WORLD WAR Z

[gridley]

Oct 20, 2024 23:11:24 GMT Sigurdur said:

www.zerohedge.com/economics/danger-dollar-isnt-euro-or-yuan

Russia GDP is now estimated at +3.8 percent, topping the US, despite sanctions. What’s going on?

They don't have Bidenomics.

[glennkoks]

Oct 20, 2024 23:11:24 GMT Sigurdur said:

www.zerohedge.com/economics/danger-dollar-isnt-euro-or-yuan

Russia GDP is now estimated at +3.8 percent, topping the US, despite sanctions. What’s going on?

The quickest way to turn an economy around is converting to a wartime economy.  Hitler did it in the 1930's and we did it in the 1940's.  It's a well documented short term boost but it is really just Keynesian deficit spending on steroids.

[Sigurdur]

Oct 21, 2024 18:58:30 GMT glennkoks said:

Oct 20, 2024 23:11:24 GMT Sigurdur said:

www.zerohedge.com/economics/danger-dollar-isnt-euro-or-yuan

Russia GDP is now estimated at +3.8 percent, topping the US, despite sanctions. What’s going on?

The quickest way to turn an economy around is converting to a wartime economy.  Hitler did it in the 1930's and we did it in the 1940's.  It's a well documented short term boost but it is really just Keynesian deficit spending on steroids.

It is, however, Russia has the money to do it.  Which is much different than the US.

Over the past 20 years, we have really committed fiscal insanity in the USA.  www.cbo.gov/publication/59711

[glennkoks]

Oct 22, 2024 1:56:43 GMT Sigurdur said:

Oct 21, 2024 18:58:30 GMT glennkoks said:

The quickest way to turn an economy around is converting to a wartime economy.  Hitler did it in the 1930's and we did it in the 1940's.  It's a well documented short term boost but it is really just Keynesian deficit spending on steroids.

It is, however, Russia has the money to do it.  Which is much different than the US.

Over the past 20 years, we have really committed fiscal insanity in the USA.  www.cbo.gov/publication/59711

Putin stock piled a bunch of gold before he invaded Ukraine and Russia is one of the biggest producers of the precious metal on the planet.  So they have that going for them.  But losing the biggest market for their oil and gas is going to hurt them and it won't be easy to find a replacement for that.  One of the biggest problems with converting to a wartime economy is inflation.  Currently at 9.1% in Russia (using their own numbers).  That is going to hurt.  Wars are not good for the economy and eventually the hens will come home to roost.

North Korean troops will likely be the straw that breaks Ukraines back and Europe is going to have to make a decision on escalating the war with troops of their own or letting Putin take Kiev.

Wild card in all of this is if Trump wins the election here he will likely push for a deal that cedes territory for peace.  I don't think Ukraine will be in a position to turn down this settlement and the nation will be carved up.

That is when the Russian economy will really hit skid row as they convert from a wartime economy to a peacetime one.  The markets in Europe are gone for the remainder of Putin's life and China is in too poor of an economic position to pick up the slack.

[justme]

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/imf-sees-growth-shift-toward-brics-away-from-g7-in-new-outlook

IMF predicting BRICS will contribute to 41 percent of the global economic growth over the next 5 years. By contrast, the G7 is predicted to contribute 18 percent.

IMF now has Russia as the 4th largest economy. They are now ahead of both Japan and Germany.

[justme]

"Ukraine cannot defeat Russia – the best the west can do is help Kyiv plan for a secure post-war future"

A friend of mine, usually an intensely optimistic pro-Ukraine analyst, returned from Ukraine last week and told me: “It’s like the German Army in January 1945.” The Ukrainians are being driven back on all fronts – including in the Kursk province of Russia, which they had opened with much hope and fanfare in August. More importantly, they are running out of soldiers.

For most of 2024, Ukraine has been losing ground. This week, the town of Selidove in the western Donetsk region is being surrounded and, like Vuhledar earlier this month, is likely to fall in the next week or so – the only variable being how many Ukrainians will be lost in the process. Over the winter, the terrible prospect of a major battle to hold the strategically significant industrial town of Pokrovsk beckons.

theconversation.com/ukraine-cannot-defeat-russia-the-best-the-west-can-do-is-help-kyiv-plan-for-a-secure-post-war-future-242010


Ukrainian Telegram:

Our source in the General Staff reported that Syrsky has completely lost control over the situation in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhovsk areas, field commanders are no longer following orders and standing to the end, the military at the first sign of danger of being surrounded are leaving their positions without orders. The Kursk operation played a bad role for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, commanders consider it a betrayal, since the best reserves and equipment were sent to unprepared lines, where they are easily destroyed by the enemy.

