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Post by neilhamp on Mar 2, 2022 15:08:15 GMT
In March the sea ice has dropped below 2010's average for the first time since August 2021 !
This table now kept up to date at the bottom of this page | Month | Position | Difference from 2010's average | Position | Difference from 2010's average |
| 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | | Jan. 31st. | 7th.lowest | +79,452 sq.km. | 16th.lowest | +333,064 sq.km. | | Feb. 28th. | 7th.lowest | -161,829 sq.km. | 11th.lowest | +116,764 sq.km. | | Mar. 31st./17th. | 6th.lowest | -296,133 sq.km. | 5th.lowest | -229,659 sq.km |
I will continue to update the data through March 2022 Sea ice extent reached its maximum on 16th March 2021. Now heading downwards for 2022 !
Looks like it reached its maximum for 2022 back in February
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Post by Sigurdur on Mar 2, 2022 16:09:50 GMT
Yep.
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Post by nonentropic on Mar 2, 2022 17:41:28 GMT
watch out for wind its far more of a driver than temperature
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 6, 2022 6:57:37 GMT
Sea ice now dropped well below 2010's average !
Chart and table kept up to date on next post
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 18, 2022 7:43:52 GMT
In March the sea ice has dropped below 2010's average for the first time since August 2021 ! (See chart below) | Month | 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Position | Difference from 2010's average | Position | Difference from 2010's average | | Jan.31st. | 7th.lowest | +79,452 sq.km. | 16th.lowest | +333,064 sq.km. | | Feb.28th | 7th.lowest | -161,829 sq.km. | 11th.lowest | +116,764 sq.km | | Mar.31st./30th. | 6th.lowest | -296,133 sq.km. | 10th.lowest | -127,470 sq.km. |
I will continue to update the data through March 2022 (last date of update shown in month column above) 
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Post by duwayne on Mar 20, 2022 18:16:45 GMT
In March the sea ice has dropped below 2010's average for the first time since August 2021 ! (See chart below) | Month | 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Position | Difference from 2010's average | Position | Difference from 2010's average | | Jan.31st. | 7th.lowest | +79,452 sq.km. | 16th.lowest | +333,064 sq.km. | | Feb.28th | 7th.lowest | -161,829 sq.km. | 11th.lowest | +116,764 sq.km | | Mar.31st./18th. | 6th.lowest | -296,133 sq.km. | 6th.lowest | -248,097 sq.km. |
I will continue to update the data through March 2022 (last date of update shown in month column above)  Neilhamp, as a close watcher of sea ice trends, do you believe the sea ice minimum for either pole will reach zero at some point in the next few decades? |
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 23, 2022 11:04:01 GMT
Hi Duwayne,
I think Arctic reached its minimum back in 2012.
If I am right, ice extent will start to increase over the next 30 years.
Busy today.
Will explain why when I have more time.
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rizzo
New Member
Posts: 6
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Post by rizzo on Mar 23, 2022 12:02:00 GMT
Hi Duwayne, I think Arctic reached its minimum back in 2012. If I am right, ice extent will start to increase over the next 30 years. Busy today. Will explain why when I have more time. Hope you do so as soon as you can. |
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 24, 2022 8:35:52 GMT
Duwayne and Rizzo,
I posted this image about 6 months ago.
The top graph shows Arctic temperatures from 1920 to 2021
The next graph shows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) from 1920 to 2021
The bottom graph shows Arctic Sea Ice extent for September from 1979 to 2021
All are aligned year by year.
The AMO has shown the up and down movement consistently for 150 years.
Arctic temperatures go up and down with the AMO
The AMO has been increasing from 1975 through to 2007. It and has now reached its maximum.
I believe it will start to fall over the next few years.
The sea ice extent has shown no downward trend since the AMO reach it maximum in about 2007.
Likewise, there has been no rise in Arctic temperatures.
As the AMO starts to fall I expect the Artic temperature will start to fall and the sea ice extent will start to rise.
Hopefully we should see the AMO drop below zero in the next 2/3 years. Once below zero it should stay there for about 25 years.
If and when this occurs it will be very interesting to see what happens in the Arctic.
Global temperatures also show a close correlation with AMO.
see www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1850/to:2022/plot/esrl-amo/from:1850/to:2022
We can only wait to see.
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Post by youngjasper on Mar 24, 2022 12:20:57 GMT
Good and interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing. I also like the graphs you posted with the decadal means. Although currently the Artic recently dipped below the 2010s, it has tracked above that mean and may return above it. Time will tell, but I will be following.
