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Post by glennkoks on Aug 2, 2022 14:34:15 GMT
Wow, I thought this mild recession was over? With that being said, I've changed my mind as well, many times... You must have missed where I acknowledged that above. That said, I made a small killing in the stock market since I said that lol. I was wrong and right. I have a business and employees who like to be paid, I have not much choice but hope for the best. Good call, a small killing is much better than what I did on the outside looking in! The current run has made me second guess my exit last September. I keep telling myself to wait and be patient. Time will tell. I do find myself longing to hit the buy button! Just not yet. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 5, 2022 12:48:06 GMT
You must have missed where I acknowledged that above. That said, I made a small killing in the stock market since I said that lol. I was wrong and right. I have a business and employees who like to be paid, I have not much choice but hope for the best. Good call, a small killing is much better than what I did on the outside looking in! The current run has made me second guess my exit last September. I keep telling myself to wait and be patient. Time will tell. I do find myself longing to hit the buy button! Just not yet. Well you know I'm trying to be optimistic, but this is strange even to me:
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Post by code on Aug 7, 2022 17:00:31 GMT
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Post by code on Aug 7, 2022 17:04:56 GMT
Mild recession ended at 10:30 am last Thursday July 14th in the US. Not sure about those Euros though. Glad I bought Costco among others I said this?? Our business is very slow.
Theoretically, stock prices represent the present value of future cash flows, discounted back at a rate which includes a risk premium + the risk free rate of interest. The stock market is generally very forward looking and is a leading indicator of the economy. We could infer that investors have thought that a recession was coming since New Years, hence the 2 quarter drop. But the stock market has lately been bullish. So maybe this recession will be relatively mild.
I'm up 12% in two weeks. Costco has knocked it out of the park, Amazon beat on earnings today and killed it, and Microsoft has been going up too.
Anytime you want to share proprietary insights on this thread I will be reading. I drive a 1995 Chevy S-10 Blazer with 300K on the Odo not because I want to. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 8, 2022 1:12:16 GMT
I hate to waver and frequently change my mind, but just for the record, I think that our specific trouble in my own business is more related to the persistent bubble of hot air over Texas last few weeks. It's been a long time since we have had that kind of heat, and I forgot how that really shuts down business. Construction projects get put off. And with high diesel, we did not get sales from more Northern locations like we used to. So it was a local slowdown impacting our business. I think things will get back on track soon.
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Post by walnut on Aug 8, 2022 1:16:21 GMT
I said this?? Our business is very slow.
Theoretically, stock prices represent the present value of future cash flows, discounted back at a rate which includes a risk premium + the risk free rate of interest. The stock market is generally very forward looking and is a leading indicator of the economy. We could infer that investors have thought that a recession was coming since New Years, hence the 2 quarter drop. But the stock market has lately been bullish. So maybe this recession will be relatively mild.
I'm up 12% in two weeks. Costco has knocked it out of the park, Amazon beat on earnings today and killed it, and Microsoft has been going up too.
Anytime you want to share proprietary insights on this thread I will be reading. I drive a 1995 Chevy S-10 Blazer with 300K on the Odo not because I want to. Code, if it pulls back to some degree, buy some Costco stock. And just forget about it for 3 or 4 years. Costco management will reward you very handsomely for it. Costco is a slightly defensive stock which is also a high flier growth stock.
The market is going to tease making another run at the lows. It may not happen though. Still a lot of money rattling around in this economy, that's why shelves are bare at many stores. If this is a recession, it's a very unusual recession, with high demand for consumer goods and low unemployment.
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Post by Sigurdur on Aug 8, 2022 3:05:21 GMT
Anytime you want to share proprietary insights on this thread I will be reading. I drive a 1995 Chevy S-10 Blazer with 300K on the Odo not because I want to. Code, if it pulls back to some degree, buy some Costco stock. And just forget about it for 3 or 4 years. Costco management will reward you very handsomely for it. Costco is a slightly defensive stock which is also a high flier growth stock.
