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Post by code on Jan 18, 2023 16:30:07 GMT
Dr. Doom
Opinion: This perfect storm of megathreats is even more dangerous than the 1970s or the 1930s, Roubini says
The view from Davos: We can expect more instability, higher risks, more intense conflict, and more frequent environmental disasters.
By Nouriel Roubini
Updated Jan. 18, 2023 11:04 am ET
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2023 18:29:37 GMT
Dr. Doom
Opinion: This perfect storm of megathreats is even more dangerous than the 1970s or the 1930s, Roubini says
The view from Davos: We can expect more instability, higher risks, more intense conflict, and more frequent environmental disasters.
By Nouriel Roubini
Updated Jan. 18, 2023 11:04 am ET
What he is describing are referred to by others as Fourth Turnings. Complexity and cause be damned ... they occur at regular intervals ... and qualify as cycles. Into this he throws the fear of climate change and a knee-jerk adoption of the "Great Man-made Warmers". Right timing, but wrong direction and cause. Cold is much worse than warm ... which he could see if he reviewed our history. He needs to change the list of climate authors he absorbs. When you're down to Mann you're out of science.
But as dreadful as those 30 years were, today’s megathreats are in some ways even more ominous. After all, the interwar generation did not have to deal with climate change, AI threats to employment, or the implicit liabilities associated with societal aging (since social-security systems were still in their early days, and most elderly people died before receiving their first pension check).
Moreover, the world wars were largely conventional conflicts, whereas now conflicts between major powers could rapidly spiral in more unconventional directions, potentially ending in a nuclear apocalypse.
We are therefore facing not only the worst of the 1970s (repeated negative aggregate supply shocks), but also the worst of the 2007-08 period (dangerously high debt ratios) and the worst of the 1930s. A new “geopolitical depression” is increasing the likelihood of cold and hot wars that could all too easily overlap and spin out of control.
As far as I can tell, no one convening in Davos today is writing the great novel of the age of megathreats. Yet today’s world increasingly manifests the sense of foreboding that one gets when reading Mann.
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Post by code on Jan 20, 2023 3:48:00 GMT
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Post by code on Jan 20, 2023 3:49:10 GMT
Dr. Doom
Opinion: This perfect storm of megathreats is even more dangerous than the 1970s or the 1930s, Roubini says
The view from Davos: We can expect more instability, higher risks, more intense conflict, and more frequent environmental disasters.
By Nouriel Roubini
Updated Jan. 18, 2023 11:04 am ET
What he is describing are referred to by others as Fourth Turnings. Complexity and cause be damned ... they occur at regular intervals ... and qualify as cycles. Into this he throws the fear of climate change and a knee-jerk adoption of the "Great Man-made Warmers". Right timing, but wrong direction and cause. Cold is much worse than warm ... which he could see if he reviewed our history. He needs to change the list of climate authors he absorbs. When you're down to Mann you're out of science.
But as dreadful as those 30 years were, today’s megathreats are in some ways even more ominous. After all, the interwar generation did not have to deal with climate change, AI threats to employment, or the implicit liabilities associated with societal aging (since social-security systems were still in their early days, and most elderly people died before receiving their first pension check).
Moreover, the world wars were largely conventional conflicts, whereas now conflicts between major powers could rapidly spiral in more unconventional directions, potentially ending in a nuclear apocalypse.
We are therefore facing not only the worst of the 1970s (repeated negative aggregate supply shocks), but also the worst of the 2007-08 period (dangerously high debt ratios) and the worst of the 1930s. A new “geopolitical depression” is increasing the likelihood of cold and hot wars that could all too easily overlap and spin out of control.
As far as I can tell, no one convening in Davos today is writing the great novel of the age of megathreats. Yet today’s world increasingly manifests the sense of foreboding that one gets when reading Mann.
I will have to review the turnings again |
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Post by Sigurdur on Jan 22, 2023 0:16:21 GMT
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Post by code on Feb 6, 2023 21:36:04 GMT
Auto repossessions are still high
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Post by Sigurdur on Feb 7, 2023 2:31:41 GMT
Auto repossessions are still high
And going higher. Amazing in the south how many apparent repos are taking place. |
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Post by walnut on Feb 7, 2023 4:24:44 GMT
Auto repossessions are still high
And going higher. Amazing in the south how many apparent repos are taking place. Why Sig, what have you seen? (I'm not doubting you, I've read that most Americans could not meet an unexpected $400 expense). |
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Post by Sigurdur on Feb 7, 2023 11:03:20 GMT
And going higher. Amazing in the south how many apparent repos are taking place. Why Sig, what have you seen? (I'm not doubting you, I've read that most Americans could not meet an unexpected $400 expense). Driving I-10, the number of "towed", or cars on platform is much higher than last year. Either a lot more breakdowns, or repos. |
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 7, 2023 14:59:08 GMT
In two of what I consider to be the barometric readings on the health of the economy: 1.) The personal savings rate sank to a record low. (Wannabe climatologists would use the term "unprecedented".) 2.) The number of people who carry credit card debt over from month to month has increased to 46% up from 39% a year ago. This is even more disturbing as the cost of carrying debt over from month to month has increased with the higher rates. www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/americans-lean-heavily-on-credit-cards-amid-inflation.html |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 9, 2023 0:23:44 GMT
Shipping container rates down, down, down.
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Post by Sigurdur on Feb 9, 2023 14:56:01 GMT
Shipping container rates down, down, down.
The level of debt will drive anguish. |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 9, 2023 19:17:20 GMT
Shipping container rates down, down, down.
The level of debt will drive anguish. Yes. But for those of us without debt, the pickings prices "may" be better. Better is a "relative" term. 
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Post by Sigurdur on Feb 9, 2023 20:08:27 GMT
The level of debt will drive anguish. Yes. But for those of us without debt, the pickings prices "may" be better. Better is a "relative" term.
Agree |
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Post by code on Feb 10, 2023 18:04:36 GMT
Shipping container rates down, down, down.
Interesting. |
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