steve
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 77
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Post by steve on Jun 22, 2022 17:24:32 GMT
I would like to throw this out for board.
What are some historical events that have not happened for a while? Things like pandemic, war in Europe, big weather/geological events. I am not asking for predictions. Am wondering if the last 50ish years have been abnormally calm.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 22, 2022 17:57:07 GMT
I would like to throw this out for board. What are some historical events that have not happened for a while? Things like pandemic, war in Europe, big weather/geological events. I am not asking for predictions. Am wondering if the last 50ish years have been abnormally calm.
I think that you are right. What stands out to me is what appears to be greater variance in certain weather and geologic events. The average may not change much if extremes at both ends get larger. |
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 22, 2022 21:06:08 GMT
I think the last 50 years have been almost boring compared to what other generations had to endure. Imagine if you were born in 1900. The worst natural disaster in our nations history happened in your very first year in Galveston, TX. Then the Titanic sank when you were twelve years old. Sometime around your 14th birthday World War one broke out in Europe. No sooner does your dad come home from the battlefields of Europe and you are fighting the Spanish Flu pandemic. By the time you turn twenty your God given right to enjoy an alcoholic beverage was unjustly taken from you.
You make a fortune in the stock market in the roaring twenties only to see it all evaporate on Black Tuesday in October of 1929. You almost starve to death during The Great Depression and Dust Bowl only to see another World War break out to start your 4th decade on this earth. The fifth and sixth decades of your life are pretty decent and then the icing on the cake is you have to endure the Carter Administration in the late 1970's.
Yes the last 50 years have been a piece of cake compared to what previous generations had to endure.
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Post by birder on Jun 22, 2022 21:18:51 GMT
I think I was very lucky to have been born in 1946 and managed to avoid any wars so far, being around when we have had a strong sun has helped a lot, they do say that a weak sun and therefore more cosmic rays cause all sorts of problems (wars,diseases and famines) so not looking good for the future.
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Post by blustnmtn on Jun 22, 2022 22:43:42 GMT
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Post by code on Jun 23, 2022 17:19:09 GMT
I would like to throw this out for board. What are some historical events that have not happened for a while? Things like pandemic, war in Europe, big weather/geological events. I am not asking for predictions. Am wondering if the last 50ish years have been abnormally calm. I was going to offer up a prediction but oK. |
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Post by code on Jun 23, 2022 17:23:12 GMT
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Post by code on Jun 23, 2022 17:36:18 GMT
A major Cascadia Subduction Zone will never happen...
Currently, scientists are predicting that there is about a 37 percent chance that a megathrust earthquake of 7.1+ magnitude in this fault zone will occur in the next 50 years.
According to USGS there is a 70% chance that one or more quakes of a magnitude 6.7 or larger will occur (in Cali) before the year 2030.
Nah, never happen.
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Post by ratty on Jun 24, 2022 4:52:57 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 24, 2022 7:24:15 GMT
OK Walnut. Where are the Okies going to go this time around? Can't afford gasoline, and California is full of idiots.
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Post by Sigurdur on Aug 29, 2022 11:34:27 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 29, 2022 12:46:09 GMT
Thanks for sharing that. Everything I have read said that the water vapor in the air stratosphere would cause slight warming not cooling. I figured the AGW crowd was a little quick in claiming warming. When you google it dozens of stories come out and say Tonga-Hunga would not cause much cooling because of the water in the stratosphere, this article is basically saying they have observed significant cooling. |
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Post by Sigurdur on Aug 29, 2022 17:19:49 GMT
Yep.
There is a LOT that "scientists" don't understand.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 29, 2022 20:34:24 GMT
Ok, I have had some rare time off so sitting around the computer I decided to do some searching on the stratospheric cooling event in the article provided by Sigurdur. Nothing, not one mention of it anywhere else on the internet. Crickets...
Hundreds of articles on how Tonga-Hunga would not cause cooling due to the amount of water blown into the stratosphere. And here we are 9 months later and we have stratospheric cooling clearly caused by the volcano. I am not sure of the physics of water vapor in the stratosphere but it stands to reason it would cause warming. But that is not what we are observing. Maybe the water vapor's effect is actually cooling? Maybe water vapor in the stratosphere has a negligible effect and the SO2 is causing the cooling. It will be interesting to see how this effects our NH winter if at all.
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Post by Sigurdur on Aug 29, 2022 22:32:01 GMT
Ok, I have had some rare time off so sitting around the computer I decided to do some searching on the stratospheric cooling event in the article provided by Sigurdur. Nothing, not one mention of it anywhere else on the internet. Crickets... Hundreds of articles on how Tonga-Hunga would not cause cooling due to the amount of water blown into the stratosphere. And here we are 9 months later and we have stratospheric cooling clearly caused by the volcano. I am not sure of the physics of water vapor in the stratosphere but it stands to reason it would cause warming. But that is not what we are observing. Maybe the water vapor's effect is actually cooling? Maybe water vapor in the stratosphere has a negligible effect and the SO2 is causing the cooling. It will be interesting to see how this effects our NH winter if at all. H2O in the strat causes cooling because of the increased radiative effect. CO2 is a very narrow band, H2O vapor has a very wide band. |
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