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Post by ratty on Jan 14, 2023 9:48:55 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 14, 2023 13:11:17 GMT
Many of the models are forecasting for ENSO neutral or even a weak El Nino this spring/summer. We will see.
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Post by flearider on Jan 14, 2023 16:39:59 GMT
what did astro say? sur he said it would stay .. we will see |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 14, 2023 17:22:00 GMT
Historically, for Nov to Jan, it has been lower than the SC21-SC23 high. March is generally the high SST month for Nino1+2.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2023 5:00:02 GMT
Those warm pulses eastward are still really just small blobs by mid-January. Enough to modify 1+2 but not yet to shift it in mass.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2023 17:56:02 GMT
It Ain't Over Till It's Over
January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2
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Post by ratty on Jan 22, 2023 1:17:14 GMT
It Ain't Over Till It's Over
January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2 Well done, MB! Good choice not to use the words "fat lady".  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 22, 2023 1:41:27 GMT
It Ain't Over Till It's Over
January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2 Well done, MB! Good choice not to use the words "fat lady". I still have scars. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 28, 2023 23:36:52 GMT
ENSO & UAH LT Tropics - Solar Cycle Panels SC24 &SC25 - First 8 Months.
UAH and ENSO regions continue downward, approaching the SC24 inflection point. SC24 got a significant bounce as the second peak kicked in and beyond. We will soon see how SC25 tracks. I predict that the post-peak ENSO bounce will not be as high as SC24. UAH tropical LT temperatures, which track ENSO will do likewise. If eastward-moving gravity waves get their energy from the Western Warm Pool, then these will, on average, be cooler. Watch region 4. If 4 cools in relation to SC24, then the WWP battery is discharging.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 9, 2023 16:29:55 GMT
300 Meter Average Ocean Temperature Anomaly: 1979-2023
GIF movie copied from source but I can't get it to pause. Ideas?
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Post by duwayne on Feb 10, 2023 15:55:41 GMT
300 Meter Average Ocean Temperature Anomaly: 1979-2023
GIF movie copied from source but I can't get it to pause. Ideas?
This may not meet your needs, but if you use Microsoft's "snipping tool" you can copy a single frame and do with it as you wish. |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 14, 2023 20:54:22 GMT
ENSO Region temperatures have been getting colder during summer over the last 13 Years westward from Peru to about 180 deg. Are the Tropical Warm Pool (still no absolute measure) and Region 4 getting cooler waters in these last two cycles? Less westward solar heating? Cooler inputs do seem apparent in 1+2. Likely both? Yet Region 4 got slightly warmer in the early summer since 2010. No apparent Nino looking to start just yet. The gravity wave seems stuck about mid-Pacific.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 17, 2023 20:56:58 GMT
COMMENTS/INPUT wanted on the following. Note that cooler surface water flow may have changed directions. Earlier, the colder blue plume was flowing into the the tropical Pacific almost totally from the southeast direction.
That flow now seems to have shut down and is being(?) replaced from along the northeastern Pacific. We saw something very similar at the exact same point in SC24. See map2. Is the cooling north Pacific now being re-cycled into the eastern tropical Pacific? Is this how the North Pacific cools? ... as the cooling western flank of the gyre keeps getting re-cycled? If so, we may not see much of an el-nino bounce in 2023?   Most Recent 90-day SSTA animation showing shift in cold surface water from the NE. coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/ |
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Post by acidohm on Feb 18, 2023 13:44:27 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 18, 2023 15:17:21 GMT
It's too bad that "global plumbing" doesn't pay the bills.  Those with their hands in the cash stream want your soul as well as your time. |
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Those with their hands in the cash stream want your soul as well as your time.