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Post by nonentropic on Apr 11, 2022 22:57:37 GMT
Historical Glen and even a significant fall of rain will alter little.
But it will be welcome I am sure!
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Apr 11, 2022 23:53:56 GMT
As of February 22, 2022, some 57% of the U.S. has some level of dry conditions. In the West, various levels drought in early 2022 is actually down from the end of 2021. There has been a substantial reduction in the total area in the two worst categories of drought, D3-4. As of March 2022, some 23% of the West is in D3-4 drought - which is down from nearly half of the region in December 2021.  |
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Apr 13, 2022 7:35:25 GMT
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Post by code on Apr 15, 2022 1:06:28 GMT
Snowed in my yard today and there are still some patches.
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Post by ratty on Apr 15, 2022 1:48:16 GMT
Snowed in my yard today and there are still some patches. |
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simon
New Member
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Post by simon on Apr 17, 2022 6:05:22 GMT
I was looking at Old Farmer's Almanac this week and their forecast for summer are for average temps and average precip for the eastern 2/3 of the country. This is contrary to NOAA's call for La Nina to continue this summer:
"La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall."
La Nina summers usually call for heat and drought. It will be interesting to see who is right on this one and how this plays out.
Professor David Dilley recently released his annual hurricane forecast which are always spot on:
"GWO’s senior research scientist Professor David Dilley says that “although 2022 will have fewer named storms than the record breaking 30 in 2020, and the 21 named storms in 2021 - the upcoming season (2022) will again be stronger than the long-term average of 12 named storms, and it will be more destructive than last year due to strong hurricanes landfalling in densely populated areas”. Professor Dilley is predicting 16 named storms in the Atlantic Basin - 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Expect 5 hurricane landfall hot spots in the Atlantic Basin this year. The United States will have at least 3 hurricane landfalls - 2 of them being major impact hurricanes."
Dilley is also predicting global cooling like Astro but his dates are from 2024-2065. He is also predicting a strong La Nina for 2024.
He has an annual winter forecast that I usually buy for about 10-15 quid and it is a steal if you ask me. His site is linked below.
NOAA's latest 6-10...enjoy the nice weather. Cheers mates!
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Post by ratty on Apr 17, 2022 6:24:46 GMT
There is a prediction to put in your calendars! What would be a good date to start checking?
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Apr 18, 2022 20:49:58 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 18, 2022 21:12:03 GMT
And another front keeping us in the 50s. But as all winter-long, the 10-day forecasts predict warm values, and they have been wrong every single time (that I remember).  It kinda works like a climate model. |
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Apr 18, 2022 22:41:09 GMT
And another front keeping us in the 50s. But as all winter-long, the 10-day forecasts predict warm values, and they have been wrong every single time (that I remember).  It kinda works like a climate model. As I predicted, a cold spring 2022 is here and La Niña conditions continues to be with us. Yet, several months ago, NOAA posted a release saying La Niña would transition into a La Nada (The Nothing) by now. But now NOAA reverses, and backed off and they are now forecasting La Niña expected to continue through the summer and possibly into the fall. That's because La Niña has remained, here, well into April 2022. Moreover, March 2022 also tied for the coldest of the nine second-year La Niña events on record, for this time of year.  I continue to say that this weather of global cooling will become more prominent with the quiescent Sun (even during the maximum of solar cycle #25 coming up in the mid-2020s) Also, as forecast, this cold spring has prevented crop planting. See ->> www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/crop-watch-cold-spring-weather-prevents-early-us-planting-2022-04-14/ |
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Apr 19, 2022 4:59:37 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 19, 2022 11:57:22 GMT
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Post by Sigurdur on Apr 19, 2022 12:38:03 GMT
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Post by Sigurdur on Apr 19, 2022 12:38:33 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Apr 19, 2022 12:41:22 GMT
We have had two days of rain in Victoria.
The farmers in the North Western area [wheatbelt] are delighted.
Subsoil moisture is now fine after 50-70 mm of soaking rain.
At least there is somewhere in the world looking forward to a good grain crop.
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It kinda works like a climate model.
It kinda works like a climate model.
