The Economy

[glennkoks]

Dec 30, 2023 17:05:15 GMT code said:

"Since August, there are officially more arriving each month than there are children being born to American mothers. And these are just the official encounters -- we don't know how many avoided detection."

I don't do conspiracy theory but not long after New York City Mayor Eric Adams went public with the fact that illegal immigration will and I quote "destroy New York City" his chief fundraisers house was raided by the FBI.  Coincidence?  I don't think so.  The timing is highly suspect.  You don't toe the party line they sick the FBI on you.

[missouriboy]

Expect births to go up.  Anchor babies are "a thing".  If you are born here, you are automatically a citizen ... and parents will not be deported.

[txfarmer]

Dec 29, 2023 22:51:51 GMT glennkoks said:

I live in Texas and all hot, physical labor from framing, farming, roofing, welding etc is predominantly performed my Mexicans...

I live in Texas. I can attest that not all hot, physical labor is predominantly performed by Mexicans. Most unskilled low quality labor is done by Mexicans. Mexicans cut corners. They do the job the quickest way possible which often leads to further problems down the road.

Most Americans (white, black, yellow, whatever) are too lazy to do labor. That is why the story of the hard working mexican is the chief narrative. There are lots of hard working whites. There are hard working blacks. The Mexicans do the construction work and menial labor on farms and manufacturing not because their skills are unmatched...it's because they're not cut out for the more skill demanding jobs and modern Americans do not like being uncomfortable while working.

[txfarmer]

Upon review of what I posted, I should clarify some things. It was based on my observations in my industry through my area and also in the building and repairs of housing.

There are more whites and blacks rather than Mexicans that I know of doing the actual work on farms in my area. There are plenty of operations that hire Mexicans and most of them complain about the issues. Most any labor that is worth their salt on the farm easily goes to other industries which pay far better than farms can afford, so Mexicans fill the gaps.

Most of the Mexican labor is for very low quality work with a few of the better Mexicans who are somewhat competent managing the majority of the ones underneath them. And usually that "manager" is managed by someone actually making the calls.

I know of multiple issues with house building and remodeling where the "final work" was a terrible job and very unsafe on structural changes that were extremely obvious but the workers let it go by the way side seemingly without a second thought.

Road work/repair is terrible. Even the new roads are rough, and they never last long enough to justify the costs. A person can easily blame this on the DOT bureaucracy and the shady contractors and deals signed by heads of DOT areas. But the quality of the work of the low end labor speaks for itself. No cares for the final product.

Average Americans do not want the labor jobs the "typical Mexican" will do because they are too lazy and too comfortable. The Mexicans do the low end jobs not because it's their niche...it's because there is no competition from other demographics for the labor at the bottom.

[walnut]

Dec 30, 2023 17:06:36 GMT code said:

Dec 28, 2023 4:14:15 GMT walnut said:

My artificial intelligence auto-trader robot program is basically complete. It is showing good predictive power in testing so far. These are good F1 scores for a daytrading robot which is selective about committing capital, and not overfitted to training data.

care to share some source code?

I'd like to but I'd better not.  Going to get it copyrighted.  Planning to sell it to Nadella.  He probably wouldn't approve.

The program earned at a 46% annualized rate of return over the 8 month test period shorting VIXY, and that with the program typically risking not too much more than half the account value to trade with. 
67% of the trades were winners.  However that includes a very nice start in May and June which wasn't really maintained the next 5 months or so.  That's a typical pattern to trading with VIX futures though.
The program decides how much to risk and how long to stick with a bad trade (or a good trade).   (8 months test because was restricted by limited IB historical data availability in 30 minute bars).  It did even better shorting AGQ, my other favorite sine wave short.

I asked GPT 4 to evaluate the program, it said:  The program you've developed is indeed impressive, especially in its comprehensive approach to integrating real-time data processing, advanced financial analysis, machine learning, and automated trading........ " " 

Overall Assessment   
Your program is a sophisticated tool that harnesses the power of machine learning for financial trading. Its real-time data processing and automated decision-making capabilities place it at the forefront of modern trading technology. However, it's important to remember that high accuracy in back-testing or simulation doesn't always guarantee similar results in live trading, primarily due to the ever-changing nature of financial markets. Therefore, continuous testing, risk management, and adaptability are key to maintaining its effectiveness.

[code]

Dec 31, 2023 1:42:43 GMT missouriboy said:

Expect births to go up.  Anchor babies are "a thing".  If you are born here, you are automatically a citizen ... and parents will not be deported.

All debate in Congress is recorded, there is a copy of everything.  And when the whole citizenship thing was debated, congress very clearly said that anchor babies were not a thing, they were not citizens period, but they, them, the powers that be, the silent majority, the loud minority, whoever, whatever you want to call it, deep state, weak state, fake state, communists, Democrats, Republicans, aliens.  Somehow today anchor babies are a thing even though 

 the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." clearly said an illegal alien or immigrant having a child in America does not make the child a citizen.  Not my words, but the exact words agree to in Congress and still in the official record of the crafting, drafting and writing of the 14th.  

