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Post by ratty on Jan 31, 2024 12:26:02 GMT
And there is a new wave of southern hemisphere volunteers to help us out. Marta says she'll put her country's crooks up against all comers. The middle and eastern European migrations from ca. 1890-1920 is now exceeded by the countries south of Mexico and the Caribbean ...
 What's the spike circa 1990? People from the Middle East looking for training as airline pilots? |
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 31, 2024 13:35:02 GMT
I wonder how much of the money fleeing China is going into markets in the US and Japan? They seem to be inversely correlated. The markets are testing all time highs in the US and 10 year lows in China.
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Post by walnut on Jan 31, 2024 13:56:10 GMT
I wonder how much of the money fleeing China is going into markets in the US and Japan? They seem to be inversely correlated. The markets are testing all time highs in the US and 10 year lows in China. Well one thing to consider is that Fed quantitative tightening has more or less been ending. The balance sheet size has stabilized, money is no longer being sucked out of the banking system in that way (from what I read). |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 31, 2024 17:19:28 GMT
That was the Immigration Act of 1990. Expect a new big spike. ALL of Central America and selected Caribbean and South American failures are coming. Father Joseph has called ... and they are they are blazing a trail northward. Along with thousands(?) from other parts of the World that can get to Central America. Democrat States that have encouraged this should have to pay the bill. Sorry Blu. Told Marta that she should tell her younger brother to get his butt up here. Then we would know at least one of them. He worked in computer support for a Colombian oil company before it went belly up.
And there is a new wave of southern hemisphere volunteers to help us out. Marta says she'll put her country's crooks up against all comers. The middle and eastern European migrations from ca. 1890-1920 is now exceeded by the countries south of Mexico and the Caribbean ...
What's the spike circa 1990? |
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Post by Sigurdur on Jan 31, 2024 23:57:50 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 1, 2024 1:05:53 GMT
The old unrealized losses. They are not real if the banks can hold the notes to maturity. They only become real if the bank needs the assets now and has to sell. Kind of like our 401Ks. It's not real until you sell, pay your taxes and convert to cash. As long as there are no runs on the banks in the next few years until we can bring rates back down we should be ok. Key words in that sentence are: "should be ok" |
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2024 2:59:34 GMT
The old unrealized losses. They are not real if the banks can hold the notes to maturity. They only become real if the bank needs the assets now and has to sell. Kind of like our 401Ks. It's not real until you sell, pay your taxes and convert to cash. As long as there are no runs on the banks in the next few years until we can bring rates back down we should be ok. Key words in that sentence are: "should be ok" I think that their capital is marked to market and they run afoul of reserve ratio requirements, a margin call essentially. That's what happened to SVB, right? |
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Post by walnut on Feb 1, 2024 15:36:54 GMT
Man have they been lying to us about the economy.. I've been receptive to their gaslighting efforts I have to admit, wanting to believe the best. But the huge layoffs at UPS and elsewhere are evidence that we are being intentionally lied to. Our own business is extremely slow, but I was thinking that it was because we are in an interest rate sensitive industry, and that consumer goods etc were still selling fine. Nah, were in a pretty bad recession at this point. Criminals
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 1, 2024 17:06:38 GMT
Man have they been lying to us about the economy.. I've been receptive to their gaslighting efforts I have to admit, wanting to believe the best. But the huge layoffs at UPS and elsewhere are evidence that we are being intentionally lied to. Our own business is extremely slow, but I was thinking that it was because we are in an interest rate sensitive industry, and that consumer goods etc were still selling fine. Nah, were in a pretty bad recession at this point. Criminals With their FULL and WILLING complicit media. |
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Post by justme on Feb 1, 2024 17:32:21 GMT
Liquidated all my stock positions one weeks ago. Holding in 5% money market account until further notice. Every recession / depression has 1 common denominator. Debt......... The majority of economist and financial advisors predicted a recession that never materialized in 2023. The majority now predict a soft landing and bullish market for 2024. In 2023, GDP growth here in the USA was primarily driven by stimulus spending with leverage. This was a band-aid put on the debt flood gates by the US government. Debt is at record highs. www.cnbc.com/select/us-credit-card-debt-hits-all-time-high/ Savings are at record lows. This is due to high interest rates and bad spending habits. The culture of instant gratification. Fiscal responsibility has decreased with time. Big tech stock performance has diverged from the increase in revenue percentage. Apple stock price was $14.40 USD February of 2014. The current stock price is $186.01. Apple revenue was 170 billion USD for 2013. Apple revenue for 2023 was 383 billion USD. The markets are hitting new highs on hype and an unwavering ignorance of the system. At the same time we have record personal debt, government debt, and geopolitical instability. The USA's ability to simply print more money to 'solve' financial problems is waning. There are now alternatives to the USD. Will sit out of the markets for the next 9 - 12 months, and await a buying opportunity. |
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 1, 2024 21:09:17 GMT
I have been out of the market since September 2021. Taking my 5% bird in the hand as well. My decision was primarily based on inflation but also on the macro economic conditions and fundamentals like the Buffett Indicator. This position has cost me in lost gains. But I sleep better at night!...
