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Post by duwayne on Nov 29, 2023 19:18:24 GMT
There is a general consensus amongst NOAA and others that ENSO3.4 is going to peak soon and will decline significantly in the early part of 2024.
Is it possible that we will see a repeat of some other years when significant La Ninas followed immediately after an El Nino which peaked near the beginning of a new year?
Note: The 2020 line does not include the past several weeks of data
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Post by acidohm on Nov 29, 2023 20:38:11 GMT
This just a total bust for the "after 3 years of nino/neutral is gunna be hugest Nino evah" brigade.
Some of the airmasses near NE Europe are colder than have been seen in years....Copenhagen just broke a 100 year cold record. Not that you hear that much anywhere!
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 29, 2023 21:25:20 GMT
If you look at the weather in Western Europe its November its snowing/raining and the weather is coming from the west so not the bear from the east.
I lived there in the 70's and it was coldish, but generally from the west and usually above or about freezing, day and night. God forbid if an easterly set in.
We had a bath in the back yard half full of water, don't ask why, in one night it froze solid. Wind of 15Knts and -20C very unforgiving. All you folk in the US know this stuff but very cold.
Its the Gulf Stream that saves Europe from permafrost has it dialed down a bit.
The other observation is that I assumed until recently, most of the depression running into the UK were generated in the North Atlantic. The reality is they are remnants of the Saharan wave that slide of West Africa run to the Caribbean and threaten the US East Coast but miss, then run around towards Europe. Hence "warm" they have taken a solid downward step in temperatures.
Is this a longer run thing.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 29, 2023 22:23:44 GMT
This just a total bust for the "after 3 years of nino/neutral is gunna be hugest Nino evah" brigade. Some of the airmasses near NE Europe are colder than have been seen in years....Copenhagen just broke a 100 year cold record. Not that you hear that much anywhere! Some are going to eat significant crow sometime in the not-so-distant future. As go the oceans ... so goes the climate. Oceans give every indication they are cooling. Indian ocean just gave a blob of heat to the western warm pool with that negative IOD. PDO seems to have retreated westward. Less ompuff in the circulation. The western warm pool may be cooler ... but they don't seem to release temps for the heart of the beast. But you can see it in GODAS Upper Oceans maps ... but no averages. Colder Western N. America as PDO warm flow continues closer to the West Pacific.
Europe is just currently unlucky. If that big Eastern Europe blob retreats ... the pulse could move west. I am encouraged to note the Jackwoke "powers that be" retreating these past months ... when cash was required ... a few more sane business people just decided they weren't going to pay. . Cash and common sense finally trump woke-ism.
Looks like Middle-Earth will get a decent soaking over the next few days. This hay season was thin for my cattle man. Even the natives grasses held off their growth. But the many-year restored native grassland is underway.(on its way).
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 29, 2023 22:30:29 GMT
If you look at the weather in Western Europe its November its snowing/raining and the weather is coming from the west so not the bear from the east. I lived there in the 70's and it was coldish, but generally from the west and usually above or about freezing, day and night. God forbid if an easterly set in. We had a bath in the back yard half full of water, don't ask why, in one night it froze solid. Wind of 15Knts and -20C very unforgiving. All you folk in the US know this stuff but very cold. Its the Gulf Stream that saves Europe from permafrost has it dialed down a bit. The other observation is that I assumed until recently, most of the depression running into the UK were generated in the North Atlantic. The reality is they are remnants of the Saharan wave that slide of West Africa run to the Caribbean and threaten the US East Coast but miss, then run around towards Europe. Hence "warm" they have taken a solid downward step in temperatures. Is this a longer run thing. I think it's getting to be a safer wager all the time. Much depends on SC26. But SC25 has all the makings of continued net cooling ... to which was added a little liquid insulation of unknown duration and effect. |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 29, 2023 22:40:05 GMT
If you look at the weather in Western Europe its November its snowing/raining and the weather is coming from the west so not the bear from the east. I lived there in the 70's and it was coldish, but generally from the west and usually above or about freezing, day and night. God forbid if an easterly set in. We had a bath in the back yard half full of water, don't ask why, in one night it froze solid. Wind of 15Knts and -20C very unforgiving. All you folk in the US know this stuff but very cold. Its the Gulf Stream that saves Europe from permafrost has it dialed down a bit. The other observation is that I assumed until recently, most of the depression running into the UK were generated in the North Atlantic. The reality is they are remnants of the Saharan wave that slide of West Africa run to the Caribbean and threaten the US East Coast but miss, then run around towards Europe. Hence "warm" they have taken a solid downward step in temperatures. Is this a longer run thing. Weather in Europe not coming from west atm Non...?  BFTE is quite an extreme weather event, similar to a hurricane hitting a coastline. Easterly/Northerly winds aren't that uncommon but may absent for entire winters. 2009/2010 winters were Northerly winds. Not Easterly. We are very much maritime moderated however in the temps we experience as opposed to continental. This is as much as how the Atlantic modifies our predominant weather pattern as much as supplying the warmth to us. The patterns which result in Northerly/Easterly airflow are under constant attack from the westerly motion of moisture laden air from Atlantic. This is part driven by Coriolis effect, in hand with jetstream. Indeed the gulf stream flow is coriolis effect also? |
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 29, 2023 22:58:14 GMT
Its going to be very cold but up till now its been depressions slamming in from the west but with snow in amongst the rain so about freezing. But agree its going cold and has started of cooler than normal.