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Post by ratty on Mar 24, 2022 21:54:18 GMT
[ Snip ] Thanks for posting your research, Neil. |
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 24, 2022 21:56:37 GMT
I have to agree Neil. If it's bound to happen, I hope it shows its face soon enough to drive a serious stake in the hearts of serial warmists before they do some real damage. Albions may have to invest in thicker underwear.  Is that your graph Neil? That is a marvelous composition.
Duwayne and Rizzo,
I posted this image about 6 months ago.
The top graph shows Arctic temperatures from 1920 to 2021
The next graph shows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) from 1920 to 2021
The bottom graph shows Arctic Sea Ice extent for September from 1979 to 2021
All are aligned year by year.
The AMO has shown the up and down movement consistently for 150 years.
Arctic temperatures go up and down with the AMO
The AMO has been increasing from 1975 through to 2007. It and has now reached its maximum.
I believe it will start to fall over the next few years.
The sea ice extent has shown no downward trend since the AMO reach it maximum in about 2007.
Likewise, there has been no rise in Arctic temperatures.
As the AMO starts to fall I expect the Artic temperature will start to fall and the sea ice extent will start to rise.
Hopefully we should see the AMO drop below zero in the next 2/3 years. Once below zero it should stay there for about 25 years.
If and when this occurs it will be very interesting to see what happens in the Arctic.
Global temperatures also show a close correlation with AMO.
see www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1850/to:2022/plot/esrl-amo/from:1850/to:2022
We can only wait to see.
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Post by duwayne on Mar 25, 2022 0:09:43 GMT
Duwayne and Rizzo,
I posted this image about 6 months ago.
The top graph shows Arctic temperatures from 1920 to 2021
The next graph shows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) from 1920 to 2021
The bottom graph shows Arctic Sea Ice extent for September from 1979 to 2021
All are aligned year by year.
The AMO has shown the up and down movement consistently for 150 years.
Arctic temperatures go up and down with the AMO
The AMO has been increasing and has now reached its maximum.
I believe it will start to fall over the next few years.
The sea ice extent has shown no downward trend since the AMO reach it maximum in about 2007.
Likewise, there has been no rise in Arctic temperatures.
As the AMO starts to fall I expect the September sea ice extent will start to rise and Arctic temperatures will start to fall.
Hopefully we should see the AMO drop below zero in the next 2/3 years. Once below zero it should stay there for about 25 years.
If and when this occurs it will be very interesting to see what happens in the Arctic.
Global temperatures also show a close correlation with AMO.
see www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1850/to:2022/plot/esrl-amo/from:1850/to:2022
We can only wait to see.
Neilhamp, our predictions look pretty similar for the next several years and for the same reason. There is a 60-year Ocean Current Cycle which has a significant effect on global temperatures. My prediction dates back to 2007 and is described on the Old Board and in the MaxCon 1.0 thread on this Board.
As I've said previously, I believe the Climate Warmists will come to accept the Ocean Current Cycle effect some time in the future as global temperatures stay flat. They will do so because they'll need to explain away the flat temperatures without abandoning their claim of a significant greenhouse effect. They will then be anxious to focus on the fact that the Cycle will be turning to the warm phase. This will mean warming for 30 years from the turning point will be faster than it would have been from greenhouse gases alone.
The long term warming will be considerably less than the Warmists have predicted. My prediction through the end of the century is on the MaxCon 1.0 thread.
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Post by nonentropic on Mar 25, 2022 1:31:48 GMT
There is a lot hanging on this AMO for the world.
If it stays flat in temps we have just to be careful but should it fall enough not to hide there will be blood as they say in a famous oil movie.
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 25, 2022 6:53:37 GMT
The Met office are beginning to talk about the AMO. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/monitoring-one-of-the-biggest-drivers-of-europes-climateA new Met Office-led study – reviewing evidence from previous scientific papers and climate models – reveals natural patterns of weakening and strengthening of ocean currents which influence the UK’s weather and climate. In the North Atlantic lies one of the world’s largest climate mechanisms: a system of currents transporting relatively warm water from the tropics to the poles, with return currents at depth transporting colder, denser water further south. The transport of heat to the North Atlantic keeps the UK’s climate warmer than other locations at our latitude. The so-called Gulf Stream is part of the wider circulation, known by climate scientists as AMOC: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The study – published in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment today – shows that the AMOC doesn’t remain at the same strength and the authors highlight recent variability in the strength over time and also along its path, with sub-polar and sub-tropical stretches operating on independent cycles. |
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