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Post by ratty on Aug 26, 2022 7:59:59 GMT
Ratty, Still hoping it is going to stay close or above the 2021 levels Neil, do you see extent as a better indicator than area? |
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Post by gridley on Aug 26, 2022 11:19:27 GMT
Ratty, Still hoping it is going to stay close or above the 2021 levels Neil, do you see extent as a better indicator than area? Which one has more "seasonal adjustments"? :-( |
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 27, 2022 7:11:35 GMT
Hi Ratty,
My understanding is satellites first of all measure sea-ice extent.
Area is then calculated from extent by taking the percentages of sea ice within data cells.
It then adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice.(i.e. area)
I don't have a strong preference for either.
Extent is the easiest to follow because it is reported by more sources.
I tend to check volume next after extent. Yet another controversy!
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Post by ratty on Aug 27, 2022 8:20:54 GMT
Hi Ratty, My understanding is satellites first of all measure sea-ice extent. Area is then calculated from extent by taking the percentages of sea ice within data cells. It then adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice.(i.e. area) I don't have a strong preference for either. Extent is the easiest to follow because it is reported by more sources. I tend to check volume next after extent. Yet another controversy! Plenty of those about.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 27, 2022 21:29:23 GMT
Arctic ice growth and the temperature of Lake Superior (48 N Latitude) likely have a common source.
The graph above shows the lake’s average daily temperature for each year compared to the 1995-2021 average.
This year’s colder-than-normal temps started to emerge in early-Feb, where they’ve struggled ever since; so much so, in fact, that by July 19, 2022, the average surface temp was 47.5F (8.5C — only 1996 and 2014 exhibited colder readings on that date.
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 28, 2022 6:43:50 GMT
Is anyone offering any reason for the drop in temperature?
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Post by blustnmtn on Aug 28, 2022 12:41:08 GMT
Is anyone offering any reason for the drop in temperature? Climate change! |
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Post by walnut on Aug 28, 2022 13:37:49 GMT
Is anyone offering any reason for the drop in temperature? That's what I've been wondering ever since he posted that. All I can think of is cold air lol
Wind direction, fronts
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Post by flearider on Aug 28, 2022 15:08:38 GMT
Is anyone offering any reason for the drop in temperature? a semi active sun .. gone are the yrs of full force .. then we have the yr long la nina  |
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 28, 2022 17:09:06 GMT
My guesses are that heat loss is exceeding heat gain. Loss of inputs due to increasing cloud cover and very low UV. No data on wind, but heat losses due to evaporation may be up. Geomagnetic-AP values, which are a proxy for solar output, continue at historically low levels. As per Neil's forecast for Arctic sea ice, when the AMO turns, watch out. Until then, I think that it will continue it's incremental uptrend. The sound in the wind will be the gnashing of teeth.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 28, 2022 17:15:17 GMT
Is anyone offering any reason for the drop in temperature? Climate change! With a decidedly non-woke twist. Watch your back Bubba.  |
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Post by ratty on Aug 28, 2022 22:20:45 GMT
Is anyone offering any reason for the drop in temperature? That's what I've been wondering ever since he posted that. All I can think of is cold air lol Wind direction, fronts
Are you sure that is Missouri's preferred pronoun? |
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Post by walnut on Aug 28, 2022 23:18:04 GMT
That's what I've been wondering ever since he posted that. All I can think of is cold air lol Wind direction, fronts
Are you sure that is Missouri's preferred pronoun? 'He' frequently posts intelligent thoughts and analysis. So... |
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Post by Jane in the centre of England on Aug 29, 2022 7:27:49 GMT
My guesses are that heat loss is exceeding heat gain. Loss of inputs due to increasing cloud cover and very low UV. No data on wind, but heat losses due to evaporation may be up. Geomagnetic-AP values, which are a proxy for solar output, continue at historically low levels. As per Neil's forecast for Arctic sea ice, when the AMO turns, watch out. Until then, I think that it will continue it's incremental uptrend. The sound in the wind will be the gnashing of teeth.
What an amazing graph. Thank you for posting. It seems to say that geomagnetic activity is at its lowest continuous level since records began. This MUST have an effect on climate, but I have no idea where to start investigating it. The only other trend I have found, which shows the same pattern, is the cosmic ray monitor from the University of Oulu, cosmicrays.oulu.fi/. Cosmic rays have been at a historic high since 2004. Why do you think the AMO is going to turn?
And can you give a source for the graph, please.
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Post by neilhamp on Aug 29, 2022 16:04:33 GMT
Since August 2021, March is the ONLY MONTH in which the month end sea ice extent has fallen below the average for the 2010's decade| Month | 2021 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Position | Difference from 2010's avge. | Position | Difference from 2010's avge. |
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| Sq.Km. | | Jan.31st | 7th.lowest | +79,452 | 16th.lowest | +333,064 | | Feb.28th | 7th.lowest | -161,829 | 11th.lowest | +116,764 | | Mar.31st | 6th.lowest | -296,133 | 10th.lowest | -127,470 | | Apr.30th | 9th.lowest | +1,632 | 10th.lowest | +16,886 | | May.31st. | 7th.lowest | +64,174 | 15th.lowest | +395,097 | | Jun.30th. | 6th.lowest | -119,772 | 10th.lowest | +35,744 | | Jul.31st. | 5th.lowest | -147,168 | 11th.lowest | +218,102 | | Aug.31st. | 11th.lowest | +410,141 | 12th.lowest | +383,054 | | Sep.30th. | 10th.lowest | +146,160 | 7th.lowest | +116,000 |
Last year the minimum arrived on September 12th.
(Specially for you Ratty, decided to include Sea ice area as well as sea ice extent.)
Looks like minimum occurred on 16th. this year.
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