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Post by missouriboy on Apr 11, 2024 14:54:42 GMT
If this "goes down", seems like, at a minimum, you could see Kharg Island put out of business and the Persian (Arabian) Gulf closed to traffic. Meaning ~20 percent of World petroleum supply shut down. Comrad Joe will not like that as gasoline prices would soar and his November hopes would sink even further. Saudi Arabia would be hurt but has its Red Sea facilities. The Magic Kingdom "might" support the elimination of its most mortal enemy. If the Hidden Imam rides, we may get to see what Iran and Israel really have. An unpleasant experience all around. So many additional possibilities. Sherman was right ... "War is all Hell". And he was perhaps an optimist.
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Post by justme on Apr 11, 2024 15:36:19 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 11, 2024 19:04:01 GMT
Why don't we see if the Israelies can do this all by themselves? Just a hop, skip and a jump away. They did it before with Iraq.
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Post by justme on Apr 12, 2024 12:23:49 GMT
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Post by justme on Apr 12, 2024 13:09:36 GMT
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Post by code on Apr 12, 2024 14:20:27 GMT
wartails.org/Watched a version in development at a viewing last night.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 12, 2024 19:15:34 GMT
IF Russia breaks through, they'll march to Poland. Any issues there and the rest of NATO are obligated to respond. The result will be far more expensive than supporting Ukraine at this point, maybe not just in monetary terms.
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 12, 2024 19:49:40 GMT
I agree acid.
The Ukraine we see is the result of very silly policy by the US and Europe for probably 25 years. Not respecting Russia post USSR breakup will or is proving expensive.
In spite of the claim that the Ukraine is part of Russia, the people of the Ukraine have the right to be their own country just as Texas has that right to independence and most here support that political tension.
As such I would like to see Ukraine become a country with boarders approximately where they are currently then that country be part of a trading group including Russia. Anyone who claims the Russian economy is going well is silly and denies the strength of a market economy which is not what they have, its a directed arms factory where people come a very distant 2nd.
I suspect that NATO will be the final arbitrator, and yes GDP does matter $40T against $1.5T.
The second world war clarified what defines the battles outcome but more importantly who can win the peace.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 12, 2024 23:51:22 GMT
IF Russia breaks through, they'll march to Poland. Any issues there and the rest of NATO are obligated to respond. The result will be far more expensive than supporting Ukraine at this point, maybe not just in monetary terms. The Russians have to first show that they can implement and sustain a major offensive across areas that are much greater than long fought-over small cities. It took them 2 years to take Avdivka. The long odds are still on Russia's side for obvious reasons. But not since the initial invasion, when they still had the 'cream' of their armies and equipment, have they taken any significant territory. In fact, they lost chunks of it. Perhaps they will have better luck with the replacements and their equipment? Maybe so. But they will know they had a fight. And so will the Ukrainians.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 13, 2024 5:04:35 GMT
This chap studies Russian artilliary in quantities and type as identified in storage, presence on battlefield and known destruction.
It's long winded (as all good studies should be) but essentially, stores are emptying and type on battlefield are increasingly of older types.
Barrel wear is not discussed but is important as an active barrel on the battlefield is slowly destroying itself due to use.
There will come a point where Russias artilliary capability culminates.
One can talk about how Russia is producing arms successfully and has a self sustaining military equipment output, however this doesn't appear in the presence of modern equipment on the battlefield. This is reflected in armour as well for example, where new T-90 tanks which could be considered 'tank production' are not what appear at the front line. Rather it is 50-70 year old tanks made serviceable from storage.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 13, 2024 11:17:44 GMT
I agree acid. The Ukraine we see is the result of very silly policy by the US and Europe for probably 25 years. Not respecting Russia post USSR breakup will or is proving expensive. In spite of the claim that the Ukraine is part of Russia, the people of the Ukraine have the right to be their own country just as Texas has that right to independence and most here support that political tension. As such I would like to see Ukraine become a country with boarders approximately where they are currently then that country be part of a trading group including Russia. Anyone who claims the Russian economy is going well is silly and denies the strength of a market economy which is not what they have, its a directed arms factory where people come a very distant 2nd. I suspect that NATO will be the final arbitrator, and yes GDP does matter $40T against $1.5T. The second world war clarified what defines the battles outcome but more importantly who can win the peace. Yes GDP does matter. Ultimately it is economies that win wars and Russia can not win a battle against the west. The economic might of the coalition including the United States, Germany, France, Great Britain, Poland, etc. will overwhelm Russia over time. The short term bump in the Russian economy was provided by deficit defense spending and will fade overtime as Russian oil production declines and the economic sanctions take their toll like a cancer. In addition Russia's biggest trading partner China has deep economic issues of their own... The longer this war goes on the worse it will be for Putin as the manufacturing and economic power of the west grinds the Russians down.
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Post by justme on Apr 16, 2024 19:37:07 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 16, 2024 20:37:49 GMT
I don't buy Russia's "official data".
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Post by justme on Apr 16, 2024 21:23:51 GMT
Here is the spinmaster ISW: The House Intelligence Committed posted this today: The above shows how dire Ukraine's position is. Looking at the proposed Ukraine Aid, it appears 13.8 billion USD worth of military aid will go to Ukraine. To put the scale of this conflict into perspective, Zelenskyy is asking for 25 Patriots. This is more than Europe has combined (almost double). A single Patriot is 1.1 billion USD. This does not include tech support, missiles, and training. They cannot even afford the 25 Patriot systems. Air defense is just one component of a military need. If there is any strategy involved, it is to have Ukraine defend well fortified lines, and hope for negotiations.
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Post by ratty on Apr 16, 2024 22:28:48 GMT
Here is the spinmaster ISW: The House Intelligence Committed posted this today: The above shows how dire Ukraine's position is. Looking at the proposed Ukraine Aid, it appears 13.8 billion USD worth of military aid will go to Ukraine. To put the scale of this conflict into perspective, Zelenskyy is asking for 25 Patriots. This is more than Europe has combined (almost double). A single Patriot is 1.1 billion USD. This does not include tech support, missiles, and training. They cannot even afford the 25 Patriot systems. Air defense is just one component of a military need. If there is any strategy involved, it is to have Ukraine defend well fortified lines, and hope for negotiations. So ... Russia is defeating the USA by proxy?
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