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Post by missouriboy on Oct 18, 2021 15:44:53 GMT
We are just suffering peak stupidity at the moment. I have a ghastly idea that the real pain is yet to come. Second that!  Peak Stupidity (P.S.) is often followed by the P.S.P (Peak Stupidity Plunge), where sanity returns to those that survive. |
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Post by ratty on Oct 18, 2021 22:53:45 GMT
Second that! Peak Stupidity (P.S.) is often followed by the P.S.P (Peak Stupidity Plunge), where sanity returns to those that survive. You keep you fingers crossed for that, Missouri. |
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Post by duwayne on Nov 2, 2021 2:32:35 GMT
"Testing the CMIP6 GCM Simulations versus Surface Temperature Records from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021:
High ECS Is Not Supported"
This paper provides evidence showing that most of the climate models run too hot.
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 2, 2021 13:27:12 GMT
"Testing the CMIP6 GCM Simulations versus Surface Temperature Records from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021:
High ECS Is Not Supported"
This paper provides evidence showing that most of the climate models run too hot.
I am beginning to think the models are structured to run too hot on purpose. Used to think it was error that would be corrected over time. Rather, the outcomes continue to get warmer. I am getting really tired of Agenda outcomes. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 2, 2021 20:07:24 GMT
"Testing the CMIP6 GCM Simulations versus Surface Temperature Records from 1980–1990 to 2011–2021:
High ECS Is Not Supported"
This paper provides evidence showing that most of the climate models run too hot.
I am beginning to think the models are structured to run too hot on purpose. Used to think it was error that would be corrected over time. Rather, the outcomes continue to get warmer. I am getting really tired of Agenda outcomes. I posted from NoTricksZone on the same subject in "the state of climate science" thread yesterday: solarcycle25com.proboards.com/thread/10/state-climate-science?page=8 |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 2, 2021 21:13:15 GMT
I am beginning to think the models are structured to run too hot on purpose. Used to think it was error that would be corrected over time. Rather, the outcomes continue to get warmer. I am getting really tired of Agenda outcomes. I posted from NoTricksZone on the same subject in "the state of climate science" thread yesterday: solarcycle25com.proboards.com/thread/10/state-climate-science?page=8A Picture has always been worth a 1000 words. And so it still is. The UAH is old. The downward break is upon us.  |
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 6, 2021 18:00:44 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Jan 13, 2022 21:56:45 GMT
It's time for an update on my global warming prediction from 2007. The prediction and rationale are covered in past postings on the MaxCon 1.0 thread.
The prediction was based on my belief that there would be a cool ocean current cycle over 2007-2037 that would offset CO2 warming. The UAH anomalies will remain flat and the average for 2007-2037 will be 0.1C
We are now halfway through the prediction period and the average anomaly is 0.1C as predicted.
I predicted the average PDO and ENSO would be on the cool side, similar to the last 30-year cool ocean current cycle of 1947-1977. The PDO so far has averaged -0.4C vs -0.3C in 1947-1977. MVENSO (multivariate ENSO) has averaged -0.7C vs -0.6C for 1947-1977.
Everything’s right on track so far, but as I have noted previously, my prediction was based on a continuation of atmospheric CO2 growth at the 2007 rate. So far, the rate has been higher. If the higher rate continues, the 2007-2037 UAH anomaly average is likely to creep up a tenth of a degree. |
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Post by Sigurdur on Jan 14, 2022 2:30:56 GMT
Duwayne: The slight increase in CO2 will not change the trajectory of your prediction.
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 15, 2022 17:24:02 GMT
Al Gore and CBS…..
Al Gore Still Preaching Climate Change: Need to Stop Using ‘Sky as an Open Sewer’
My hair hurts.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2022 20:01:35 GMT
Al Gore and CBS….. Al Gore Still Preaching Climate Change: Need to Stop Using ‘Sky as an Open Sewer’ My hair hurts. Replace 'Sky' with 'Politics'. |
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 16, 2022 8:04:25 GMT
Hi Dwayne, Trouble is others are quoting the average of GISS, HadCRUT etc. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/2022-global-temperature-forecastDate*Forecast*Actual 2022 1.09* n/a 2021 1.11 1.09 [avge. so far available] 2020 1.19 1.27 2019 1.18 1.24 2018 1.08 1.11 2017 1.14 1.19 2016 1.23 1.28 2015 1.03 1.15 2014 0.96 1.00 2013 0.96 0.94 2012 0.87 0.91 2011 0.83 0.87 2010 0.97 1.00 2009 0.83 0.92 2008 0.76 0.79 2007 0.93 0.91 The Met Office’s forecast for the 2021 global mean temperature, issued at the end of 2020 (0.99 °C to 1.23 °C with a central estimate of 1.11°C), agrees closely with the latest observations of global temperature so far this year. Data from Jan-Sept 2021 shows the global mean temperature is around 1.09⁰C above pre-industrial levels.
The global temperature series – which has been updated this year - is now an average of six datasets as used by the WMO and IPCC: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp, GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth and the ERA5 and JRA55 reanalyses. The use of these temperature series adds around 0.08°C on average to the global temperature since pre-industrial times compared to previous estimates. |
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Post by duwayne on Jan 16, 2022 20:54:46 GMT
Hi Dwayne, Trouble is others are quoting the average of GISS, HadCRUT etc. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/2022-global-temperature-forecastDate*Forecast*Actual 2022 1.09* n/a 2021 1.11 1.09 [avge. so far available] 2020 1.19 1.27 2019 1.18 1.24 2018 1.08 1.11 2017 1.14 1.19 2016 1.23 1.28 2015 1.03 1.15 2014 0.96 1.00 2013 0.96 0.94 2012 0.87 0.91 2011 0.83 0.87 2010 0.97 1.00 2009 0.83 0.92 2008 0.76 0.79 2007 0.93 0.91 The Met Office’s forecast for the 2021 global mean temperature, issued at the end of 2020 (0.99 °C to 1.23 °C with a central estimate of 1.11°C), agrees closely with the latest observations of global temperature so far this year. Data from Jan-Sept 2021 shows the global mean temperature is around 1.09⁰C above pre-industrial levels.
The global temperature series – which has been updated this year - is now an average of six datasets as used by the WMO and IPCC: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp, GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth and the ERA5 and JRA55 reanalyses. The use of these temperature series adds around 0.08°C on average to the global temperature since pre-industrial times compared to previous estimates. Neilhamp, as you know, the approach the Met Office uses for their prediction comparisons are quite different than mine. Their predictions are for 1 year ahead, mine are for 30 years ahead. If you look at the Met Office predictions from 15 years ago, they aren't close.
If you add the errors up for the past 21 years (from the link you provided) they are warm by 0.42C in total which indicates a tendency to overestimate warming, even against the actual numbers later reported by the Met Office and their kinship.
I use UAH satellite anomalies because I believe they better reflect the actual global temperatures. I'll make another post later to discuss why.
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Post by blustnmtn on Aug 11, 2022 19:09:05 GMT
I guess we should shut down this forum. Another super hero comparable to Al Gore himself to the Earth’s rescue! Aqua man has spoken:
Jason Momoa Says ‘Aquaman’ Sequel Is a Climate Change Allegory ‘To Bring Awareness of What Is Happening to Our Planet’
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 11, 2022 19:15:31 GMT
I guess we should shut down this forum. Another super hero comparable to Al Gore himself to the Earth’s rescue! Aqua man has spoken: Jason Momoa Says ‘Aquaman’ Sequel Is a Climate Change Allegory ‘To Bring Awareness of What Is Happening to Our Planet’ Hope Aquaman brought some spare diapers. |
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