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Post by code on May 7, 2022 17:01:32 GMT
I think it's going to continue to go lower. The question is, will we get a big dramatic crash, or will it continue to grind down gradually for a period of time with encouraging green days mixed in? Agreed. I am so glad I pulled my main retirement money out of the crap offered by the state of Washington in our retirement account last year and parked it into the safest offering that was available. The money is not growing... much, but, on the plus side we have not lost anything. I would love to take it all out, but it is locked in by the state. The Washington State PERS system (Public Employees Retirement System) is a joke. At retirement, the money will be available. |
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Post by walnut on May 7, 2022 17:46:39 GMT
I have at times I have pondered a full-blown market meltdown, there is a part of me that wishes to see it happen. Me too because I would like to invest in stocks. They are still too high. For instance, even after dropping 40% from the highs of last year, Amazon is still at a 55 P/E. |
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Post by glennkoks on May 8, 2022 11:19:17 GMT
I think it's going to continue to go lower. The question is, will we get a big dramatic crash, or will it continue to grind down gradually for a period of time with encouraging green days mixed in? The market freaks out and loses 1200 points the day after the Fed raised rates the by the largest amount in 22 years. A very well telegraphed move by the Fed. What do you think is going to happen when they raise rates five maybe six more times in a row by 50 points each time? The most recent Bull we have been in essentially since 2009 has been largely fueled by one thing. Cheap money and a very accommodative Fed. I would argue that the Plunge Protection Team has been hard at work the last few months keeping the market for collapsing already and keeping everyone from selling off and or re-allocating to safety. Not me. I got out last September when it became clear the inflation we were seeing was anything but transitory. Moved everything in my 401Ks into a money market. Now I'm only losing to inflation... The sentiment of many people on some of the financial forums I am on is "the market is already down 15% and I'm going to ride this one out". My advice would be to take a 15% loss before the ugliness really sets in. www.investopedia.com/terms/p/plunge-protection-team.asp |
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Post by blustnmtn on May 8, 2022 12:57:40 GMT
I generally believe the stock market is controlled by the large institutional investors and that the private investors are their tools to be managed. The DOT Com and housing financing crashes taught me expensive lessons. YMMV😎
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Post by missouriboy on May 8, 2022 14:26:50 GMT
I generally believe the stock market is controlled by the large institutional investors and that the private investors are their tools to be managed. The DOT Com and housing financing crashes taught me expensive lessons. YMMV😎 That is what my 22-year old son says about the crypto market and I have no reason to doubt him. Not my cup of tea. Hard assets retain a value that moves up and down to levels that select groups of people can afford at any given time. The highly inflated housing market will deflate with the ability of people to pay the price. And prices are neighborhood specific. Our Old Southwest neighborhood adjoins the university and the extensive trails system. Very few rentals. Built up from the late 1800s through the 1960s m0stly. It retains a premium ... and that floats in comparison to the rest. In 2008 I bought into the low end of a high end location. Low end prices were floating in the $160k range. The current low end is floating at or below $300K. It will decline, but probably not as much as less desirable neighborhoods. Everything is relative and it will not evaporate. As long as our University supports the demand for it. Raw forest and ag land too ... but a different market. Bill Gates will only buy our 1880s family farm over my dead body. I' sure he "could" arrange that. |
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Post by walnut on May 8, 2022 15:26:05 GMT
I generally believe the stock market is controlled by the large institutional investors and that the private investors are their tools to be managed. The DOT Com and housing financing crashes taught me expensive lessons. YMMV😎 That is what my 22-year old son says about the crypto market and I have no reason to doubt him. Not my cup of tea. Hard assets retain a value that moves up and down to levels that select groups of people can afford at any given time. The highly inflated housing market will deflate with the ability of people to pay the price. And prices are neighborhood specific. Our Old Southwest neighborhood adjoins the university and the extensive trails system. Very few rentals. Built up from the late 1800s through the 1960s m0stly. It retains a premium ... and that floats in comparison to the rest. In 2008 I bought into the low end of a high end location. Low end prices were floating in the $160k range. The current low end is floating at or below $300K. It will decline, but probably not as much as less desirable neighborhoods. Everything is relative and it will not evaporate. As long as our University supports the demand for it. Raw forest and ag land too ... but a different market. Bill Gates will only buy our 1880s family farm over my dead body. I' sure he "could" arrange that. Cryptos not my cup of tea either. About as far as you can get from "hard assets". And they have been no hedge against inflation so far, nor a hedge against the stock market. They seem to move exactly with the tech sector. I like the idea of cryptos as a hedge against the Fed and the IRS. But they are many times too volatile still to be considered a realistic store of wealth. |
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Post by code on May 9, 2022 17:14:28 GMT
Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked in Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBSEverything here looks ok, but I wonder what the rest of the year will bring.
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Post by flearider on May 9, 2022 18:24:08 GMT
things will bite those with high loans in 6 months or so a yr from now high interest rates will hit those ending there 5 yr fix rate .. another 6 months after that i might buy a few houses cheap ..   there will be more looking to rent .. |
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Post by glennkoks on May 10, 2022 14:27:24 GMT
April CPI numbers come out tomorrow morning at 8:30.
May be a very interesting day in the market tomorrow.
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Post by Sigurdur on May 10, 2022 23:51:50 GMT
April CPI numbers come out tomorrow morning at 8:30. May be a very interesting day in the market tomorrow. Biden administration said today they are on top of inflation. We are sooooo screwed. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 11, 2022 0:31:16 GMT
April CPI numbers come out tomorrow morning at 8:30. May be a very interesting day in the market tomorrow. Biden administration said today they are on top of inflation. We are sooooo screwed.  |
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Post by glennkoks on May 11, 2022 2:47:05 GMT
April CPI numbers come out tomorrow morning at 8:30. May be a very interesting day in the market tomorrow. Biden administration said today they are on top of inflation. We are sooooo screwed. I am not the Fed Chairman. But I have known that inflation was not "transitory" at least 8 months ago. Which means they let this go many more months than they had to because they are either incompetent or liars. Neither are acceptable. |
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Post by walnut on May 11, 2022 2:51:51 GMT
Biden lied when he said that the inflation was not caused by govt spending. Obviously it was. Gaslighting us
(what they spent, they printed)
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Post by ratty on May 11, 2022 5:16:26 GMT
Biden lied when he said that the inflation was not caused by govt spending. Obviously it was. Gaslighting us (what they spent, they printed)
The money tree to the rescue.  |
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Post by nonentropic on May 11, 2022 5:42:07 GMT
The fan is spinning the BS is flying. Same in NZ, not my fault that the a tenth of a trillion caused inflation in a country of 5 million people.
Friend of mine paid $2M company tax yesterday very pleased with himself, however his peak month of $3.8M achieved 4 months ago is now a distant memory as he is currently running at about 55% of that the wall is hit!
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there will be more looking to rent .. 
