|
|
Post by missouriboy on Aug 10, 2024 20:00:02 GMT
That's A Scary Picture - One Mean Queen.[img style="max-width:60%;" src="https://w ww.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2024-08-09_10-18-14.jpg?itok=pmtiQ43v" alt=" "] 
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Aug 10, 2024 21:13:05 GMT
Having watched the Big florida Shebang of 2008-10+ This one seems if anything possibly worse early on.
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Aug 10, 2024 22:03:29 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Aug 10, 2024 22:19:35 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Aug 16, 2024 14:48:46 GMT
The economy according to Arthur Laffer. Long but good. Ignore the cover image.
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Aug 19, 2024 0:02:08 GMT
May you live in interesting times. 
|
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Aug 21, 2024 1:21:49 GMT
I sold a significant portion of my equity holdings recently on the expectation as stated months ago that stocks would fall 10% from their highs in 2024. My plan was then to buy back. The S&P 500 did fall 10% as I predicted but unfortunately for me that is a rounded figure. It fell only 9.7% to the first decimal point. It never hit my SPY buy point of -10.0%. Since then the market has rebounded to near new highs. I've accepted that the market may not fall to the point I had predicted any time soon. I'm not so interested in buying now that the market is up 10%, so I'm selling "out of the market" puts in various stocks using my money market funds as collateral. This hopefully will provide profits while the market rests or slowly rises or drops a little. If the market drops a lot, I will end up fully invested again as the puts are exercised by others.
I can also say the market fell 10% as I had predicted if anyone asks.
|
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Aug 21, 2024 1:43:30 GMT
I sold a significant portion of my equity holdings recently on the expectation as stated months ago that stocks would fall 10% from their highs in 2024. My plan was then to buy back. The S&P 500 did fall 10% as I predicted but unfortunately for me that is a rounded figure. It fell only 9.7% to the first decimal point. It never hit my SPY buy point of -10.0%. Since then the market has rebounded to set new highs. I've accepted that the market may not fall to the point I had predicted any time soon. I'm not so interested in buying now that the market is up 10%, so I'm selling "out of the market" puts in various stocks using my money market funds as collateral. This hopefully will provide profits while the market rests or slowly rises or drops a little. If the market drops a lot, I will end up fully invested again as the puts are exercised by others.
I can also say the market fell 10% as I had predicted if anyone asks.
Selling puts on stocks that you like can be a very attractive thing to do. Try to sell the overpriced ones. Your broker should have an options pricer, usually a modified Black-Scholes pricing model. |
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Aug 21, 2024 11:50:56 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Aug 21, 2024 13:17:26 GMT
The best barometer I have is my own business as I have posted several times, and after an encouraging early summer, business has fallen off the cliff (again) now in late summer. Some of our more established customers seem to be having trouble paying their bills. People are getting testy. Truck brokers call all day long. We're definitely not out of the woods yet. Actually I have never seen it completely dead like this. Strange fast stops and starts.
My subjective opinion is that this happened when Kamala came out with the full media support. The economy is absolutely terrified, they have heard her insane communist rantings, and people suspect another stolen election is in the works.
|
|
|
|
Post by blustnmtn on Aug 21, 2024 16:16:28 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Aug 21, 2024 22:08:54 GMT
It seems that gold is money again. Hope we have ours.
|
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Aug 21, 2024 23:06:41 GMT
The best barometer I have is my own business as I have posted several times, and after an encouraging early summer, business has fallen off the cliff (again) now in late summer. Some of our more established customers seem to be having trouble paying their bills. People are getting testy. Truck brokers call all day long. We're definitely not out of the woods yet. Actually I have never seen it completely dead like this. Strange fast stops and starts. My subjective opinion is that this happened when Kamala came out with the full media support. The economy is absolutely terrified, they have heard her insane communist rantings, and people suspect another stolen election is in the works. FWIW, I ran a service station with an attached mechanical repair business for a long time. It was in a commercial/light industrial area only a few kilometers from the Brisbane CBD. We were very busy most of the time but the ' busy' was interspersed with ' what have we done wrong?/where have all the customers gone?' periods. Disclaimer: It's now thirty years on so my observations are likely irrelevant and we live in interesting times. |
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Aug 21, 2024 23:36:05 GMT
As I’ve said many times before, I post my stock trades here and follow up on the results because I’ve found that a public exposure of my thinking and my prediction results causes me to think better and achieve better results.
I am not advising others on what to do.
This is an update of my results from the start of this “Economy” thread when I began posting specific trades. Prior to that I made only sporadic comments including the suggestion that Cruise line and airline stocks were set to fall dramatically because of COVID just before they crashed.
The approach of buy and hold S&P 500 index funds since the start of the thread has yielded an average of 9.5% per year while an investment in money market funds and CD’s yielded 5% per year.
If you followed my buy/sell calls and held money market funds when out of the market your return from your investment in S&P 500 index funds was 18.5% per year.
If you went short instead of just selling and holding money market funds the return would have been 29% when including reinvestment of dividends.
These calculations are based on going long when the market recently reached the 10% down target.
|
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Aug 22, 2024 2:34:39 GMT
The best barometer I have is my own business as I have posted several times, and after an encouraging early summer, business has fallen off the cliff (again) now in late summer. Some of our more established customers seem to be having trouble paying their bills. People are getting testy. Truck brokers call all day long. We're definitely not out of the woods yet. Actually I have never seen it completely dead like this. Strange fast stops and starts. My subjective opinion is that this happened when Kamala came out with the full media support. The economy is absolutely terrified, they have heard her insane communist rantings, and people suspect another stolen election is in the works. I use my business as a barometer as well. Seafood is a luxury and the first thing people cut out when times get tough. My markets are extremely slow and the orders are much smaller than they have been in previous years. |
|
