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Post by missouriboy on Oct 4, 2023 19:12:13 GMT
The American people do not want a government shutdown period the end. It did not work in 2013 when Ted Cruz tried it, it won't work in November. The Republicans will own it and all the Democrats have to do is say the Republicans shut it down they can reopen it anytime they want. There are far too many government employees and contracts and as the American people start to feel the pain the more they will turn on the Republicans. A shutdown is not an effective strategy and if they are stupid enough to try it again in November they will pay at the polls. Yes we have deep seated, serious over spending issues. But shutting down the government is not an affective method of dealing with those issues. It backfired the last time it was tried it will backfire again. That is the reality of it... Our duly elected leaders extended the debt ceiling in 2017, 2018 and 2019 during the Trump administration so it is not like the Republicans have been the model of fiscal responsibility when they were in power either. Agreed. But you may not have to shut down the government in order to potentially de-fund a few selected parts of it. Pick a "few" of the most egregious parts and attempt de-fund them. Be creative. If the Senate does not agree, then the likely nay sayers will likely be democrats. Or am I way off base?
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Post by justme on Oct 4, 2023 19:51:43 GMT
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Post by justme on Oct 4, 2023 20:12:52 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Oct 4, 2023 21:32:21 GMT
He’s trolling. DJT isn’t going to be the speaker of the house. Jim Jordan might though. |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 4, 2023 21:33:34 GMT
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Post by ratty on Oct 4, 2023 22:26:24 GMT
... and the major US indices are up?
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Post by walnut on Oct 4, 2023 23:24:01 GMT
... and the major US indices are up? Dead cat bounce |
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Post by walnut on Oct 4, 2023 23:44:23 GMT
I'll say again, US 10-20 yr bonds are looking real good for a swing trade or locking in some actually decent yield. 10 year corporates at 6.5% YTM are easy to find in lower investment grade. If the fed condemns us to a recession ( I think that event horizon is now in the rear view mirror) those bonds will go up +25%.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 4, 2023 23:56:03 GMT
I'll say again, US 10-20 yr bonds are looking real good for a swing trade or locking in some actually decent yield. 10 year corporates at 6.5% YTM are easy to find in lower investment grade. If the fed condemns us to a recession ( I think that event horizon is now in the rear view mirror) those bonds will go up +25%. Missouri guaranteed 3-Year annuities are going for 5%. Haven't seen that since the 1990s. |
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Post by walnut on Oct 5, 2023 13:32:46 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 5, 2023 16:01:16 GMT
The market seems to be coming down to reality with the exception of some tech stocks. As higher/longer appears to be the plan from the Fed one would expect more and more people to choose the relative safety of guaranteed 5% and leave the volatility of equities. An entire generation of youngsters think 12-15 percent gains in the market is normal and would last forever. Some of the younger generation have never invested in a CD, annuity or even savings account as the Fed has punished savers for the better part of the last several decades. It will be interesting to see how these younger generations react to the new norm.
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Post by walnut on Oct 5, 2023 16:27:11 GMT
The market seems to be coming down to reality with the exception of some tech stocks. As higher/longer appears to be the plan from the Fed one would expect more and more people to choose the relative safety of guaranteed 5% and leave the volatility of equities. An entire generation of youngsters think 12-15 percent gains in the market is normal and would last forever. Some of the younger generation have never invested in a CD, annuity or even savings account as the Fed has punished savers for the better part of the last several decades. It will be interesting to see how these younger generations react to the new norm. What I am concerned about is that 20 year bond rates defy the experts and just keep going higher. Your "safe" mutual fund bond investment could easily tank 30% and basically never come back, 1980's style. Yes, individual bonds do eventually come back to face value, but the math on bond funds is grey in that way. |
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 5, 2023 18:12:13 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 5, 2023 18:54:57 GMT
This guy kind of sums it up for me. He covers quite a few topics and while neither of us believe a crash like 1987 is coming there are similarities. I have been defensive for the last two years thinking we were entering a different kind of market era. And while it has not been as bad as I thought up to this point it's starting to feel a little eerie.
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Post by blustnmtn on Oct 5, 2023 19:01:13 GMT
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