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Post by duwayne on Feb 7, 2023 0:56:22 GMT
What I am about to cover in this post and 2 more posts which will follow is not a prediction, but a possibility. The possibility is we might be in for some cool global temperatures ahead. A few years ago there were some reports noting a slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The claim was that certain experts had models which were showing that greenhouse gas warming was causing a slowdown of the AMOC which could tip us into a situation where the circulation would stop and the earth would warm dramatically. They claimed this might occur in the next few decades. Does this make sense? Could a slowdown in the AMOC cause warming? For 15 years on this and the predecessor site I have been discussing the significant role of ocean currents on global temperatures. The key isn’t so much the circulation of surface water. If surface water moves without mixing with subsurface water it doesn’t change surface temperatures. It’s the same water. On the other hand if upwelling and downwelling is involved, there is a significant effect on surface temperatures as cool subsurface water replaces warmer surface water. La Nina is a perfect example of significant cooling from upwelling of cool subsurface water. The AMOC involves upwelling and downwelling. So what is actually happening with the AMOC? More to follow. AMOC continued….. The video below shows the gulfstream's path. Surface water flows north and then the current downwells. The downwelled deep subsurface water then flows south. It cools as it downwells because of the cool surrounding deep water. This is the northern section of the AMOC. Where does this water stream ultimately end up ? 
Logically, there must be upwelling somewhere to maintain a physical water balance in the ocean.
The overall world thermohaline flow of which the gulfstream and the AMOC are a part is depicted below. Note that the warm surface water stream shown in red downwells in 2 places in the North Atlantic as well as in the southern Atlantic just north of Antarctica.  These cool subsurface (blue) streams upwell to the surface in 2 places, a spot in the Indian Ocean south and west of India and an area in the Pacific north of the equator.
The thermohaline currents continually cool the ocean surface (on average, overall) by downwelling surface water and upwelling cooler subsurface water. Various areas in the ocean are affected differently, particularly if they are in an upwelling area or a downwelling area.
The downwelling areas are closer to the polar regions and they draw warmer surface waters like the gulfstream which actually result in an overall warming in the area of the downwelling.
The upwelling areas are closer to the equator and that’s the where the cooling is first focused before dispersing across the ocean surface.
If the themohaline currents are continual, they won’t show on an anomaly map. The warming in certain areas and net cooling overall are normal. But, if the AMOC is slowing as some “experts” have said, maybe we can see the change on the anomaly map.
Which areas would look yellow, which would be blue? That’s next…. |
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 7, 2023 4:53:38 GMT
I have its 18Kw
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Post by acidohm on Feb 7, 2023 5:59:21 GMT
The RAPID team recently released fresh data, I havnt seen a presentation of results yet.
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Post by neilhamp on Feb 7, 2023 7:23:45 GMT
Duwayne,
Following your AMO story with interest.
Looking forward to the next episode
Neil
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 8, 2023 17:32:47 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 8, 2023 21:10:42 GMT
January data are in. ENSO regions are turning as usual. I think that they will remain largely below SC24 ENSO region values ... particularly the large values toward the end. UAH Tropics will follow as they always seem to do. By the end of the solar cycle, the hot tub will not come back as warm as before.  |
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Post by duwayne on Feb 11, 2023 17:32:20 GMT
What I am about to cover in this post and 2 more posts which will follow is not a prediction, but a possibility. The possibility is we might be in for some cool global temperatures ahead. A few years ago there were some reports noting a slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The claim was that certain experts had models which were showing that greenhouse gas warming was causing a slowdown of the AMOC which could tip us into a situation where the circulation would stop and the earth would warm dramatically. They claimed this might occur in the next few decades. Does this make sense? Could a slowdown in the AMOC cause warming? For 15 years on this and the predecessor site I have been discussing the significant role of ocean currents on global temperatures. The key isn’t so much the circulation of surface water. If surface water moves without mixing with subsurface water it doesn’t change surface temperatures. It’s the same water. On the other hand if upwelling and downwelling is involved, there is a significant effect on surface temperatures as cool subsurface water replaces warmer surface water. La Nina is a perfect example of significant cooling from upwelling of cool subsurface water. The AMOC involves upwelling and downwelling. So what is actually happening with the AMOC? More to follow. AMOC continued….. The video below shows the gulfstream's path. Surface water flows north and then the current downwells. The downwelled deep subsurface water then flows south. It cools as it downwells because of the cool surrounding deep water. This is the northern section of the AMOC. Where does this water stream ultimately end up ?
Logically, there must be upwelling somewhere to maintain a physical water balance in the ocean.
The overall world thermohaline flow of which the gulfstream and the AMOC are a part is depicted below. Note that the warm surface water stream shown in red downwells in 2 places in the North Atlantic as well as in the southern Atlantic just north of Antarctica. These cool subsurface (blue) streams upwell to the surface in 2 places, a spot in the Indian Ocean south and west of India and an area in the Pacific north of the equator.
The thermohaline currents continually cool the ocean surface (on average, overall) by downwelling surface water and upwelling cooler subsurface water. Various areas in the ocean are affected differently, particularly if they are in an upwelling area or a downwelling area.
The downwelling areas are closer to the polar regions and they draw warmer surface waters like the gulfstream which actually result in an overall warming in the area of the downwelling.
The upwelling areas are closer to the equator and that’s the where the cooling is first focused before dispersing across the ocean surface.
If the themohaline currents are continual, they won’t show on an anomaly map. The warming in certain areas and net cooling overall are normal. But, if the AMOC is slowing as some “experts” have said, maybe we can see the change on the anomaly map.
