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Post by glennkoks on Jul 13, 2022 1:59:48 GMT
This is a great video. It seems the Europeans want to act tough and impose sanctions against Russia but pretty much ignore them if there is any hard times involved. I don't think Putin is going to let them fill their gas storage to capacity in time for winter. Why would they? To give the Europeans time to find alternative energy sources and bring coal fired plants back online?
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Post by walnut on Jul 19, 2022 14:15:33 GMT
Mild recession ended at 10:30 am last Thursday July 14th in the US. Not sure about those Euros though. Glad I bought Costco among others
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 20, 2022 2:32:13 GMT
Mild recession ended at 10:30 am last Thursday July 14th in the US. Not sure about those Euros though. Glad I bought Costco among others |
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Post by walnut on Jul 20, 2022 2:50:08 GMT
Mild recession ended at 10:30 am last Thursday July 14th in the US. Not sure about those Euros though. Glad I bought Costco among others Up 7% |
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 20, 2022 3:34:49 GMT
Thats one way of looking at it. -13% YTD for the DOW is another. Be careful, some of the biggest days come during Bear Markets. Inverted yield curves are highly indicative of a recession 12 to 18 months out... Not today. Personally, I do not think the recession even starts until next year. |
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Post by walnut on Jul 20, 2022 3:42:28 GMT
Thats one way of looking at it. -13% YTD for the DOW is another. Be careful, some of the biggest days come during Bear Markets. Inverted yield curves are highly indicative of a recession 12 to 18 months out... Not today. Personally, I do not think the recession even starts until next year. It's possible that I'll have to wait out a real bear market. But I'm ok in stocks at these prices, comfortable long term.
-13% is hardly noteworthy compared to the infinitely compounded wealth that stocks have produced year after year. That's the bigger story
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 20, 2022 17:39:55 GMT
Thats one way of looking at it. -13% YTD for the DOW is another. Be careful, some of the biggest days come during Bear Markets. Inverted yield curves are highly indicative of a recession 12 to 18 months out... Not today. Personally, I do not think the recession even starts until next year. It's possible that I'll have to wait out a real bear market. But I'm ok in stocks at these prices, comfortable long term.
-13% is hardly noteworthy compared to the infinitely compounded wealth that stocks have produced year after year. That's the bigger story
Absolutely. The current bounce(possible dead cat) may also be a good opportunity to re-allocate or cash out and lock In handsome gains made over the last 13 years! |
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Post by walnut on Jul 28, 2022 21:52:13 GMT
Mild recession ended at 10:30 am last Thursday July 14th in the US. Not sure about those Euros though. Glad I bought Costco among others I said this?? Our business is very slow.
Theoretically, stock prices represent the present value of future cash flows, discounted back at a rate which includes a risk premium + the risk free rate of interest. The stock market is generally very forward looking and is a leading indicator of the economy. We could infer that investors have thought that a recession was coming since New Years, hence the 2 quarter drop. But the stock market has lately been bullish. So maybe this recession will be relatively mild.
I'm up 12% in two weeks. Costco has knocked it out of the park, Amazon beat on earnings today and killed it, and Microsoft has been going up too.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 28, 2022 22:14:08 GMT
Mild recession ended at 10:30 am last Thursday July 14th in the US. Not sure about those Euros though. Glad I bought Costco among others I said this?? Our business is very slow.
Theoretically, stock prices represent the present value of future cash flows, discounted back at a rate which includes a risk premium + the risk free rate of interest. The stock market is generally very forward looking and is a leading indicator of the economy. We could infer that investors have thought that a recession was coming since New Years, hence the 2 quarter drop. But the stock market has lately been bullish. So maybe this recession will be relatively mild. I'm up 12% in two weeks. Costco has knocked it out of the park, Amazon beat on earnings today and killed it, and Microsoft has been going up too.
