|
|
Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 19, 2023 15:21:49 GMT
Glennkoks has posted often on these boards about the implications for the US of a weak Chinese economy. As noted in recent articles in the FT (https://www.ft.com/chinese-economy.) it looks like Mr. Glenn's thoughts were prescient. I think a weakening Chinese economy could spark a conflagration in a world already filled with tinder. Anyone have thoughts?
|
|
|
|
Post by flearider on Jul 19, 2023 19:11:05 GMT
Glennkoks has posted often on these boards about the implications for the US of a weak Chinese economy. As noted in recent articles in the FT (https://www.ft.com/chinese-economy.) it looks like Mr. Glenn's thoughts were prescient. I think a weakening Chinese economy could spark a conflagration in a world already filled with tinder. Anyone have thoughts? it's fine india will take over where they left off ... there building stuff as we speak .. just in time .. as it was or planned if you wear the hat .. |
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Jul 20, 2023 6:09:12 GMT
Glennkoks has posted often on these boards about the implications for the US of a weak Chinese economy. As noted in recent articles in the FT (https://www.ft.com/chinese-economy.) it looks like Mr. Glenn's thoughts were prescient. I think a weakening Chinese economy could spark a conflagration in a world already filled with tinder. Anyone have thoughts? Paywalled. Precis? |
|
|
|
Post by Sigurdur on Jul 20, 2023 12:23:27 GMT
I visited with a Chinese person this week. Was an interesting discussion.
He went to school in Iowa as a foreign student. Works at CIBC in Canada.
China has its faults, he talked about the social system in US and Canada. In China, people aren't paid to not work. He said the system in US and Canada provided him the opportunity TO work.
I found the mindset troubling and interesting.
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jul 20, 2023 12:38:38 GMT
I visited with a Chinese person this week. Was an interesting discussion. He went to school in Iowa as a foreign student. Works at CIBC in Canada. China has its faults, he talked about the social system in US and Canada. In China, people aren't paid to not work. He said the system in US and Canada provided him the opportunity TO work. I found the mindset troubling and interesting. Agreed. When transplanted to North America in family groups, the Chinese have traditionally done well. The paid for and kept, worthless (economically speaking) urban incompetents are going to fail. They have no talents on which to base success. Foraging and raiding war parties only go so far ... and then they are outclassed and outsupplied. What would a talent-less urban raiding party do in North Dakota? |
|
|
|
Post by Sigurdur on Jul 20, 2023 12:53:35 GMT
I visited with a Chinese person this week. Was an interesting discussion. He went to school in Iowa as a foreign student. Works at CIBC in Canada. China has its faults, he talked about the social system in US and Canada. In China, people aren't paid to not work. He said the system in US and Canada provided him the opportunity TO work. I found the mindset troubling and interesting. Agreed. When transplanted to North America in family groups, the Chinese have traditionally done well. The paid for and kept, worthless (economically speaking) urban incompetents are going to fail. They have no talents on which to base success. Foraging and raiding war parties only go so far ... and then they are outclassed and outsupplied. What would a talent-less urban raiding party do in North Dakota? They would not fare well. |
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Jul 20, 2023 17:36:27 GMT
China's GDP for the most recent quarter slowed to 0.8% quarter to quarter growth or an annualized rate of 3.2% growth. So far they have not chosen to undertake a stimulus program, that is, take on debt and spend as Yellen and others around the world did which led to significant inflation. Does that mean China's economy is inferior? Is their goal of 5% growth for this year unrealistic. Are they a failing country? I'm just asking questions for the experts here.
