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Post by nonentropic on Jan 17, 2022 6:52:12 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 17, 2022 17:34:10 GMT
Early estimates indicate this had a VEI of at least 4. I believe Krakatoa was a 6. Tambora which led to the Year Without A Summer was a 7. Pinatubo in 1991 was a 6. So it would stand to reason if this ends up being a 5 it should have at least some cooling effect on the climate. We will see. Warmist's will try to downplay it, Denialist's will overestimate it. We will wait and see how this effects Tropospheric temperatures over on Dr. Roy Spencer's site. Some interesting observations regarding a huge increase in lightening strikes in the runup to the Hunga-Tonga explosion. Operational forces that we seemingly cannot explain? Maybe not as simple as hot magma hitting cold water. LIGHTNING STRIKES American meteorologist, Chris Vagasky, studied lightning around the volcano and found it increasing to about 30,000 strikes in the days leading up to the eruption. On the day of the eruption, he detected 400,000 lightning events in just three hours, which comes down to 100 lightning events per second. That compared with 8,000 strikes per hour during the Anak Krakatau eruption in 2018, caused part of the crater to collapse into the Sunda Strait and send a tsunami crashing into western Java, which killed hundreds of people. Cas said it is difficult to predict follow-up activity and that the volcano's vents could continue to release gases and other material for weeks or months. www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/scientists-struggle-monitor-tonga-volcano-after-massive-eruption-2022-01-17/OTHER OBSERVATIONS His team found evidence of two previous mega-eruptions occurring on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in AD 1100 and AD 200, suggesting they occur roughly once every 1000 years. From the article: www.newscientist.com/article/2304822-volcano-eruption-in-tonga-was-a-once-in-a-millennium-event/ |
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Post by ratty on Jan 18, 2022 2:16:32 GMT
Interesting satellite story on the Russ George site. Russ seems to be one of high priests of the climate cult? |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2022 2:29:14 GMT
Interesting satellite story on the Russ George site. Russ seems to be one of high priests of the climate cult? Must have missed the Sat story ... but I like his quote. Never attribute to conspiracy that which is adequately explained by stupidity. - R. George  |
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Post by nonentropic on Jan 18, 2022 4:13:00 GMT
Ratty I think Russ's solution is valid but for more specific uses.
The CO2 imbalance brought about by an acceleration of the burning of fossil fuels is real but we can use our brains to target other needs.
I believe that the massive extraction of biomass from the oceans and onto land via say fishing etc has depleted the natural food chain of Fe, which would normally go through the food chain and ultimately to the future organic rich shale's.
The Krill that are strip mined from the Southern Oceans by way of example, are red because of Fe the fish are red blooded due to Fe normally this process of moving to the future shale's is replenished by Volcano's and wind blow Fe rich particles from land, the balance has been perturbed.
The blessing of a brain allows us to close that gap. In literature I have read that a single tonne of FE will generate 75,000Tonnes of biomass this would not be expensive and it would not change the rulers of the world so its of the table. (my view)
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2022 5:53:09 GMT
Ratty I think Russ's solution is valid but for more specific uses. The CO2 imbalance brought about by an acceleration of the burning of fossil fuels is real but we can use our brains to target other needs. I believe that the massive extraction of biomass from the oceans and onto land via say fishing etc has depleted the natural food chain of Fe, which would normally go through the food chain and ultimately to the future organic rich shale's. The Krill that are strip mined from the Southern Oceans by way of example, are red because of Fe the fish are red blooded due to Fe normally this process of moving to the future shale's is replenished by Volcano's and wind blow Fe rich particles from land, the balance has been perturbed. The blessing of a brain allows us to close that gap. In literature I have read that a single tonne of FE will generate 75,000Tonnes of biomass this would not be expensive and it would not change the rulers of the world so its of the table. (my view) I believe I've heard that argument before somewhere. Price it out for Jacinda. She may fancy a go at savior. And if it produces a real positive result at a realistic price, then we are all ahead. |
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 18, 2022 14:44:39 GMT
Ash from the Tonga volcano reaches a record of 24 miles high. That is over 126,000 ft . Yet some scientists were very quick to downplay the cooling effect this may have on our planet citing it is only around 2% of the sulfur dioxide that Pinatubo released. Call me skeptical but only a few days out how do they know how much sulfur dioxide was released and since it was a record height it stands to reason that a smaller amount of sulfur dioxide would have a greater effect and linger longer in the atmosphere reflecting more sunlight over a longer period of time. So my question to the brain trust on these boards would be how accurate are these satellites at measuring the amount of sulfur dioxide flung into our atmosphere in an explosive event? Because my B.S. detector is going off... www.space.com/tonga-volcano-eruption-wont-cool-climate |
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 18, 2022 14:51:30 GMT
On a quick follow up to this entire sulfur dioxide thing. From the same article that claims not nearly enough sulfur dioxide was released to alter the climate they claim that a record amount of sulfur dioxide was measured over the Pacific? WTF? Which is it? Not enough or a record?
"The plume has already spread over Australia, more than 2,500 miles (4,000km) to the west of Tonga, producing record concentrations of sulfur dioxide above the Pacific Ocean, New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), said on Twitter on Monday (Jan. 17). Sulfur dioxide is potentially harmful to human health, causing irritation of the respiratory tract and worsening conditions such as asthma. The gas can also react with water in the atmosphere and cause acid rains that harm vegetation."
