That was fast and went without a hitch. It's like hitting a big gusher in the mining business. I can see the side of the bluff down to about 100', very good stone all the way down. And I always heard that there was no good stone left in the area.
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Post by Sigurdur on Sept 10, 2022 18:36:44 GMT
Excellent!! Now we know who to hit up for a grant. 😁
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 10, 2022 19:47:11 GMT
I found a deep deposit of #1 flagstone which is worth millions. That was fast and went without a hitch. It's like hitting a big gusher in the mining business. I can see the side of the bluff down to about 100', very good stone all the way down. And I always heard that there was no good stone left in the area. Do you own the land? If not, the owner will be happy to hear about that too.  |
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Post by walnut on Sept 10, 2022 19:57:08 GMT
I found a deep deposit of #1 flagstone which is worth millions. That was fast and went without a hitch. It's like hitting a big gusher in the mining business. I can see the side of the bluff down to about 100', very good stone all the way down. And I always heard that there was no good stone left in the area. Do you own the land? If not, the owner will be happy to hear about that too. Landowner lives in OKC. It works similar to an oil lease. Yes he is happy. A stroke of luck |
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Post by walnut on Sept 10, 2022 20:32:05 GMT
Excellent!! Now we know who to hit up for a grant. 😁 Why don't we organize SolarCycle25 into a legal non-profit corporation, and apply for a climate research grant. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 11, 2022 3:17:16 GMT
Excellent!! Now we know who to hit up for a grant. 😁 Why don't we organize SolarCycle25 into a legal non-profit corporation, and apply for a climate research grant. Nice thought, but I think they sic dobermans on the likes of us.
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