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Post by duwayne on Apr 21, 2024 14:42:03 GMT
A couple of comments.....
The youtuber talks about how bad it will be for Russia when they return to peacetime operations because the economy will have to rebuild itself from military-industrial to a peace-time economy like the US did after WWII. Actually, I thought the US did quite well in the post war period, leaving the Great Depression forever behind.
Also, he doesn't mention debt. In 2022 the US central government debt was 121% of GDP while Russia's debt was 20% of GDP. It's probably up some from that level now. But there would seem to be some room for Russia to spend on rebuilding and stimulating their economy after the conflict is over before they go bankrupt. And their debt load is surely nothing like what faced the US at the end of WWII.
There has been some problem with Russia repaying their foreign debt recently, but as I recall that was due to the US and others blocking Russian access to dollars to repay the debt rather than an unwillingness or inability to pay the interest due.
I'm not in any way an expert on Russia, but I'm always leery of policies based on wishful thinking.
The US did well post WWII mainly because they were the only economy left standing. In addition the economic policy established at Bretton Woods in 1944 help set up the USD as the worlds reserve currency which is an incredible advantage. Russia will have none of these benefits and still be facing headwinds against economic sanctions. Is Russia's very low debt a factor? How does it compare to the European countries after WWII?
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steve
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 70
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2024 16:11:02 GMT
Russia also has a lot of natural resources that will always be in demand. Multi-nationals will go back for these resources when the fighting is over and the sanctions are lifted.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 21, 2024 20:24:32 GMT
Russia also has a lot of natural resources that will always be in demand. Multi-nationals will go back for these resources when the fighting is over and the sanctions are lifted. Absolutely. Key words are "after the sanctions are lifted". Under what scenario do you see sanctions being lifted? I certainly can't see them going anywhere with a Ukrainian surrender and a Russian victory. A win by Putin is only going to lead to tighter and tighter sanctions. Replacing western markets with emerging ones will be difficult and take years. Especially for natural gas as pipelines to China will take years and years.
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Post by gridley on Apr 22, 2024 11:30:50 GMT
Russia also has a lot of natural resources that will always be in demand. Multi-nationals will go back for these resources when the fighting is over and the sanctions are lifted. Not to mention cheaper labor than the US.
Prior to the conflict Boeing had engineering offices in both Russia and the Ukraine. They did lousy work, but they did it cheap.
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steve
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 70
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Post by steve on Apr 23, 2024 2:58:14 GMT
Russia also has a lot of natural resources that will always be in demand. Multi-nationals will go back for these resources when the fighting is over and the sanctions are lifted. Absolutely. Key words are "after the sanctions are lifted". Under what scenario do you see sanctions being lifted? I certainly can't see them going anywhere with a Ukrainian surrender and a Russian victory. A win by Putin is only going to lead to tighter and tighter sanctions. Replacing western markets with emerging ones will be difficult and take years. Especially for natural gas as pipelines to China will take years and years. I think it will take years for sanctions to be lifted. It will be a gradual process. Probably start with something they have that is in short or very short supply in the west and is relatively easy to produce. Lobbying by multi-nationals will also be involved due to potential profits. I will admit to being impressed by the rapid withdrawal of the multi-nationals when Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 23, 2024 12:08:55 GMT
My daily dose of propaganda to counter someones else's daily doses of propaganda!
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Post by acidohm on Apr 24, 2024 17:51:33 GMT
Booster shot for Ukraine 👍🏻👍🏻
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 24, 2024 20:55:21 GMT
One of his little helpers told him that he really needed to get in gear.
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Post by justme on Apr 25, 2024 11:19:36 GMT
I remember when Russia was out of every weapon and was unable to manufacture anything. They were fighting with washing machines and shovels. Their GDP was too small to produce anything. There weapons are not accurate, and did not work. Remember when Russia ran out of troops? They were poorly trained, incompetent, and abandoning positons. Their losses were in the millions.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 25, 2024 11:58:42 GMT
I remember when Russia was out of every weapon and was unable to manufacture anything. They were fighting with washing machines and shovels. Their GDP was too small to produce anything. There weapons are not accurate, and did not work. Remember when Russia ran out of troops? They were poorly trained, incompetent, and abandoning positons. Their losses were in the millions. If the statement that you provided is true and "Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine" it leaves one really big question that needs to be answered by the Europeans. Why? Could it be Putin does not plan on stopping with Ukraine? If I lived in any of the former European nations that suffered under the yolk of the USSR I would take the fight to the diminutive evil Russian Leprechaun in Ukraine before it comes to my doorstep...
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Post by justme on Apr 25, 2024 15:37:09 GMT
I remember when Russia was out of every weapon and was unable to manufacture anything. They were fighting with washing machines and shovels. Their GDP was too small to produce anything. There weapons are not accurate, and did not work. Remember when Russia ran out of troops? They were poorly trained, incompetent, and abandoning positons. Their losses were in the millions. If the statement that you provided is true and "Russia is already producing more arms and military equipment than it needs for its war against Ukraine" it leaves one really big question that needs to be answered by the Europeans. Why? Could it be Putin does not plan on stopping with Ukraine? If I lived in any of the former European nations that suffered under the yolk of the USSR I would take the fight to the diminutive evil Russian Leprechaun in Ukraine before it comes to my doorstep... Why has the United States and Europe not switched to a war footing? They have been making statements about Russia attacking Ukraine for the sole reason of being an imperialist country. There is the constant claim Russia wants to attack NATO countries. It would be quite counterintuitive to constantly make these statements and not switch to a war footing, when the other side has an oversupply of everything, and you have a shortage of military items. The west has been clear that their goal is the strategic defeat of Russia. They keep sending weapons and have even mentioned their own troops on the ground. Russia has been clear about Ukraine since the 90's. Russia views Ukraine as existential. They are prepared for a war with the west. They do not want WWIII, but are prepared for it. The west does not believe Russia will attack a NATO country, however their political posture is best for business. Their actions show this.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 26, 2024 18:43:10 GMT
I don't think any prudent nation would take Putin's words at face value...
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Post by justme on Apr 27, 2024 11:30:34 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 27, 2024 12:28:03 GMT
From official Russian data
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Post by justme on Apr 27, 2024 23:23:34 GMT
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