The market is going to tease making another run at the lows. It may not happen though. Still a lot of money rattling around in this economy, that's why shelves are bare at many stores. If this is a recession, it's a very unusual recession, with high demand for consumer goods and low unemployment.
People aren't taking normal defensive measures. They are buying things today anticipating the price will be higher tomorrow. When they run out of credit, they have become accustomed to getting a "stimulus" check. The National Debt keeps marching higher. The Inflation reduction act will accelerate inflation. The US is now a communist government. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 8, 2022 3:14:27 GMT
Code, if it pulls back to some degree, buy some Costco stock. And just forget about it for 3 or 4 years. Costco management will reward you very handsomely for it. Costco is a slightly defensive stock which is also a high flier growth stock.
The market is going to tease making another run at the lows. It may not happen though. Still a lot of money rattling around in this economy, that's why shelves are bare at many stores. If this is a recession, it's a very unusual recession, with high demand for consumer goods and low unemployment.
People aren't taking normal defensive measures. They are buying things today anticipating the price will be higher tomorrow. When they run out of credit, they have become accustomed to getting a "stimulus" check. The National Debt keeps marching higher. The Inflation reduction act will accelerate inflation. The US is now a communist government. It's Weimar 2022 with all the trappings. |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 8, 2022 13:21:24 GMT
I guess I can get back in the market. On
A straight party line vote the Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act! All it took was some democrats taxing and spending to get us back on track!
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 8, 2022 14:57:53 GMT
I guess I can get back in the market. On A straight party line vote the Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act! All it took was some democrats taxing and spending to get us back on track! In the physical world, faith can only defy gravity for so long. |
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Post by walnut on Aug 9, 2022 2:14:13 GMT
I guess I can get back in the market. On A straight party line vote the Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act! All it took was some democrats taxing and spending to get us back on track! In the physical world, faith can only defy gravity for so long. I'd rather have equity in well managed companies which have pricing power to offset inflation, than pink and yellow clown dollars which lose about 10% per year. Be careful not to stop on Boardwalk or Park Place.  |
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Post by walnut on Aug 9, 2022 4:29:22 GMT
Just kidding around guys, I understand your thinking about it.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 9, 2022 23:18:04 GMT
July was the best month for the markets in over two years. The big question is why? I am no stock market analyst but what has changed? The Fed raised rates 75 basis points again and the market goes up big? To my way of thinking increased rates means higher mortgage costs. Predictably single family housing starts dropped 8.1% Walmart missed pretty bad, AT&T and T-Mobile reported people are struggling to pay their cell phone bills. On the macro scale things look bad. Russia is squeezing the gas supply to Europe which cant be good for their GDP outlook. China has big problems. People are refusing to pay the mortgage on their unfinished houses and there have even been bank runs as people try to withdraw their life savings. China has even threatened to shoot down Nancy Pelosi's plane should it go to Taiwan. Fundamentals and market uncertainty look worse to me now than they did when I got out last September. Think I will just go with my "gut" hunch and stay away a while longer... Bigger than most might expect if Peter Zeihan's analysis / forecasts are correct,
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Post by walnut on Aug 10, 2022 13:47:50 GMT
Anytime you want to share proprietary insights on this thread I will be reading. I drive a 1995 Chevy S-10 Blazer with 300K on the Odo not because I want to. Code, if it pulls back to some degree, buy some Costco stock. And just forget about it for 3 or 4 years. Costco management will reward you very handsomely for it. Costco is a slightly defensive stock which is also a high flier growth stock.
The market is going to tease making another run at the lows. It may not happen though. Still a lot of money rattling around in this economy, that's why shelves are bare at many stores. If this is a recession, it's a very unusual recession, with high demand for consumer goods and low unemployment.
If you didn't buy Costco on yesterday's little pullback, ya missed a pretty good opportunity. Up $14 on today's inflation report. I bought some more shares yesterday afternoon. |
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 11, 2022 2:15:08 GMT
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