Which areas would look yellow, which would be blue? That’s next…. The description of the AMOC above describes how the AMOC cools the overall global ocean temperature average. Thus, a slowdown in the AMOC would cause global warming, but as described above a cooler AMO. That’s not happening. The AMO is on the warm side as is the other AMOC downwell area in the southern Atlantic
A slowing AMOC would mean less cooling (a warm anomaly) in the upwell areas. That’s not happening. The PDO has been very cool over the past 30 years. The western Indian Ocean also has been cool.
The chart below is a recent snapshot, but it is typical of what has been happening on average in recent years.
I also find in the details of the recent IPCC report a conclusion that the AMOC is expected to maintain its strength through the year 2100.
So, I’m not so concerned about the AMO being on the high side. And perhaps it is possible that this means some extra AMOC driven cooling for the earth overall.
The warmer AMO results from a redistribution of ocean surface water which doesn’t have much effect on the overall global temperature. But this redistribution feeds the AMOC which causes cool water upwelling which leads to a cooler global average temperature. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 14, 2023 21:31:43 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 15, 2023 1:31:29 GMT
Me thinks they seriously underestimate the carbon in the oceans. |
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Post by code on Feb 15, 2023 4:55:30 GMT
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Post by ratty on Feb 15, 2023 6:55:43 GMT
Thanks Code; I'll set that to play when I go to bed .....  |
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 15, 2023 13:07:33 GMT
Me thinks they seriously underestimate the carbon in the oceans. What passes for news worthy BS in this country as a replacement for actual investigative reporting and probing inquiry is stupefying. They know their audience. |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 15, 2023 13:53:22 GMT
Me thinks they seriously underestimate the carbon in the oceans. What passes for news worthy BS in this country as a replacement for actual investigative reporting and probing inquiry is stupefying. They know their audience. My personal favorite.  American science at it's best.
European colonization of the Americas resulted in the killing of so many native people that it transformed the environment and caused the Earth’s climate to cool down, new research has found.
Settlers killed off huge numbers of people in conflicts and also by spreading disease, which reduced the indigenous population by 90% in the century following Christopher Columbus’s initial journey to the Americas and Caribbean in 1492.
This “large-scale depopulation” resulted in vast tracts of agricultural land being left untended, researchers say, allowing the land to become overgrown with trees and other new vegetation.
The regrowth soaked up enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to actually cool the planet, with the average temperature dropping by 0.15C in the late 1500s and early 1600s, the study by scientists at University College London found.
“The great dying of the indigenous peoples of the Americas resulted in a human-driven global impact on the Earth system in the two centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution,” wrote the UCL team of Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, Mark Maslin and Simon Lewis.
The drop in temperature during this period is known as the “Little Ice Age”, a time when the River Thames in London would regularly freeze over, snowstorms were common in Portugal and disrupted agriculture caused famines in several European countries.
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Post by Sigurdur on Feb 15, 2023 14:28:58 GMT
What passes for news worthy BS in this country as a replacement for actual investigative reporting and probing inquiry is stupefying. They know their audience. My personal favorite. American science at it's best.
European colonization of the Americas resulted in the killing of so many native people that it transformed the environment and caused the Earth’s climate to cool down, new research has found.
Settlers killed off huge numbers of people in conflicts and also by spreading disease, which reduced the indigenous population by 90% in the century following Christopher Columbus’s initial journey to the Americas and Caribbean in 1492.
This “large-scale depopulation” resulted in vast tracts of agricultural land being left untended, researchers say, allowing the land to become overgrown with trees and other new vegetation.
The regrowth soaked up enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to actually cool the planet, with the average temperature dropping by 0.15C in the late 1500s and early 1600s, the study by scientists at University College London found.
“The great dying of the indigenous peoples of the Americas resulted in a human-driven global impact on the Earth system in the two centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution,” wrote the UCL team of Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, Mark Maslin and Simon Lewis.
The drop in temperature during this period is known as the “Little Ice Age”, a time when the River Thames in London would regularly freeze over, snowstorms were common in Portugal and disrupted agriculture caused famines in several European countries.
So, a little bit of cooling resulted in the same forecast conditions as a little bit of warming. Hmmmmmm. Interesting eh? |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 15, 2023 15:05:29 GMT
My personal favorite. American science at it's best.
European colonization of the Americas resulted in the killing of so many native people that it transformed the environment and caused the Earth’s climate to cool down, new research has found.
Settlers killed off huge numbers of people in conflicts and also by spreading disease, which reduced the indigenous population by 90% in the century following Christopher Columbus’s initial journey to the Americas and Caribbean in 1492.
This “large-scale depopulation” resulted in vast tracts of agricultural land being left untended, researchers say, allowing the land to become overgrown with trees and other new vegetation.
The regrowth soaked up enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to actually cool the planet, with the average temperature dropping by 0.15C in the late 1500s and early 1600s, the study by scientists at University College London found.
“The great dying of the indigenous peoples of the Americas resulted in a human-driven global impact on the Earth system in the two centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution,” wrote the UCL team of Alexander Koch, Chris Brierley, Mark Maslin and Simon Lewis.
The drop in temperature during this period is known as the “Little Ice Age”, a time when the River Thames in London would regularly freeze over, snowstorms were common in Portugal and disrupted agriculture caused famines in several European countries.
So, a little bit of cooling resulted in the same forecast conditions as a little bit of warming. Hmmmmmm. Interesting eh? The saga of a wide-eyed, bushy-tailed undergraduate who astutely noted to his/her professor ... "If too much CO2 can warm the planet ... can too little CO2 cool the planet? AND a grant was born.  |
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American science at it's best.
