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Post by missouriboy on Jun 16, 2023 22:17:49 GMT
Anthony Watts and others talk El Nino and climate madness in the embedded video.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 18, 2023 18:53:00 GMT
Four years into solar cycle 25 (end of May 2023), ENSO Regions 3.4 and 4 continue to track solar cycle 20 more closely than other solar cycles since 1950. Current Tropical Tidbits ocean SSTA chart shows anomalies trending downward in June, which would mirror SC20 if continued. The last years of SC20 were dominated by La Ninas. And several notorius Eastern North American winters. It doesn't get any easier Dr Mann. Surrender now.   |
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Post by ratty on Jun 19, 2023 0:15:56 GMT
The little boy seems a tad reluctant at this stage.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 19, 2023 0:57:27 GMT
The little boy seems a tad reluctant at this stage. Wiggles are very entertaining yes? |
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Post by ratty on Jun 19, 2023 6:31:33 GMT
The little boy seems a tad reluctant at this stage. Wiggles are very entertaining yes? Yes ....  |
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Post by neilhamp on Jun 19, 2023 6:42:14 GMT
Hi Moboy,
I am trying to follow all your charts and "wiggles".
Here in the UK our media is making a big deal out the forthcoming El Nino.
I note you think "And those praying for a huge Nino will be disappointed.
Keep us all posted.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 19, 2023 15:16:26 GMT
Here is the setup for comparison of ENSO SC25 going forward. Starting in the 41st month of SC24 (May, 2012) and SC25 (May, 2023). GODAS - Note the differences in the Western Warm Pool and the Indian Ocean. You'll remember from previous GODAS post that the West Pacific concentrations of heat seem to be showing a shift to the SW Pacific. This continues into SC25. Seemingly less warmth in Warm Pool north of the equator to feed the gravity waves moving eastward. The Indian Ocean is also cooler.
Now look at the 3-year progression (May, 2013; May 2014 & May 2015) that led to the huge El Nino in 2015 in GODAS maps 3, 4 and 5. Now look again at GODAS map 2 for May, 2023. Where the hell is all that warm water going to come from to create a new super nino? I rest my forecast. Joe is right. There's only so much heat to go around.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pentad.shtml   |
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 19, 2023 16:01:19 GMT
Hi Moboy, I am trying to follow all your charts and "wiggles". Here in the UK our media is making a big deal out the forthcoming El Nino. I note you think "And those praying for a huge Nino will be disappointed. Keep us all posted. In 3 years time (or less), the dishonorable media should be eating that crow that they thought was the golden goose. They must not be allowed to decline the reservation. Of course, I could still be wrong.  I am becoming quite fond of some of the "boys" in NOAA. They are bidding their time and passing the ammunition. |
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Post by ratty on Jun 20, 2023 0:45:48 GMT
Hi Moboy, I am trying to follow all your charts and "wiggles". Here in the UK our media is making a big deal out the forthcoming El Nino. I note you think "And those praying for a huge Nino will be disappointed. Keep us all posted. In 3 years time (or less), the dishonorable media should be eating that crow that they thought was the golden goose. They must not be allowed to decline the reservation. Of course, I could still be wrong. I am becoming quite fond of some of the "boys" in NOAA. They are bidding their time and passing the ammunition. ... unlikely as that may be.  What are you seeing from some of the boys at NOAA? |
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 20, 2023 1:12:43 GMT
In 3 years time (or less), the dishonorable media should be eating that crow that they thought was the golden goose. They must not be allowed to decline the reservation. Of course, I could still be wrong. I am becoming quite fond of some of the "boys" in NOAA. They are bidding their time and passing the ammunition. ... unlikely as that may be. What are you seeing from some of the boys at NOAA? That could be more likely than not. A big volcanic hiccup or two. Some large geothermal activity. Unforeseen solar activity. Looking at past trends as prognostications of the future. Seat of the pants type of stuff that might go awry. Some of NOAA.s ocean work seems very professional. Canned measurements from various assortments of instrument arrays. I think there are a lot of good data guys out there. And not every section head is a rotten scheming bastard. There is still honor to be found in institutional scientists. They work, and wait. and bide their time. |
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Post by ratty on Jun 20, 2023 12:32:38 GMT
... unlikely as that may be. What are you seeing from some of the boys at NOAA? That could be more likely than not. A big volcanic hiccup or two. Some large geothermal activity. Unforeseen solar activity. Looking at past trends as prognostications of the future. Seat of the pants type of stuff that might go awry. Some of NOAA.s ocean work seems very professional. Canned measurements from various assortments of instrument arrays. I think there are a lot of good data guys out there. And not every section head is a rotten scheming bastard. There is still honor to be found in institutional scientists. They work, and wait. and bide their time. ... but - in most cases - they don't speak out until they have retired. If they do speak out, .....  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 20, 2023 13:18:59 GMT
An article from Joe. And as we know, the embedded political nests at HOAA often silence those nests that are doing good work. Joe points out other explanations for ocean temperature increases. 
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 21, 2023 0:01:10 GMT
That could be more likely than not. A big volcanic hiccup or two. Some large geothermal activity. Unforeseen solar activity. Looking at past trends as prognostications of the future. Seat of the pants type of stuff that might go awry. Some of NOAA.s ocean work seems very professional. Canned measurements from various assortments of instrument arrays. I think there are a lot of good data guys out there. And not every section head is a rotten scheming bastard. There is still honor to be found in institutional scientists. They work, and wait. and bide their time. ... but - in most cases - they don't speak out until they have retired. If they do speak out, ..... Yep. It's hard to go home and tell wifey that I got nonconformist and got sacked.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 21, 2023 1:20:50 GMT
An article from Joe. And as we know, the embedded political nests at HOAA often silence those nests that are doing good work. Joe points out other explanations for ocean temperature increases. Charts showing the relationship of ENSO/temperatures and global seismic activity.   |
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 21, 2023 13:26:09 GMT
still very skeptical.
correlation and causation?
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I am becoming quite fond of some of the "boys" in NOAA. They are bidding their time and passing the ammunition. 
