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Post by code on Jul 12, 2021 2:16:05 GMT
Western North American extreme heat virtually impossible without human-caused climate change
Weather patterns are clearly all over the place with many odd permutations observed in the last few years. Some create warm, some create cold and overall at the moment,they seem roughly equal. Thing is, what global data do we really have from the last time the sun had such little activity? Anecdotal records imply similar events occurring to some degree in the past, but we are really the first people able to observe all these changes globally and be aware of the overall picture. Certainly since I first came here, there's been an anticipation of future events and discussions on what may be. Overall, suggestions made here have in time rung more true and has greater foresight then attempts by others to explain events because they're happening rather then anticipating them. And that's the crux of it for me. Having some understanding and predicting trumps believing and explaining in real time. As far as I can tell, sciences best effort revolves around arctic amplification upsetting pressure systems, because they believe the Arctic is failing outside of natural fluctuations. Those who feel solar activity affects pressure systems have been saying as such for some time, as has often been discussed here. Localised warm is always due to upset pressure distribution, as is localised cold. That is part of it too, these events are always localised. If whole hemispheres start to display anomalies one way or the other in their entirety that'd be more telling, a real strange attractor shift. Really, many of us have been waiting for right about now. It's possible that the next few months will clarify many points for us. I've learnt so much from all you folks and look forward to observing future events with you. Am I convinced of the study? Yeah, it probably is valid, but I feel sad I am accepting it just because I don't understand it.
I will say Theo has done a darn fine job of predicting the future, as I can only predict the weather as it currently is right now, and what looks to be à La Niña is on tap for this year just as he said it would years ago. So, before Winter hits this year I am investing in some insulation to the bottom of my home. The bottom of my house should be R-30, some parts have R-19, and some don't have anything, that being mostly the master bedroom which can be 5-10 degrees colder than the rest of the house.
I put an ad up on Craigslist and had two fellows who work Monday -Friday for an insulation company show up still wearing their company uniforms, they work for themselves on the weekend when they can and told me they have an understanding boss who is OK with them working on their own time, for themselves, I think that is enlightened. They proved they really know what they are doing, measured me up, then showed me plenty of photos of jobs they have done and gave me a bunch of options.
Now I have a doable bid from someone who knows how to do the work, I'm debating counter bidding lower, (thoughts? Should I counter?) The plan is to do the whole thing R-30 properly even cover it all up with a full vapor barrier and they said they would even fill up all the little cracks and holes down there. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 12, 2021 2:20:08 GMT
Like the new avatar Code.  |
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 12, 2021 3:19:39 GMT
Doug and Blus two things the Hawaiian location is fine volcanoes are episodic and there is no evidence in the data, further the distal location isolates it from a lot of hot spots so prior mixing probably very good.
Regarding the lack of a signal from Covid 19 shut down we humans are responsible for just 3% of the CO2 "flux" through the system so even a 20% fall would be 0.6% reduction in the flux overall I would suggest below errors and resolution. I think it was a lot less than that 20%.
I am trying to avoid easy targets for the CAGW police.
Is the CO2 peak in the NH warm period if so then it the oceans in the south doing the vacuuming up work the SH summer?
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 12, 2021 3:33:52 GMT
Code: Only bicker on price if you feel it is substantially too high.
One thing I have learned
Accept the price. Compliment them, saying for that price you expect an exceptional product when completed.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 12, 2021 6:11:05 GMT
Weather patterns are clearly all over the place with many odd permutations observed in the last few years. Some create warm, some create cold and overall at the moment,they seem roughly equal. Thing is, what global data do we really have from the last time the sun had such little activity? Anecdotal records imply similar events occurring to some degree in the past, but we are really the first people able to observe all these changes globally and be aware of the overall picture. Certainly since I first came here, there's been an anticipation of future events and discussions on what may be. Overall, suggestions made here have in time rung more true and has greater foresight then attempts by others to explain events because they're happening rather then anticipating them. And that's the crux of it for me. Having some understanding and predicting trumps believing and explaining in real time. As far as I can tell, sciences best effort revolves around arctic amplification upsetting pressure systems, because they believe the Arctic is failing outside of natural fluctuations. Those who feel solar activity affects pressure systems have been saying as such for some time, as has often been discussed here. Localised warm is always due to upset pressure distribution, as is localised cold. That is part of it too, these events are always localised. If whole hemispheres start to display anomalies one way or the other in their entirety that'd be more telling, a real strange attractor shift. Really, many of us have been waiting for right about now. It's possible that the next few months will clarify many points for us. I've learnt so much from all you folks and look forward to observing future events with you. Am I convinced of the study? Yeah, it probably is valid, but I feel sad I am accepting it just because I don't understand it.
