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Post by missouriboy on Dec 31, 2022 0:35:29 GMT
Caroline Ellison, associate of Sam Bankman-Fried, says she’s ‘truly sorry’ for stealing billions of FTX customer money
She sho enough is. I just know it.  |
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Post by code on Jan 4, 2023 17:20:17 GMT
Fed rate predictions for end of year, anybody?
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Post by code on Jan 6, 2023 0:38:33 GMT
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Post by walnut on Jan 6, 2023 4:03:23 GMT
Fed rate predictions for end of year, anybody? Satan has come for a season to destroy.
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Post by Sigurdur on Jan 6, 2023 12:42:43 GMT
Fed rate predictions for end of year, anybody? Up another 1.5 points |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 6, 2023 13:36:21 GMT
Fed rate predictions for end of year, anybody? Satan has come for a season to destroy.
But the sun also rises ... with a similar cast of characters. And the serpent and his followers will return to the pit. |
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Post by walnut on Jan 6, 2023 13:47:17 GMT
Satan has come for a season to destroy.
But the sun also rises ... with a similar cast of characters. And the serpent and his followers will return to the pit. But woe to the earth and the sea, because the devil has gone down to you! He is filled with fury, because he knows that his time is short.' |
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Post by douglavers on Jan 6, 2023 22:20:16 GMT
Lower than now, after a NH summer spike.
Recession -or depression- will see to that as Fed panics.
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Post by nonentropic on Jan 6, 2023 23:14:55 GMT
The inflation that we have now is a little different from previous such events.
The pulse of price increases was strongly driven by supply chain collapse and ludicrous pricing. We in our business saw a shipping container being shipped from Sing. to NZ rise from US$600 to US$9000 yes 15X. That is now below US$3000 and still falling this does not even begin to discuss inventory build to compensate for poor reliability.
The US never got this bad and will recover much faster so inflation will fall due to a cost falling but not driven by interest rate rise.
That there has been cost push from this into other sectors is clear, very specifically the labour market cost. again drive by shortages of manpower and reduction of productivity due stupid C19 restriction. The restrictions will go but the hard labour rates will not fall they have a strong ratchet built in.
The other factor that is playing out is the housing market. A good book I read some years ago written by a very intellectual New York Jew I think it was call "The Next 100 Years" indicates that population push is going due to global demographics, its a good read, and compounded now by C19 restraining emigration generally. And then slammed by the interest rate cycle which has been falling since 1980's but has to rise because its negative sort off.
Ultimately in an ordered world inflation will be 2% housing interest rates will be 5% to 7%. If your family income is $100k/Yr then paying more than $15k/yr in interest is not smart without "capital gain" if that ever lives in a stable world again, so borrowing more than $300k is likely imprudent and most certainly not more than $500k.
Look around you and that is not what you see here in NZ or Australia, we sell ourselves on the notion that we live in "Gods Own" the other great Australasian saying is "yeh right".
The official cash rate as it is called down here will not go above the inflation rate which is different from the past but will approach 6% and that will be eye watering for the mortgage market.
For savers this will be a relief and we may see the end of the zombie companies that destroy the marketplace with poor performance supported by 1% money.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 7, 2023 5:07:39 GMT
In the period 2020-2022 there were about 20 million homes purchased in the US. Same period median home price in the US went up by $123,000 (46%). that price difference would total about $2.5 trillion. Halve that to account for a 3-year spread and that's $1.25 trillion ... which would be about 5% of US GDP. That extra 46% is going to be lost to institutions if buyers default (or to owners otherwise) ... and is not likely coming back for a while. Those who sold these inflated homes received a surplus if not reinvested in new homes. This does not account for any fall in housing prices below 2019 values. Overall, there were about 92 million owner-occupied housing units in the US according to the 2020 Census.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 7, 2023 5:34:04 GMT
I don't normally go to MSNBC for anything, but this article on the current House Speakership fight is encouraging. The US government's ability to spend needs to be strangled. And this seems to be what the House Rebels are after ... and may get ... if the Republicans can hold together. Not an easy fight, but it needs to be had. The defectors will be easy to spot, and need to be held to account for their actions. The Federal bureaucracy needs to be seriously weeded.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 12, 2023 1:03:10 GMT
Property prices falling in Europe too.
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Post by code on Jan 16, 2023 2:44:18 GMT
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Post by code on Jan 16, 2023 2:45:27 GMT
I don't normally go to MSNBC for anything, but this article on the current House Speakership fight is encouraging. The US government's ability to spend needs to be strangled. And this seems to be what the House Rebels are after ... and may get ... if the Republicans can hold together. Not an easy fight, but it needs to be had. The defectors will be easy to spot, and need to be held to account for their actions. The Federal bureaucracy needs to be seriously weeded.
I agree the spending needs to stop, but I have little faith it will. |
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Post by code on Jan 16, 2023 3:05:02 GMT
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