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Post by walnut on Feb 2, 2024 4:44:01 GMT
I have been out of the market since September 2021. Taking my 5% bird in the hand as well. My decision was primarily based on inflation but also on the macro economic conditions and fundamentals like the Buffett Indicator. This position has cost me in lost gains. But I sleep better at night!... The real way to make money in the market is to buy after those big cyclical sell-offs. So have dry powder. That's common sense, especially in hindsight, but I'm always surprised how often people pass on those fairly rare opportunities. |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Feb 2, 2024 17:03:12 GMT
I have been out of the market since September 2021. Taking my 5% bird in the hand as well. My decision was primarily based on inflation but also on the macro economic conditions and fundamentals like the Buffett Indicator. This position has cost me in lost gains. But I sleep better at night!... Amen to that, Mr. Glenn. I moved out of equities (not entirely to be honest; I still have some blue chip dividend paying stocks), and like you have lost some gains. But I know my principal is safe as can be. |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 4, 2024 9:43:20 GMT
One must hope that the BLS is not "making funny" with the numbers. Every administration loves a good report card. And one never knows what pressure can be applied at the top. "Sometimes" Data Guys need to dig in their heals ... to avoid losing their souls. Data should always be questioned as to method and madness (embedded bias). All measurements and estimates have some error. But personal motives should not enter the equation.
A Tale From My Own Experience: I worked in Anchorage Alaska from 1981 to 1989.
When oil peaked in 1982 at $34/barrel and the city was flooded with lower 48’ers and people coming to Alaska to “get rich.”
And then in the mid 1980s when oil dropped and a depression began. Anchorage lost 30,000 people in population (out of ~236,000) and abandoned buildings could be found everywhere.www.onlyinyourstate.com/alaska/growing-up-in-the-1980s-ak/The saying amongst real estate people and bankers was: They are building houses for people that are building houses.
Alaska passed out huge sums of money from its oil revenues to local governments on the basis of population numbers. As City Demographer, my job was to develop and implement large annual population surveys that were methodologically acceptable to the State. I got to see the boom and the bust, both on the streets and in our numbers. The City's mayor and council were politically mixed and definitely a cantankerous lot. But, in my eyes, mostly "honest to a fault". Even as the City's population crashed (banks were dropping like flies), never once did the Mayor or senior Council members suggest that "maybe" I was over-estimating the decline. And "maybe" I should look at them again before submitting them to the State for certification. As a matter of course, I had already checked them multiple times for errors in our housing stock inventory and expected error ranges in our large stratified random samples. I remember the Mayor, Tom Fink, (a crusty old Republican) looking me in the eyes and asking ... "Do you believe your numbers?" I said I did. He responded ... "Well that's that then". As a matter of fact, the crash was so obvious that nobody ... not even myself ... would have believed otherwise. However, to a Data Guy, the fact that a group of politicians didn't even try to "fudge the numbers", puts them at the top of my "Honor List". I often wonder how many of our DC politicos would make that list.
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Post by ratty on Feb 4, 2024 12:44:36 GMT
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