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Post by Sigurdur on Jan 18, 2022 15:11:33 GMT
Ash from the Tonga volcano reaches a record of 24 miles high. That is over 126,000 ft . Yet some scientists were very quick to downplay the cooling effect this may have on our planet citing it is only around 2% of the sulfur dioxide that Pinatubo released. Call me skeptical but only a few days out how do they know how much sulfur dioxide was released and since it was a record height it stands to reason that a smaller amount of sulfur dioxide would have a greater effect and linger longer in the atmosphere reflecting more sunlight over a longer period of time. So my question to the brain trust on these boards would be how accurate are these satellites at measuring the amount of sulfur dioxide flung into our atmosphere in an explosive event? Because my B.S. detector is going off... www.space.com/tonga-volcano-eruption-wont-cool-climateNO one knows. When Gavin Schmidt tweeted Tonga will have no effect on temperatures, my BS meter went up. |
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 18, 2022 16:25:25 GMT
Ash from the Tonga volcano reaches a record of 24 miles high. That is over 126,000 ft . Yet some scientists were very quick to downplay the cooling effect this may have on our planet citing it is only around 2% of the sulfur dioxide that Pinatubo released. Call me skeptical but only a few days out how do they know how much sulfur dioxide was released and since it was a record height it stands to reason that a smaller amount of sulfur dioxide would have a greater effect and linger longer in the atmosphere reflecting more sunlight over a longer period of time. So my question to the brain trust on these boards would be how accurate are these satellites at measuring the amount of sulfur dioxide flung into our atmosphere in an explosive event? Because my B.S. detector is going off... www.space.com/tonga-volcano-eruption-wont-cool-climateNO one knows. When Gavin Schmidt tweeted Tonga will have no effect on temperatures, my BS meter went up. Absolutely. It was a long time ago but I don't remember anyone forecasting a one degree F drop in the global temp when Pinatubo erupted. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2022 17:33:49 GMT
There are data to compare. Plots of UAH lower troposphere temperatures (global & tropics) against ENSO (Nino3) and Sunspots clearly show the effects of Pinatubo in June of 1991. It shows distinctly because it happened at the start of a large post-cycle El Nino following the peak of SC22. IN ALL OTHER CASES UAH temperature anomalies show positive increases that slightly lag El Nino. Note 1983, 1987, 1998, 2009, 2015 & 2019. Note how different 1991 is. Instead of increasing, UAH temps decline by about 0.6C (-0.6C), and the negative anomalies last for about 7 months (July, 1991 to January, 1992). The Tropics monthly anomalies progress from +0.91C in June, 1991 to a minimum of -0.47C in November, 1991 ... a decline of -1.38C over 5 mths. June, 1991 to July, 1991 dropped by -1.02C. This is of course for the tropics Worldwide. Global anomalies declined -0.78C from June to September (3 Mths). The Hunga Tonga explosion is supposedly smaller than Pinatubo and is occurring during a La Nina. The differences should be interesting.  |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jan 18, 2022 20:12:10 GMT
Interesting point comparing the ENSO state when each of the eruptions occur. Am i wrong to think that all these folks predicating climate impacts of the eruption are doing so based on consideration of only a few variables (SO2, magnitude), when there are countless variables that may affect the explosion's impact on climate?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2022 22:32:09 GMT
Interesting point comparing the ENSO state when each of the eruptions occur. Am i wrong to think that all these folks predicating climate impacts of the eruption are doing so based on consideration of only a few variables (SO2, magnitude), when there are countless variables that may affect the explosion's impact on climate? No, I don't think you're wrong. Honest scientists will no doubt be conducting honest research. On the other side, I fully expect to hear arguments blaming Hunga Tonga as a reason that global warming is retarded. |
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Post by ratty on Jan 19, 2022 0:18:24 GMT
Ratty I think Russ's solution is valid but for more specific uses. The CO2 imbalance brought about by an acceleration of the burning of fossil fuels is real but we can use our brains to target other needs. I believe that the massive extraction of biomass from the oceans and onto land via say fishing etc has depleted the natural food chain of Fe, which would normally go through the food chain and ultimately to the future organic rich shale's. The Krill that are strip mined from the Southern Oceans by way of example, are red because of Fe the fish are red blooded due to Fe normally this process of moving to the future shale's is replenished by Volcano's and wind blow Fe rich particles from land, the balance has been perturbed. The blessing of a brain allows us to close that gap. In literature I have read that a single tonne of FE will generate 75,000Tonnes of biomass this would not be expensive and it would not change the rulers of the world so its of the table. (my view) I believe I've heard that argument before somewhere. Price it out for Jacinda. She may fancy a go at savior. And if it produces a real positive result at a realistic price, then we are all ahead. Just on CO2, I don't see an imbalance, just an increase of a well-mixed gas? Be gentle: Remember ....  |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 2, 2022 19:12:21 GMT
UAH global lower troposphere temp anomaly for January 2022 is in at +0.03 (down from +0,21 in December, which was up from +0.08 in November). So, bouncing around. May be a little early to see much of Hunga Tonga in this. Pinatubo erupted 6/12/91 and the UAH June '91 global anomaly was up 0.19 for all of June in an El Nino year. July '91 declined 0.17 globally and 0.30 for the tropics. Hunga Tonga went off 1/14/22 during a La Nina. So the global decline of 0.18 may be background noise. I expect the tropics anomaly to drop into negative territory for January '22. By February, we may be able to discern some of the effect, although still with a background of La Nina.
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