I will say Theo has done a darn fine job of predicting the future, as I can only predict the weather as it currently is right now, and what looks to be à La Niña is on tap for this year just as he said it would years ago. So, before Winter hits this year I am investing in some insulation to the bottom of my home. The bottom of my house should be R-30, some parts have R-19, and some don't have anything, that being mostly the master bedroom which can be 5-10 degrees colder than the rest of the house.
I put an ad up on Craigslist and had two fellows who work Monday -Friday for an insulation company show up still wearing their company uniforms, they work for themselves on the weekend when they can and told me they have an understanding boss who is OK with them working on their own time, for themselves, I think that is enlightened. They proved they really know what they are doing, measured me up, then showed me plenty of photos of jobs they have done and gave me a bunch of options.
Now I have a doable bid from someone who knows how to do the work, I'm debating counter bidding lower, (thoughts? Should I counter?) The plan is to do the whole thing R-30 properly even cover it all up with a full vapor barrier and they said they would even fill up all the little cracks and holes down there. We may well see at lot of weather outside of it's normal bounds ... and in fact it seems we are. Winter cold outbreaks are expected, but have been rather rare over the last few decades except for 2009-11. Although I wasn't paying great attention, I remember the 70s-80s. I remember news on the blizzards in the upper Mid-West and NE US. I remember when I was in Alaska in the 80s, when one winter in Anchorage it was warmer than Miami. Now we see continent-wide cold penetrations to the Gulf in the US and to N. Africa in Europe. Not only in winter ... but now in summer as well. If normals since SC 21 mean anything, this ain't them. And now a second solar cycle perhaps as low as SC24, which we have not seen since the Dalton Minimum, with some records of what happened back then. And no logical arguments with experimental results from the CO2 crowd to explain the mechanisms. And yet they want to cut off cheap heat from those who will need it if we replicate the weather of those decades. And of course, they will not want to be blamed if their policies don't work out well. Theology gone bad so to speak. But to be blunt, they should be ... and will be blamed for dereliction of duty, if not high treason. And they will deserve it. |
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Post by douglavers on Jul 12, 2021 6:24:33 GMT
[[Doug and Blus two things the Hawaiian location is fine volcanoes are episodic and there is no evidence in the data, further the distal location isolates it from a lot of hot spots so prior mixing probably very good.
Regarding the lack of a signal from Covid 19 shut down we humans are responsible for just 3% of the CO2 "flux" through the system so even a 20% fall would be 0.6% reduction in the flux overall I would suggest below errors and resolution. I think it was a lot less than that 20%.]]
The figure of 10-20% came from several sources. I think one of them was the East Anglia climate people, with 17%. I have seen other figures within the range.
Anyhow, 3% of 420ppm is about 12ppm, so a 10% reduction would be easily visible - suggesting that human emissions are much lower than 3% of the total.
I was always under the impression that the main contributer to the saw-tooth was the Northern Fir Forests which stretch all the way across three continents.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 12, 2021 8:05:10 GMT
not so Doug the 20% or whatever was on the 3% of the global flux so 0.6% of the gross flux for those impacted months.
If all fossil fuels were to stop being used we would see a slide down from the nominal 415ppm gradually to something closer to 300ppm arguably over a century or longer all else being equal.
this is good news we are not the only show in town when it comes to CO2 emissions.
From what I have read if we were to continue to emit at the current level and all else was the same I think the equilibrium level would be something like 540ppm no great problem.
That is also an opinion.
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 12, 2021 12:22:59 GMT
A post from Dr. Judith Curry: "How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?" judithcurry.com/2021/07/11/5-minutes/#more-27715 |
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Post by ratty on Jul 12, 2021 12:33:41 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 13, 2021 12:36:37 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 13, 2021 17:49:05 GMT
Could it be that they have misidentified the brown stuff on their thumbs? |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 13, 2021 19:50:28 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 14, 2021 0:51:46 GMT
And that is about as certain as we are likely to get this side of fairy tales and a Hari Krishna love fest. But what is a few trillion among maniacs? |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 30, 2021 2:35:40 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Aug 14, 2021 17:06:03 GMT
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