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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 26, 2023 22:07:25 GMT
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Post by ratty on Jul 28, 2023 10:36:17 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 28, 2023 19:53:45 GMT
Even if China experiences major economic problems consumption of stuff as is supplied by Australia and NZ may not fall all that far what will decline is China's domestic economic construction but we all need their products.
My pick is that supplied commodities will fall in price but the Indias Indonesia etc will still grow to replace their decline in volume.
prices of the Australian stuff is close to record as are NZ's exports 30% lower prices will hurt but actually still above long run average.
Oil prices will be interesting the lack of investment now for about 10 years very especially in the West has handed power to the BRIC+/ OPEC+ Saudi looks to be enjoying that, $100/bbl looks to be the goal and possible. China using 1 or 2mmbbl/d less will be absorbed, it is oil which underpins prices of a lot of stuff.
US and Canada will be fine.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 10, 2023 22:15:55 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 12, 2023 11:57:23 GMT
Watching the communists in China trying to fix the ailing economy is like watching the Dalai Lama try to butcher a hog. It's not going to end well...
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Post by duwayne on Aug 12, 2023 14:46:28 GMT
To me the Chinese seem to be taking a more “hands off” approach with their economy than the US has done.
Yellen’s extended zero interest rates along with Biden’s stimulus spending led to our inflation and then to the current high interest rates which has caused wages to fall in real terms. And our debt and debt payments continue to skyrocket.
China’s GDP growth over the last year as reported in the most recent quarter was 6% with little inflation.
Chinese individual savings rates have climbed. That’s good for savers and future spending, but the reduced spending pushes down on GDP growth in the near term. Their growth from quarter to quarter has slowed to about a 3% annualized rate.
China has been slow to stimulate. Should they increase their interference in the free market a la Yellen and Biden?
Biden recently announced market restrictions in trade with China. China’s response was a request to quit interfering with free trade.
Is China’s slowness to interfere in the economy a bad idea?
(They aren't slow to interfere with reporting of news.)
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 12, 2023 18:48:39 GMT
If they have deflation and I include asset bubble inflation is not a risk, then I think it is valid reduce the nominal cost borrowing that is interest rates.
It was the gold standard that stopped the US from expanding money supply in the Great Depression so were unable to respond to a collapse in the velocity of money. You know what they say, "inflation is nasty but wait till meet its ugly sister deflation".
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Post by walnut on Aug 12, 2023 21:44:50 GMT
To me the Chinese seem to be taking a more “hands off” approach with their economy than the US has done.
Yellen’s extended zero interest rates along with Biden’s stimulus spending led to our inflation and then to the current high interest rates which has caused wages to fall in real terms. And our debt and debt payments continue to skyrocket.
China’s GDP growth over the last year as reported in the most recent quarter was 6% with little inflation.
Chinese individual savings rates have climbed. That’s good for savers and future spending, but the reduced spending pushes down on GDP growth in the near term. Their growth from quarter to quarter has slowed to about a 3% annualized rate.
China has been slow to stimulate. Should they increase their interference in the free market a la Yellen and Biden?
Biden recently announced market restrictions in trade with China. China’s response was a request to quit interfering with free trade.
Is China’s slowness to interfere in the economy a bad idea?
(They aren't slow to interfere with reporting of news.)
In China's case with an aging and apparently shrinking population, this is ominously deflationary Macro economic theory is that a large portion of the savings will later be reinvested in capital plant and equipment for future growth, which is really just thrifty common sense. But central banks seem terrified to follow that old doctrine, afraid to take their foot off the gas for current spending. And in China's strange case, there may not be anyone around to buy the future increased production. 65+ year olds are lousy consumers. |
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Post by duwayne on Aug 13, 2023 15:01:37 GMT
Here’s a quote from a CNN article after China cut its interest rate a little over a month ago.
“China’s central bank has cut its main benchmark lending rates for the first time in 10 months, in its latest effort to bolster growth as the world’s second largest economy falters.
The rate cuts come as Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, slash their forecasts for China’s economy. Goldman said on Sunday that the recovery sparked by the country’s post-Covid reopening appeared to have “fizzled out” in the second quarter as it downgraded its forecast for growth this year to 5.4% from 6%.
The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%.”
I post this to reemphasize that the Chinese government moves with respect to the economy tend to be very restrained compared to the US approach. Our Fed doesn’t move interest rates by just 0.1%. A quarter to a half percent is the norm.
I don't think China has made a single rate change move of 0.25% or more in the last 20 years. They don't play with dynamite like Yellen who thinks it's her job to control the economy while she doesn't have a clue.
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Post by Sigurdur on Aug 13, 2023 18:00:03 GMT
Here’s a quote from a CNN article after China cut its interest rate a little over a month ago.
“China’s central bank has cut its main benchmark lending rates for the first time in 10 months, in its latest effort to bolster growth as the world’s second largest economy falters.
The rate cuts come as Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, slash their forecasts for China’s economy. Goldman said on Sunday that the recovery sparked by the country’s post-Covid reopening appeared to have “fizzled out” in the second quarter as it downgraded its forecast for growth this year to 5.4% from 6%.
The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%.”
I post this to reemphasize that the Chinese government moves with respect to the economy tend to be very restrained compared to the US approach. Our Fed doesn’t move interest rates by just 0.1%. A quarter to a half percent is the norm.
I don't think China has made a single rate change move of 0.25% or more in the last 20 years. They don't play with dynamite like Yellen who thinks it's her job to control the economy while she doesn't have a clue.
Politicians are trying to make the US a centrally controlled economy. |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 14, 2023 20:08:07 GMT
Here’s a quote from a CNN article after China cut its interest rate a little over a month ago.
“China’s central bank has cut its main benchmark lending rates for the first time in 10 months, in its latest effort to bolster growth as the world’s second largest economy falters.
The rate cuts come as Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, slash their forecasts for China’s economy. Goldman said on Sunday that the recovery sparked by the country’s post-Covid reopening appeared to have “fizzled out” in the second quarter as it downgraded its forecast for growth this year to 5.4% from 6%.
The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%.”
I post this to reemphasize that the Chinese government moves with respect to the economy tend to be very restrained compared to the US approach. Our Fed doesn’t move interest rates by just 0.1%. A quarter to a half percent is the norm.
I don't think China has made a single rate change move of 0.25% or more in the last 20 years. They don't play with dynamite like Yellen who thinks it's her job to control the economy while she doesn't have a clue.
Politicians are trying to make the US a centrally controlled economy. They are. But when compared to China or Europe we are still the best in class. Even if the class is not what it once was. |
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 18, 2023 13:24:48 GMT
All of Xi's horses and all of Xi's men ...
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 20, 2023 20:31:05 GMT
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Post by ratty on Aug 20, 2023 23:41:27 GMT
I've posted that elsewhere as "The first Chinese chequerdomino falling?"  |
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Post by walnut on Aug 21, 2023 0:07:08 GMT
I remember the last time this happened was around 2002 or so. I fairly thought that the US market would be mostly immune to China's debt problems, but that wasn't entirely true. We had a stock market downturn, it took the air out of the sails of US stocks. Of course it came back in due time. But I may sell stocks in the morning. Code, are you there?
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