Climate science discussion

[blustnmtn]

www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/10/carbion_dioxide_does_not_cause_warming.html

“There are two trees of gas physics: the professorial-theoretical tree in academia, beginning in 1662, and real-world gas physics, taught by private-sector engineers, beginning in 1836. The professorial tree began in 1662 with Boyle’s law (pv=k, higher the pressure, lower the volume). American Meter company engineers invented the gas meter in 1836, the same dual-bellows meter that sits in front of your home. That began the non-theoretical tree, which is supported by real science — testing.”

[ratty]

In the Land Down Under the media is becoming obsessed with the prospect of drought, fire and high temperatures.

Every classroom should have one of these charts on its wall to give students some perspective - when talk turns to climate change - on just how dry Australia is:

Click anywhere on the image for a bigger version ....



Source

[missouriboy]

Note that Australia's wet-dry sequence is also approximately a 60-year cycle.  The Big Dry starting about 1976 coincides with what is referred to as the 1976 climate shift ... when the northern hemisphere went warm. 

Note comparison of 5-Year reverse SOI (think ENSO) from 1876.  Positive El Nino.  Negative La Nina.

[Sigurdur]

www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1297

Radiative Energy Flux Variation from 2001–2020

[blustnmtn]

I continue to believe U.H.I. is a largely overlooked/underestimated "thumb" on the scale with regards to the "temperature" record. The temperature at my home is always lower than the reported temperature for my zip code which is officially measured at the airport! NYC is a huge contaminant for the whole region as all major metro areas are. Dr. Spencer has a new paper dealing with U.H.I. in the U.S.:

www.drroyspencer.com/2023/10/new-paper-submission-urban-heat-island-effects-in-u-s-summer-temperatures-1880-2015/

[missouriboy]

Another extreme in the cyclone world.  Hard to tag this one on Charles Oscar ... but they'll give it the old believer effort.

I remember there was a big northward moving hurricane (pierced SE Missouri) in 2012 that broke the dry summer dome.  Same point SC24.  Amazing how weather-climate events may recur to some extent in conjunction with solar dynamics.

[ratty]

'Uncharted territory': climate scientists sound alarm over Earth's vital signs

In 2023, we witnessed an extraordinary series of climate-related records being broken around the world. The rapid pace of change has surprised scientists and caused concern about the dangers of extreme weather, risky climate feedback loops, and the approach of damaging tipping points sooner than expected (Armstrong McKay et al. 2022, Ripple et al. 2023). This year, exceptional heat waves have swept across the world, leading to record high temperatures. The oceans have been historically warm, with global and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures both breaking records and unprecedented low levels of sea ice surrounding Antarctica (figure 1a–1d). In addition, June through August of this year was the warmest period ever recorded, and in early July, we witnessed Earth's highest global daily average surface temperature ever measured, possibly the warmest temperature on Earth over the past 100,000 years (figure 1e). It is a sign that we are pushing our planetary systems into dangerous instability.

The names Minoan, Roman, and Medieval come to mind.

[Sigurdur]

[ratty]

More from Dr Roy on UHI with a scary cover picture ...

Examples from our New UAH Urban Heat Island Dataset

[gridley]

Nov 8, 2023 10:42:30 GMT ratty said:

More from Dr Roy on UHI with a scary cover picture ...

Examples from our New UAH Urban Heat Island Dataset

Looking at the tall tower on the right I immediately thought "Orthanc"...

[missouriboy]

Nov 1, 2023 14:05:55 GMT Sigurdur said:

Find of the year Sig.    Any contacts for this guy?  And the 2019 paper he mentions?

Answer to my question ...  partial from a search for Mike Wallace hydrologist at DuckDuckGo

Sandia National Laboratories -  I can find him.

www.abeqas.com/about-mwa/

www.researchgate.net/profile/Mike-Wallace-3

joannenova.com.au/2015/01/oceans-not-acidifying-scientists-hid-80-years-of-ph-data/

www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/blog/bizventures/2015/02/startup-aims-to-predict-water-levels-months-if-not.html

wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/11/solar-cycles-and-the-equatorial-trough-an-alternate-conceptual-model/

From the wattsupwiththat paper

[blustnmtn]

This Nic Lewis essay is from JC's website:

judithcurry.com/2023/11/06/hansens-latest-overheated-global-warming-claims-are-based-on-bad-science/

"James Hansen’s latest paper “Global warming in the pipeline” (Hansen et al. (2023)) has already been heavily criticized in a lengthy comment by Michael Mann, author of the original IPCC ‘hockey stick’. However Mann does not deal with Hansen’s surprisingly high (4.8°C) new estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)[1]. This ECS estimate is 60% above Hansen’s longstanding[2] previous estimate of 3°C. It is Hansen’s new, very high ECS estimate drives, in conjunction with various questionable subsidiary assumptions, his paper’s dire predictions of high global warming and its more extreme concluding policy recommendations, such as ‘solar radiation management’ geoengineering.


Hansen’s new 4.8°C ECS estimate is well above the best estimate of 3°C reached in the IPCC’s latest scientific assessment report (AR6), lies outside the AR6 likely (66%) range of 2.5–4°C and is almost at the top of the AR6 90% uncertainty range of 2–5°C.[3]"

When Michael "Hockey Stick Mann" criticizes your methods for predicting burning earth, you must be really out there!

[douglavers]

Apparently, auroras are going to be visible as far South as UK Birmingham this weekend, due to another large CME.

This must follpw the weakening of the planetary magnetic field, which has been known to be diminishing over the last decades.

Does anyone know where a graph of this weakening can be found?

I have a sort of suspicion that this info is being suppressed, as the prospect of an imminent flip of the poles should terrify anyone who thinks about it.

[ratty]

Nov 11, 2023 21:59:10 GMT douglavers said:

Apparently, auroras are going to be visible as far South as UK Birmingham this weekend, due to another large CME.

This must follow the weakening of the planetary magnetic field, which has been known to be diminishing over the last decades.

Does anyone know where a graph of this weakening can be found?

I have a sort of suspicion that this info is being suppressed, as the prospect of an imminent flip of the poles should terrify anyone who thinks about it.

Maybe start here: Magnetosphere Graph Tutorial

From another place: "For example, we know that over the past 200 years, the magnetic field has weakened about 9 percent on a global average. However, paleomagnetic studies show the field is actually about the strongest it’s been in the past 100,000 years, and is twice as intense as its million-year average."

[flearider]

Nov 11, 2023 23:26:44 GMT ratty said:

Nov 11, 2023 21:59:10 GMT douglavers said:

Apparently, auroras are going to be visible as far South as UK Birmingham this weekend, due to another large CME.

This must follow the weakening of the planetary magnetic field, which has been known to be diminishing over the last decades.

Does anyone know where a graph of this weakening can be found?

I have a sort of suspicion that this info is being suppressed, as the prospect of an imminent flip of the poles should terrify anyone who thinks about it.

Maybe start here: Magnetosphere Graph Tutorial

From another place: "For example, we know that over the past 200 years, the magnetic field has weakened about 9 percent on a global average. However, paleomagnetic studies show the field is actually about the strongest it’s been in the past 100,000 years, and is twice as intense as its million-year average."

9% your a little behind more like 18-23% and it's speeding up .. they recon between 2035-2045 it will flip ... i've got popcorn rdy for that one .. if i'm still here ..