Hope you're right Walnut. But George says "we're going away". I give it equal chances. |
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Post by walnut on Jul 28, 2022 22:33:07 GMT
I said this?? Our business is very slow.
Theoretically, stock prices represent the present value of future cash flows, discounted back at a rate which includes a risk premium + the risk free rate of interest. The stock market is generally very forward looking and is a leading indicator of the economy. We could infer that investors have thought that a recession was coming since New Years, hence the 2 quarter drop. But the stock market has lately been bullish. So maybe this recession will be relatively mild. I'm up 12% in two weeks. Costco has knocked it out of the park, Amazon beat on earnings today and killed it, and Microsoft has been going up too.
Hope you're right Walnut. But George says "we're going away". I give it equal chances. Well, I am quite concerned about the economy myself. I feel better about the long-term prospects of the stock market. |
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 1, 2022 14:25:32 GMT
July was the best month for the markets in over two years. The big question is why? I am no stock market analyst but what has changed? The Fed raised rates 75 basis points again and the market goes up big? To my way of thinking increased rates means higher mortgage costs. Predictably single family housing starts dropped 8.1% Walmart missed pretty bad, AT&T and T-Mobile reported people are struggling to pay their cell phone bills. On the macro scale things look bad. Russia is squeezing the gas supply to Europe which cant be good for their GDP outlook. China has big problems. People are refusing to pay the mortgage on their unfinished houses and there have even been bank runs as people try to withdraw their life savings. China has even threatened to shoot down Nancy Pelosi's plane should it go to Taiwan.
Fundamentals and market uncertainty look worse to me now than they did when I got out last September. Think I will just go with my "gut" hunch and stay away a while longer...
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Post by walnut on Aug 2, 2022 0:32:45 GMT
The Biden gaslighting is astonishing. We wholesale building materials, and I can tell you this- this new recession is looking worse to me than the 2020 covid slowdown already. Last two weeks, business is DEAD. I think that it was the shock of $6 diesel that throttled the golden goose.
Gasoline futures back below $3 today. Fuel is really coming down fast and hard. I filled up for $3.37/gallon today.
Fingers crossed that this recession, which is indeed very sharp, may be short. The stock market, in its god-like wisdom, seems to be handicapping it that way.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 2, 2022 0:59:56 GMT
The Biden gaslighting is astonishing. We wholesale building materials, and I can tell you this- this new recession is looking worse to me than the 2020 covid slowdown already. Last two weeks, business is DEAD. I think that it was the shock of $6 diesel that throttled the golden goose.
Gasoline futures back below $3 today. Fuel is really coming down fast and hard. I filled up for $3.37/gallon today.
Fingers crossed that this recession, which is indeed very sharp, may be short. The stock market, in its god-like wisdom, seems to be handicapping it that way.
Wow, I thought this mild recession was over? With that being said, I've changed my mind as well, many times... |
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Post by walnut on Aug 2, 2022 1:13:22 GMT
The Biden gaslighting is astonishing. We wholesale building materials, and I can tell you this- this new recession is looking worse to me than the 2020 covid slowdown already. Last two weeks, business is DEAD. I think that it was the shock of $6 diesel that throttled the golden goose.
Gasoline futures back below $3 today. Fuel is really coming down fast and hard. I filled up for $3.37/gallon today.
Fingers crossed that this recession, which is indeed very sharp, may be short. The stock market, in its god-like wisdom, seems to be handicapping it that way.
Wow, I thought this mild recession was over? With that being said, I've changed my mind as well, many times... You must have missed where I acknowledged that above. That said, I made a small killing in the stock market since I said that lol. I was wrong and right. I have a business and employees who like to be paid, I have not much choice but hope for the best. |
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 2, 2022 1:26:43 GMT
Hope you're right Walnut. But George says "we're going away". I give it equal chances. Well, I am quite concerned about the economy myself. I feel better about the long-term prospects of the stock market. Assuming there is enough stock to market and most people can afford to buy it. |
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