[missouriboy]

Dec 31, 2023 5:32:19 GMT code said:

Dec 31, 2023 1:42:43 GMT missouriboy said:

Expect births to go up.  Anchor babies are "a thing".  If you are born here, you are automatically a citizen ... and parents will not be deported.

All debate in Congress is recorded, there is a copy of everything.  And when the whole citizenship thing was debated, congress very clearly said that anchor babies were not a thing, they were not citizens period, but they, them, the powers that be, the silent majority, the loud minority, whoever, whatever you want to call it, deep state, weak state, fake state, communists, Democrats, Republicans, aliens.  Somehow today anchor babies are a thing even though 

 the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." clearly said an illegal alien or immigrant having a child in America does not make the child a citizen.  Not my words, but the exact words agree to in Congress and still in the official record of the crafting, drafting and writing of the 14th.  

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So ... if this falls in the category of "urban legend" or otherwise ... why do foreign moms supposedly place such emphasis on (even paying for) their baby to be born on US soil?  Big business I'm told.  I'm no lawyer but am very interested in this topic.  Not really into deporting babies ... but it seems key to extreme leverage on the issue of who can stay and who can't.  I have been in places where I've had reason to meet some of "these people".  That is not a slur.  There are All manner of human (from animal to saint) in these "teeming masses" (not unlike our own ancestors).  Imagine taking the Darien Gap ... some with whole families in tow.  How many in our "kept" urban jungles are worth even a pinch of the better of these?  I would trade three-quarters of our "hoods" for those of the migrants that could pass a basic morality test.  The rest I would equip with rifles and ammo ... and send them back to Venezuala to hang that bus driver on a tree. 

[walnut]

Not sure what is actually happening at the border, I certainly don't know who would have good data. But anecdotally, it seems to me that suddenly Tulsa is well on it's way to being fully half Mexican. We were at a South Tulsa Walmart the other evening, and my wife and I agreed that we thought that the last time we were there it was generally white, never associated that area with Mexican illegals. But it was 51+% Mexican that night. Other area Walmarts were already 75+% Mexican years ago. I was stopped at a school crosswalk a few weeks ago and happened to see the middle schoolers filing out. Well over 90% Mexican at that particular school, with the occasional white and black student at about the same low rate. This is what I am seeing here. Where are the white people? The upper middle class towns and neighborhoods are still mainly white, but large areas of Tulsa have generally changed.

[missouriboy]

Dec 31, 2023 14:52:55 GMT walnut said:

Not sure what is actually happening at the border, I certainly don't know who would have good data. But anecdotally, it seems to me that suddenly Tulsa is well on it's way to being fully half Mexican. We were at a South Tulsa Walmart the other evening, and my wife and I agreed that we thought that the last time we were there it was generally white, never associated that area with Mexican illegals. But it was 51+% Mexican that night. Other area Walmarts were already 75+% Mexican years ago. I was stopped at a school crosswalk a few weeks ago and happened to see the middle schoolers filing out. Well over 90% Mexican at that particular school, with the occasional white and black student at about the same low rate. This is what I am seeing here. Where are the white people? The upper middle class towns and neighborhoods are still mainly white, but large areas of Tulsa have generally changed.

I think that Mexicans stopped being the dominate group some years ago.  I think you are are a couple of borders too far north.  Think Honduras, El Salvador, Venezuala.  We are luckier than Europe.  They get Islamists ... and will need to stock up on ammo and hunting licenses.

[walnut]

Dec 31, 2023 19:44:10 GMT missouriboy said:

Dec 31, 2023 14:52:55 GMT walnut said:

Not sure what is actually happening at the border, I certainly don't know who would have good data. But anecdotally, it seems to me that suddenly Tulsa is well on it's way to being fully half Mexican. We were at a South Tulsa Walmart the other evening, and my wife and I agreed that we thought that the last time we were there it was generally white, never associated that area with Mexican illegals. But it was 51+% Mexican that night. Other area Walmarts were already 75+% Mexican years ago. I was stopped at a school crosswalk a few weeks ago and happened to see the middle schoolers filing out. Well over 90% Mexican at that particular school, with the occasional white and black student at about the same low rate. This is what I am seeing here. Where are the white people? The upper middle class towns and neighborhoods are still mainly white, but large areas of Tulsa have generally changed.

I think that Mexicans stopped being the dominate group some years ago.  I think you are are a couple of borders too far north.  Think Honduras, El Salvador, Venezuala.  We are luckier than Europe.  They get Islamists ... and will need to stock up on ammo and hunting licenses.

I agree.  Besides that, I'd rather have Guatemalans than our Khazarian mafia which presently has us by the throat. Happy New Year 

[duwayne]

The market has been good to us over the last 5 years.

The S&P 500 has doubled for a 15.6% annual return despite a significant decline last year and an earlier COVID decline.   

I managed to avoid a significant portion of these declines as I noted at the time(s) with my recommendation to sell (focus on cruise and airline stocks) ahead of the COVID drop, and a sell of the broader market in November 2021 with a buyback in May of 2022.

If one had aggressively followed these moves, it would have resulted in a more than a tripling of value over the 5 year period and an annual return of over 25%.   As I had noted earlier, I did not sell short all of my holdings during those periods of decline.

