Weather Forecast Fails

[glennkoks]

I will start this thread by saying the meteorology today is almost solely based on computer models.  Which I think have a really good track record inside of three days.  But I thought it would be interesting to copy and paste some fails to show just how bad these could be.

On the evening of November 21st before I went to bed I checked the good old marine forecast for my area and this is what it said:


Marine Zone Forecast:
Overnight Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.

When I woke up at 4 AM this is what the forecast said:

Marine Zone Forecast:
Today Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.

The reality was:

Winds out of the north at 15 gusting to 22 knots in the bridge in Galveston.

Clearly a front came through that was forecast to stall out further inland and the wind was pretty brisk on the bay out of the opposite direction.  For those of us who make our living on the bays there is an absolutely huge difference between South at 5 to 10 and North at 22.  NOAA did not update their forecast until much later in the morning.

Just one recent example.

[walnut]

Nov 29, 2021 13:19:15 GMT glennkoks said:

I will start this thread by saying the meteorology today is almost solely based on computer models.  Which I think have a really good track record inside of three days.  But I thought it would be interesting to copy and paste some fails to show just how bad these could be.

On the evening of November 21st before I went to bed I checked the good old marine forecast for my area and this is what it said:


Marine Zone Forecast:
Overnight Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.

When I woke up at 4 AM this is what the forecast said:

Marine Zone Forecast:
Today Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.

The reality was:

Winds out of the north at 15 gusting to 22 knots in the bridge in Galveston.

Clearly a front came through that was forecast to stall out further inland and the wind was pretty brisk on the bay out of the opposite direction.  For those of us who make our living on the bays there is an absolutely huge difference between South at 5 to 10 and North at 22.  NOAA did not update their forecast until much later in the morning.

Just one recent example.

I can imagine how frustrating that would be. Un-forecasted 25 mph gusts North wind while your trying to make a living.

[glennkoks]

Nov 29, 2021 14:12:14 GMT walnut said:

Nov 29, 2021 13:19:15 GMT glennkoks said:

I will start this thread by saying the meteorology today is almost solely based on computer models.  Which I think have a really good track record inside of three days.  But I thought it would be interesting to copy and paste some fails to show just how bad these could be.

On the evening of November 21st before I went to bed I checked the good old marine forecast for my area and this is what it said:


Marine Zone Forecast:
Overnight Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.

When I woke up at 4 AM this is what the forecast said:

Marine Zone Forecast:
Today Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.

The reality was:

Winds out of the north at 15 gusting to 22 knots in the bridge in Galveston.

Clearly a front came through that was forecast to stall out further inland and the wind was pretty brisk on the bay out of the opposite direction.  For those of us who make our living on the bays there is an absolutely huge difference between South at 5 to 10 and North at 22.  NOAA did not update their forecast until much later in the morning.

Just one recent example.

I can imagine how frustrating that would be. Un-forecasted 25 mph gusts North wind while your trying to make a living.

I'm used to it. We have a saying on the water. When the forecast calls for 5 to 10, or 10 to 15 knots. You add those two numbers together.

[ratty]

I'm not sure that BoM models can be relied on for three days;  in my [remembered] experience, they are only good for a day on most occasions.  After that, they might be right ... or not.

[Sigurdur]

Nov 29, 2021 13:19:15 GMT glennkoks said:

I will start this thread by saying the meteorology today is almost solely based on computer models.  Which I think have a really good track record inside of three days.  But I thought it would be interesting to copy and paste some fails to show just how bad these could be.

On the evening of November 21st before I went to bed I checked the good old marine forecast for my area and this is what it said:


Marine Zone Forecast:
Overnight Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.

When I woke up at 4 AM this is what the forecast said:

Marine Zone Forecast:
Today Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of showers late.

The reality was:

Winds out of the north at 15 gusting to 22 knots in the bridge in Galveston.

Clearly a front came through that was forecast to stall out further inland and the wind was pretty brisk on the bay out of the opposite direction.  For those of us who make our living on the bays there is an absolutely huge difference between South at 5 to 10 and North at 22.  NOAA did not update their forecast until much later in the morning.

Just one recent example.

As a farmer, forecast reliability is fair, at best.  Talking with the NWS, they rely too much on models and not enough on brain power.  I have a friend who used to be the WDAY weatherman.  His forecasts are much more reliable than NWS.  He still plots etc, but only in his spare time as he has moved on to taking care of NDAWN. 

[phydeaux2363]

My favorites are when you are looking at the sky and can see the rain coming to an end, a fact confirmed by the very accurate local radar, and then the local weatherman predicts the rain will be ending in two to three hours. They get so tied to their computer models they don't take the time to look out the window at the actual weather!