|
|
|
|
Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 20, 2023 22:11:12 GMT
Glennkoks has posted often on these boards about the implications for the US of a weak Chinese economy. As noted in recent articles in the FT (https://www.ft.com/chinese-economy.) it looks like Mr. Glenn's thoughts were prescient. I think a weakening Chinese economy could spark a conflagration in a world already filled with tinder. Anyone have thoughts? Paywalled. Precis? Sorry, Mr. Rat. A series of FT articles discussing the latest Chinese economic indicators, including missed growth targets, slow down of the growth of the economy, and the very real possibility of a real estate bubble like none before because of the overbuilding of commercial and residential structures. |
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Jul 20, 2023 23:03:07 GMT
Sorry, Mr. Rat. A series of FT articles discussing the latest Chinese economic indicators, including missed growth targets, slow down of the growth of the economy, and the very real possibility of a real estate bubble like none before because of the overbuilding of commercial and residential structures. Thanks Fido. This is another site I can't get to ...  China Mulls Mortgage Easing to Spur Homebuying in Big CitiesShades of 'subprime'? |
|
|
|
Post by nemesis on Jul 21, 2023 11:29:53 GMT
Hi Ratty If you copy link into: archive.ph/ you may find full archived pay walled articles and often very shortly after publication. It works for me here in UK. |
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Jul 21, 2023 20:53:09 GMT
I subscribe and religiously watch China Update on Youtube. Tony is a Kiwi, educated in China speaks fluent Chinese and or Mandarin and is married to a Chinese National. His short videos are based on economic news/developments in China and he is a throwback to old school journalism. Kind of dry, sometimes almost boring but very informative.
|
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Jul 22, 2023 18:30:57 GMT
I subscribe and religiously watch China Update on Youtube. Tony is a Kiwi, educated in China speaks fluent Chinese and or Mandarin and is married to a Chinese National. His short videos are based on economic news/developments in China and he is a throwback to old school journalism. Kind of dry, sometimes almost boring but very informative. Glennkoks, is there anything in this daily report which indicates to you that China’s economic policies are not fiscally sound? Is the Biden approach better? |
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Jul 22, 2023 19:40:10 GMT
I had a week in Singapore and Malaysia mostly business with one person who has factories in China, Taiwan Malaysia and Singapore. his story about China is that the wages and productivity growth are forcing factories to go to lower cost centers in Vietnam Malaysia etc. Demographics etc. support this.
I think the biggest impact will be that much inflation in the West has been absorbed by falling cost from products built in China over the last 25 years that could be stopping consequently the inflation we have now, could struggle to fall below say 4% to the wished for 2%.
Interest rates would remain higher semi permanently if that were to happen.
The cost of a mortgage going from say 3% to 5% increases the cost of housing where many are into borrowing of $400k is $8k/Yr extra a family will notice that. Also downward pressure on house prices.
|
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Jul 23, 2023 18:56:55 GMT
I subscribe and religiously watch China Update on Youtube. Tony is a Kiwi, educated in China speaks fluent Chinese and or Mandarin and is married to a Chinese National. His short videos are based on economic news/developments in China and he is a throwback to old school journalism. Kind of dry, sometimes almost boring but very informative. Glennkoks, is there anything in this daily report which indicates to you that China’s economic policies are not fiscally sound? Is the Biden approach better? Duwayne, They key word in "free market economy" is free. There is nothing free about the Chinese system. In our economic system the law of supply and demand, rather than a central government, regulates production, labor, and the marketplace. In China the government is everything. While I do not agree with the Biden's administration economic policies our economic system is still head and shoulders above what they have in China. And it's starting to show. Official Chinese data indicates a youth unemployment rate of 21% for June. In reality it is estimated to be closer to 50%. They have big demographic problems with an aging population, and almost nothing that comes from the Communist government there can be trusted. Long and short of it you cannot have a free market economy without one key ingredient. Freedom. And that starts with the private ownership of land. |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Jul 23, 2023 19:10:38 GMT
Without knowing which fundamental assumptions we can accept as certain fact, there is no way to even guesstimate China's future or their effect on the West. Not even short term.
I was happy that we began pivoting away from reliance on China during Trump's term, and if the pivot could continue gradually, I don't think that a big China market/economic failure would necessarily have to be disastrous for us. In the event that we cut ties too quickly, Chinese spreadsheets at corporations and banks will suddenly begin flashing red. They would probably experience a cascading default collapse. That would tank our stock market. But we would get through it eventually.
My wife has a friend in the auto business who travels to China frequently. He said that he seldom sees young people, only old people on the streets. Take that FWIW.
|
|