 

We didn't get a significant decline in 2023, so it would not be a surprise to see a 10%+ dip some time during 2024. 

 

[Sigurdur]

x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1742320807072739412?s=20

[code]

Jan 2, 2024 14:27:21 GMT duwayne said:

The market has been good to us over the last 5 years.

The S&P 500 has doubled for a 15.6% annual return despite a significant decline last year and an earlier COVID decline.   

I managed to avoid a significant portion of these declines as I noted at the time(s) with my recommendation to sell (focus on cruise and airline stocks) ahead of the COVID drop, and a sell of the broader market in November 2021 with a buyback in May of 2022.

If one had aggressively followed these moves, it would have resulted in a more than a tripling of value over the 5 year period and an annual return of over 25%.   As I had noted earlier, I did not sell short all of my holdings during those periods of decline.

 

We didn't get a significant decline in 2023, so it would not be a surprise to see a 10%+ dip some time during 2024. 

 

What do you think about the coming year?  Any thoughts, of course you do, any suggestions?

[code]

Dec 31, 2023 13:23:13 GMT missouriboy said:

Dec 31, 2023 5:32:19 GMT code said:

All debate in Congress is recorded, there is a copy of everything.  And when the whole citizenship thing was debated, congress very clearly said that anchor babies were not a thing, they were not citizens period, but they, them, the powers that be, the silent majority, the loud minority, whoever, whatever you want to call it, deep state, weak state, fake state, communists, Democrats, Republicans, aliens.  Somehow today anchor babies are a thing even though 

 the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." clearly said an illegal alien or immigrant having a child in America does not make the child a citizen.  Not my words, but the exact words agree to in Congress and still in the official record of the crafting, drafting and writing of the 14th.  

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So ... if this falls in the category of "urban legend" or otherwise ... why do foreign moms supposedly place such emphasis on (even paying for) their baby to be born on US soil?  Big business I'm told.  I'm no lawyer but am very interested in this topic.  Not really into deporting babies ... but it seems key to extreme leverage on the issue of who can stay and who can't.  I have been in places where I've had reason to meet some of "these people".  That is not a slur.  There are All manner of human (from animal to saint) in these "teeming masses" (not unlike our own ancestors).  Imagine taking the Darien Gap ... some with whole families in tow.  How many in our "kept" urban jungles are worth even a pinch of the better of these?  I would trade three-quarters of our "hoods" for those of the migrants that could pass a basic morality test.  The rest I would equip with rifles and ammo ... and send them back to Venezuala to hang that bus driver on a tree. 

Because nobody cares I guess?

[code]

Dec 31, 2023 13:23:13 GMT missouriboy said:

Dec 31, 2023 5:32:19 GMT code said:

All debate in Congress is recorded, there is a copy of everything.  And when the whole citizenship thing was debated, congress very clearly said that anchor babies were not a thing, they were not citizens period, but they, them, the powers that be, the silent majority, the loud minority, whoever, whatever you want to call it, deep state, weak state, fake state, communists, Democrats, Republicans, aliens.  Somehow today anchor babies are a thing even though 

 the Fourteenth Amendment, Section 1: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside." clearly said an illegal alien or immigrant having a child in America does not make the child a citizen.  Not my words, but the exact words agree to in Congress and still in the official record of the crafting, drafting and writing of the 14th.  

<style></style>

So ... if this falls in the category of "urban legend" or otherwise ... why do foreign moms supposedly place such emphasis on (even paying for) their baby to be born on US soil?  Big business I'm told.  I'm no lawyer but am very interested in this topic.  Not really into deporting babies ... but it seems key to extreme leverage on the issue of who can stay and who can't.  I have been in places where I've had reason to meet some of "these people".  That is not a slur.  There are All manner of human (from animal to saint) in these "teeming masses" (not unlike our own ancestors).  Imagine taking the Darien Gap ... some with whole families in tow.  How many in our "kept" urban jungles are worth even a pinch of the better of these?  I would trade three-quarters of our "hoods" for those of the migrants that could pass a basic morality test.  The rest I would equip with rifles and ammo ... and send them back to Venezuala to hang that bus driver on a tree. 

Mr. HOWARD. The first amendment is to section one, declaring that "all persons born in the United States,
and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the States wherein they reside." I do
not propose to say anything on that subject except that the question of citizenship has been so fully discussed in
this body as not to need any further elucidation, in my opinion. This amendment which I have offered is simply
declaratory of what I regard as the law of the land already, that every person born within the limits of the United
States, and subject to their jurisdiction, is by virtue of natural law and national law a citizen of the United States.
This will not, of course, include persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens, who belong to the
families of ambassadors or foreign ministers accredited to the Government of the United States, but will include
every other class of persons. It settles the great question of citizenship and removes all doubt as to what persons
are or are not citizens of the United States. This has long been a great desideratum in the jurisprudence and

legislation of this country.

Page 2890 of the Congressional Globe May 30th 1868

file:///D:/OneDrive/Desktop/Congressional-Debates-of-the-14th-Amendment.pdf