"Freedom of speech, which we deserve, if you publish photos or videos of Ukrainians being beaten by military commissars, then be prepared for a criminal case for disrupting mobilization!
19 Telegram channel admins who tried to disrupt mobilization and published Ukrainian Armed Forces locations have been detained, — SBU.

It turns out that the TCC is a location of the Ukrainian Armed Forces deep in the rear of Ukraine!"

"Losses in the Kursk region are approaching 30 thousand, the figures are twice as high as during the counteroffensive of 2023, and most of them are not territorial defense, but experienced and seasoned units. They are holding on there exclusively thanks to the infusion of new reserves and equipment, supplies are very difficult. At the same time, it is already clear that the territory in the Kursk region will not become an argument for negotiations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are simply grinding there.

As a result, the complete failure of Zelensky's "Kursk adventure" is obvious - in the border areas in two months, more than 22 thousand Ukrainian soldiers and more than a thousand thousand units of military equipment have been destroyed. Under the blows of Russian troops, the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating to Sudzha or to the territory of the Sumy region. Individual units of the Ukrainian army are quickly destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces in "cauldrons".

At the same time, the Ukrainian General Staff, on orders from Bankova, who is ready to do anything for the sake of a PR effect, continues to cynically burn reserves, that is, transfer brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the Kursk region from the Kharkov and Zaporizhzhya directions. But, gradually, the Ukrainian authorities are coming to understand what a catastrophic mistake they have made. After all, in addition to the fact that the Russian Armed Forces continue to actively advance in the east of Ukraine, after the "Kursk adventure" "Ramstein" and Bankova's much-desired case with Zelensky's peace plan were covered. That is, the President's Office will still have to wind down the "Kursk adventure", but such a belated step leads to the fact that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces leave Russian territory, then in the current situation there is a high risk of losing the Sumy region. In the meantime, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to lose huge numbers of people and equipment on both the Kursk and Donbass fronts."

[duwayne]

Sept 22, 2022 18:39:31 GMT duwayne said:

If I were Zelensky and I thought the proposed Russian-sponsored referendum for the Russian-controlled area of Ukraine was going to proceed, I might consider making an offer to the citizens of the area if they voted against the referendum.

First, I would offer to change some things which are particularly annoying to the Russian-speaking people in the area.

Secondly, I would offer to leave this area out of any potential agreement with NATO. While the area would remain part of Ukraine, NATO would not be responsible for its protection and it would be neutral with respect to NATO-Russia dealings.

It's looking like Trump could possibly be elected president in 10 days and he has claimed he can work with Putin to settle the Ukraine conflict.  Two years ago in September 2022 I proposed (see above) that Zelesky should agree to making Eastern Ukraine a neutral area not subject to inclusion in a NATO protection agreement.  Anyone have any thoughts on whether a Trump-Putin agreement is possible in the near term and, if so, what would it look like? 

[justme]

1.5 year ago, Zelesnky and Ukrainian government officials claimed China's peace plan was capitulation, and the only solution was Ukraine's own 10 point peace plan.

Now Ukrainian government officials are considering China's peace plan.



The reality is Ukraine has been crushed. They will need to accept whatever terms Russia imposes on them. The 4 annexed oblasts + Crimea will be part of Russia. Ukraine will never join NATO, will be neutral, and have weapons limits for their military. Past the 4 oblasts, there may be a demilitarized zone on the Ukrainian side.

Here is what alleged Chinese peace plan would look like (from 1.5 year ago):

[Sigurdur]

[glennkoks]

Oct 27, 2024 16:11:41 GMT justme said:

1.5 year ago, Zelesnky and Ukrainian government officials claimed China's peace plan was capitulation, and the only solution was Ukraine's own 10 point peace plan.

Now Ukrainian government officials are considering China's peace plan.



The reality is Ukraine has been crushed. They will need to accept whatever terms Russia imposes on them. The 4 annexed oblasts + Crimea will be part of Russia. Ukraine will never join NATO, will be neutral, and have weapons limits for their military. Past the 4 oblasts, there may be a demilitarized zone on the Ukrainian side.

Here is what alleged Chinese peace plan would look like (from 1.5 year ago):

If things are going so well in Ukraine for the diminutive little Russian Leprechaun then why does he need help from North Korea?

[ratty]

Oct 30, 2024 0:11:19 GMT glennkoks said:

[ Snip ]

If things are going so well in Ukraine for the diminutive little Russian Leprechaun then why does he need help from North Korea?

You can't ask that!

[Sigurdur]