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Post by douglavers on Jul 20, 2021 23:31:20 GMT
Confucious think that hungry people with nukes not good.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 21, 2021 20:32:26 GMT
BoM latest: The ENSO Outlook is INACTIVE. This means the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral with little indication that El Niño or La Niña will develop in the coming months, with most ENSO indices at neutral levels. While three of the seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest there is potential for a La Niña to form in spring, the majority maintain neutral conditions until the end of 2021.Does BoM want to change their mind? Cindy says its a go and it ain't waiting till spring. She thinks their models need a lube job.   |
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Post by acidohm on Jul 27, 2021 20:59:47 GMT
Sub surface brewing....  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 28, 2021 11:00:42 GMT
Acid. What is the link to these pages? I seem to have misplaced it. |
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Post by duwayne on Jul 28, 2021 14:08:26 GMT
Acid. What is the link to these pages? I seem to have misplaced it.
Everything seems to be moving toward a second leg La Nina.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 28, 2021 17:00:12 GMT
Acid. What is the link to these pages? I seem to have misplaced it. I see D has put link, I just search ENSO update, it's first hit. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 28, 2021 17:06:47 GMT
Acid. What is the link to these pages? I seem to have misplaced it. Everything seems to be moving toward a second leg La Nina.
Just as history suggested it should. Thanks duwayne. Note that La Ninas seem most deeply (cold) developed in the Central and Eastern Pacific (Nino Region 3) during and following weak solar cycles (SC20 & SC24-25). We appear to be entering one of those now. I expect strong lower troposphere effects.  |
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 29, 2021 9:30:38 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 29, 2021 17:00:43 GMT
That's a very healthy vortex, SSW take quite a while to affect our weather, 4-6 weeks sometimes. Nothing has cropped up on my twitter feed, it usually gives a good heads up. |
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Post by ratty on Aug 3, 2021 23:40:44 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 4, 2021 4:18:38 GMT
Strike 2!  |
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 4, 2021 9:02:12 GMT
SOI jumpy
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 4, 2021 17:44:24 GMT
It was supposedly a large positive IOD that was claimed as stimulating the huge Chinese floods of last year. Now more Chinese floods this year under a moderately negative IOD. So much for claimed assumptions? Too many failed models to keep track of.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 7, 2021 23:50:00 GMT
All Nino Regions heading down since the end of June. Nino 3 currently at -0.2.
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Astromet
Level 3 Rank
Meanwhile, here in the real world...
Posts: 168
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Post by Astromet on Aug 8, 2021 0:05:06 GMT
Following June ENSO conditions, UAH tropics and global troposphere anomalies for June should be steady or up slightly before dropping again into fall and winter. How deep? We need a poll. La Nina is going to return this fall, and will extend into winter 2021-2022 as I forecast 10 years ago for this time upcoming. |
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