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Post by ratty on May 12, 2023 0:14:01 GMT
Re:: Mr. Rat's post. is there nothing these guys won't blame on humans? Are they so arrogant that they really believe humans control every input into the complex non-linear, chaotic climate system? Or is it as Mr. blust says, "confirmation bias." Inquiring minds want to know. Seek a research grant for " A study into how climate change is affecting brainwave activity in researchers." The words in bold will ensure the money flow .  |
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Post by douglavers on May 13, 2023 7:13:05 GMT
The SOI has now gone solidly negative.
However, I suspect that a climate flip has occurred, and this will not have the usual drying effect on Oz.
Somehow, somewhere, something fundamental may have changed.
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Post by nonentropic on May 13, 2023 19:03:03 GMT
Yes Doug down here in NZ we will see the last tropical flow from the north next week very likely as the La Nina continues to decays.
Regarding the "shift" or "flip" it does look that Australia is not warm and the NZ ski field took a solid dump of snow last week a bit early and gratifyingly deep. I believe that Australia has had a solid series of snow events in May.
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Post by ratty on May 14, 2023 1:17:43 GMT
Yes Doug down here in NZ we will see the last tropical flow from the north next week very likely as the La Nina continues to decays. Regarding the "shift" or "flip" it does look that Australia is not warm and the NZ ski field took a solid dump of snow last week a bit early and gratifyingly deep. I believe that Australia has had a solid series of snow events in May. 5th May 2023: Icy weekend: Snow blanketing Australian Alps offers ski season preview |
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Post by duwayne on May 16, 2023 16:32:36 GMT
The NOAA website says......
"The AMO is currently not updated due to the source dataset (Kaplan SST) not being updated. We have not decided what to do yet about this. We apologize for the inconvience."
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Post by Sigurdur on May 21, 2023 17:56:29 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on May 22, 2023 6:37:41 GMT
Big number on the SOI, as big as I have seen not long ago big numbers the other way, moving around a bit but the La Nina looks gone burger and the El Nino looks to be tracking in. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ |
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Post by ratty on May 22, 2023 7:02:49 GMT
Big number on the SOI, as big as I have seen not long ago big numbers the other way, moving around a bit but the La Nina looks gone burger and the El Nino looks to be tracking in. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/I watch those wiggles too ....  |
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Post by duwayne on May 22, 2023 17:51:10 GMT
Here’s the latest (May 19,2023) NOAA ENSO prediction using their so-called “state-of-the-art” model.
I wanted to get this on the record so we can look back at the end of 2023 and see how accurate their Dynamic model was.
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Post by missouriboy on May 24, 2023 3:20:52 GMT
Here’s the latest (May 19,2023) NOAA ENSO prediction using their so-called “state-of-the-art” model.
I wanted to get this on the record so we can look back at the end of 2023 and see how accurate their Dynamic model was.
I think I see their logic duwayne. It has to do with Solar Cycle 19, which we have always known to be "strange". It is the only one of the the most recent 7 cycles that did not have an opening phase El Nino. SC25 was similar in that it had a very small opening-phase El Nino. The chart below shows ENSO 3.4 SSTA monthly values for the duration of SCs 19-25 and the 9-month forecast ensemble mean values through Jan. 2024. Note that their extension for SC25 mirror SC19. That is a 70-year period by the way. And SC25 is the 3rd ending Hale Cycle beyond SC19. Circa 1950 was also a very negative IOD ... just like 2022. Someone's model is betting on a re-play. In this case, a directed model might bear fruit, but it is going to have to hurry. At least they are not blaming it on CO2.
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Post by nonentropic on May 24, 2023 6:47:48 GMT
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Post by ratty on May 24, 2023 11:56:38 GMT
It's a big'un, not sure what it means yet. |
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Post by duwayne on May 24, 2023 14:54:12 GMT
Missouriboy, with your newly found information are you changing your prediction from no El Nino to strong El Nino in 2023?
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Post by ratty on May 24, 2023 22:29:51 GMT
The numbers are SO BIG, I think there may be a problem with the algorithm. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 25, 2023 0:53:56 GMT
Missouriboy, with your newly found information are you changing your prediction from no El Nino to strong El Nino in 2023? I still think that the relative weakness of cycle 25 will overwhelm the upward movement of ENSO 3.4. It is already leveling off after a 1C upward movement. SC24 made the same run, and failed to impress. |
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