Look at the ski season Europe, its November still.
My Daughter is currently at Sunpeaks Canada cold but very little snow. To the point she has had 4 days in Seattle to visit a friend on a rowing scholarship. She has been floored by the facilities sensational actually, I think back to the years here in Auckland where their squad would walk their boats through the mud in the dark to the waters edge to row into the dawn. Still a lot of rowing medals come out of the hard conditions.
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Post by ratty on Nov 29, 2023 23:49:02 GMT
This just a total bust for the "after 3 years of nino/neutral is gunna be hugest Nino evah" brigade. Some of the airmasses near NE Europe are colder than have been seen in years....Copenhagen just broke a 100 year cold record. Not that you hear that much anywhere! Some are going to eat significant crow sometime in the not-so-distant future. As go the oceans ... so goes the climate. Oceans give every indication they are cooling. Indian ocean just gave a blob of heat to the western warm pool with that negative IOD. PDO seems to have retreated westward. Less ompuff in the circulation. The western warm pool may be cooler ... but they don't seem to release temps for the heart of the beast. But you can see it in GODAS Upper Oceans maps ... but no averages. Colder Western N. America as PDO warm flow continues closer to the West Pacific.
Europe is just currently unlucky. If that big Eastern Europe blob retreats ... the pulse could move west. I am encouraged to note the Jackwoke "powers that be" retreating these past months ... when cash was required ... a few more sane business people just decided they weren't going to pay. . Cash and common sense finally trump woke-ism.
Looks like Middle-Earth will get a decent soaking over the next few days. This hay season was thin for my cattle man. Even the natives grasses held off their growth. But the many-year restored native grassland is underway.(on its way).
The IOD is currently positive according to the BoM: " The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. It is currently tracking as a strong event. " Heavy rainfall (300mm) continues over parts of SE Australia. |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 1, 2023 22:47:58 GMT
There are strange things afoot in the Indo-Pacific oceans. IOD has made a shift into more negative events (warmer water east) in the last couple of cycles). The heat is sinking back to the core ... the Western Warm Pool ... where warm water settles until it drops east as a gravity wave, or is taken into the N. Pacific. The first Quazi 60-YR cycle from SC19. Lots of things seem to happen there. Another about 1900-10.
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Post by ratty on Dec 2, 2023 0:22:02 GMT
There are strange things afoot in the Indo-Pacific oceans. IOD has made a shift into more negative events (warmer water east) in the last couple of cycles). The heat is sinking back to the core ... the Western Warm Pool ... where warm water settles until it drops east as a gravity wave, or is taken into the N. Pacific. The first Quazi 60-YR cycle from SC19. Lots of things seem to happen there. Another about 1900-10.
Missouri, the BoM still has the IOD strongly positive: BoM IOD |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 2, 2023 3:05:20 GMT
You're right. Mine is a 13-Mth running average and the last couple of years were heavily negative. Now positive for the last few. AND this chart doesn't include parts of 2023.
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Post by ratty on Dec 2, 2023 4:38:37 GMT
You're right. Mine is a 13-Mth running average and the last couple of years were heavily negative. Now positive for the last few. AND this chart doesn't include parts of 2023. might explain it ....  |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 3, 2023 20:47:43 GMT
I have noticed that at the beginning of solar cycles warm water in the Eastern Indian Ocean (negative IOD) shifts into the Western Warm Pool where it fuels the warm gravity wave that travels eastward and cycles back into a leading-edge El Nino. Below, I discuss the IOD data trends and then show a GODAS Pacific cross-section to 1000 meters for the first month of SC23 (Aug. 1996) and SC24 (Dec. 2008).
Indo-Pacific Heat Engine Mechanics
Indian Ocean Dipole (1871-2023) –
Low Solar Cycles 13-15 (Centennial Minimum, ca. 1880-1912), Dipole was strongly negative. Warmer water largely in the East Indian Ocean. Period of extreme droughts in East Africa.
Stronger Solar Cycles 16-19 ca. 1913-1950. Dipole was slightly negative to neutral on average with warmer water closer to East Africa.
Largely stronger Cycles 20-24 ca. 1950-2020. Dipole becomes more positive over greater periods of time during stronger solar cycles. Fewer intense droughts in East Africa.
Low Solar Cycles 24-25 ca. 2019-present. Intense positive Dipole in 2019 followed by a collapse into strong negative in 2020.
Note the Dipole value similarity between Cycles 13-15 and 24-25. PDO largely negative in both periods. New minimum. PDO largely positive during sets of strong solar cycles. Great Climate Shift of 1976 apparent in positive PDO values through 1998.
Strong Negative IOD results in a shift of warm Indian Ocean waters into the Western Warm Pool of the Pacific Ocean at the start of a new solar cycles.
 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/monthly.shtml  |
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Post by ratty on Dec 17, 2023 22:47:30 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 18, 2023 22:46:06 GMT
Atmospheric Heat Mechanics:
Note how Outgoing long wave radiation and tradewinds decline during El Ninos. Could El Ninos create higher cloud cover, which in turn, cut down the Outgoing ... thus raising tropospheric temperatures ... just like we see in the UAH atmospheric temperature time series?
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Is it possible that we will see a repeat of some other years when significant La Ninas followed immediately after an El Nino which peaked near the beginning of a new year?
