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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 9, 2021 17:54:06 GMT
Now I see them. What happened? You noticed. The NSA decided not to withhold valid information from you........................for now. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 9, 2021 18:48:42 GMT
Now I see them. What happened? You noticed. The NSA decided not to withhold valid information from you........................for now. Don’t worry though Mo’boy…If you’re not on their list I’ll loose respect for you 😁 |
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Post by ratty on Jul 10, 2021 4:37:55 GMT
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Post by code on Jul 11, 2021 16:05:26 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 11, 2021 18:38:12 GMT
Agreed. I really must make time to fire it.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 13, 2021 17:30:42 GMT
The Great ENSO Atmospheric Heat Pump
This concept has bounced around in my mind for some time, and the latest post on CO2 and Climate brought it back to mind. Obserations: El Ninos (warm water in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean) invariably result in a tropical-global lower troposphere temperature heat spike as measured by UAH. La Ninas (cold water in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean) invariably result in a tropical-global lower troposphere temperature cooling as measured by UAH. Proposition: Lower atmospheric humidity in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean is the key to this quick, global infusion of heat due to evaporation during El Ninos. The quick loss of atmospheric heat associated with water vapor are associated (somehow) with the onset of La Nina conditions (suggestions wanted). Data Observations: Water vapor maps are hard to find. Are global precipitation maps a substitute? Note the precipitation difference between the cental-eastern Pacific versus the western Pacific. The west is saturated. The east is dry. Flood a dry interface with warm eastward surfacing El Nino waters and "vuela". Given the strength/height of the tropical Hadley cells in comparison to the polar cells, within 2 or 3 months, this infusion has moved around the globe. Cloud cover also yields a clue, but not as good as precipitation. The steap La Nina drop is not as easily explained. Let the bright minds on this site offer up some explainations. Precipitation also releases heat that was bound up with vapor, much of which is then on its outward journey to space. But why the rapid, dramatic drop? Is it as simple as "the dryer-cooler" air across the central-eastern Pacific under La Nina conditions quickly displacing the wetter-warmer air masses world-wide?   
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 13, 2021 22:22:46 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 13, 2021 23:53:10 GMT
Yes. Good primer on movements along the equator, but nothing on the connections to the rest of the globe. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 14, 2021 10:01:13 GMT
Yes. Good primer on movements along the equator, but nothing on the connections to the rest of the globe. Oz-centric! |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 14, 2021 13:56:58 GMT
Yes. Good primer on movements along the equator, but nothing on the connections to the rest of the globe. Oz-centric! What happens in OZ doesn't stay in OZ. Can we look at this chart and bet on what an aggregate ENSO and PDO will generally look like in 10 years? At a minimum, are the 1960s-70s back? Should we be looking at recorded weather events from the Dalton Minimum? Were the recent (and continuing) China patterns also generally present then? If our leaders are capable of prescient forecasting (odds betting and hedging), what would they do? Besides looking like a deer caught in the headlights. Or like Buttigeg, with a self-knowing smirk on his face. It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing (thank you Bob). Does anyone in DC read tea leaves anymore? They would note that La Nina years have not been good to China. Time to play hardball.  |
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Post by duwayne on Jul 14, 2021 19:47:49 GMT
Missouri, I have nothing to offer when it comes to 5 and 10 year predictions for the PDO and ENSO. I have made a prediction for the 30 year average for the PDO and MVENSO for 2007-2037, what I believe is the ocean current cycle warm leg. My expectation is that the PDO and MVENSO 30 year averages will be similar to the last warm leg, 1947-1977.
Here is a copy of my prediction from the old Global Warming Temperature Thread in 2016. The predictions were averages for 2007-2037. This was a progress report through 1Q 2016. As you can see my MVENSO and PDO predictions were not looking very good at that time.
Since then the 2 values have fallen back into line. MVENSO is now -0.3 as predicted and the PDO is -0.7 or 0.1 lower than predicted for 2007 through 2Q 2021.
Again, the predictions for both PDO and MVENSO are the average values from 1947-1977.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 14, 2021 21:37:31 GMT
The question may really boil down to whether the Western Warm Pool is losing steam. The 2015 El Nino was large coming off a small cycle 24. But so was the one following low cycle 20. The pre-cycle 25 Nino was small ... even smaller than the pre-cycle 21 Nino. Last year was a seemingly a large westward Indian Ocean pulse. And the WWP recharge in the ongoing Nina is not looking dramatic. PDO continues to back off. New weak cycle 25? Less warming of that ocean-crossing westward pulse? Might suggest a continued decline in the net heat in the equatorial system? Most cycles have had ENSO pulses off their backside. Will 25 be low here too? If residual SST is cooling, ENSO and PDO pulses will be cooler. Back to a dominance of Nina and negative PDO overall. And as goes ENSO, so goes global temp, if our UAH-ENSO relationship is valid. We have NO two-low-cycle comparables since the Dalton Minimum. And now we have not only coolish springs, but coolish summers too. Both hemispheres. Makes a wagering man think about the accumulation of odds. The times they are a-changin.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 15, 2021 1:57:44 GMT
As I have said before next month is a ski month in NZ for me and the prediction for the south of NZ given the La Nina was warm and dry. They are at Latitude 45 and that from Astro.
What is transpiring is a series of depressions with an origin in tropical pacific sliding down past Ratty on the east coast of Australia then run into NZ. This fits with the prediction. Historically this would be the death of the ski season but this year they are dropping snow rather than rain at the crucial 1500M level and the fields are looking good with more to come. We would normally pray for southern sourced storms and a couple of fronts have been through but not a normal pattern. I'm calling it a cold year based on the snow in tropical cyclones in the south. I live at latitude 36 so just winter a dryer than normal year.
Hope Ratty can read this today!
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 18, 2021 5:28:40 GMT
So here's a sight for sore eyes, specifically aiming this at Ratty and his key metric the SOI its gone hard to predicting a La Nina. Its really quite early. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ |
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Post by acidohm on Jul 18, 2021 7:07:33 GMT
So here's a sight for sore eyes, specifically aiming this at Ratty and his key metric the SOI its gone hard to predicting a La Nina. Its really quite early. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/Good spot Non. Trajectory really isn't letting up!!  |
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