2024 Hurricane Season

[missouriboy]

"THE MOUSE MIGHT DROWN"

www.zerohedge.com/markets/disney-parks-direct-path-hurricane-milton-face-200-million-hit

[glennkoks]

My gut hunch is Florida dodged a bullet. It weakened substantially before landfall and was further south in a less populated area. Yes it will be catastrophic, but not biblical. Insurance companies are having a bad year. Beryl, Helene and now Milton were expensive in a world where everything costs more.

[missouriboy]

Oct 10, 2024 1:30:36 GMT glennkoks said:

My gut hunch is Florida dodged a bullet. It weakened substantially before landfall and was further south in a less populated area. Yes it will be catastrophic, but not biblical. Insurance companies are having a bad year. Beryl, Helene and now Milton were expensive in a world where everything costs more.

This came to mind.  but all things are relative.  A similar set of two storm-flood events with similar placement and timing come to mind from several years ago.  Can't remember the details.  Somebody should explore that Madden Julian oscillation index connection that Joe brought up.  At the beginning of its deep dive to "Beyond SC25" our sun is unloading.  Timing and location are everything. 

                                                                                                                 BEYOND SC25 can become a new theme.  The residents of Spaceship Earth are set to go places that their ancestors had not seen in 3000

                                                                                                                 Years?  The "Solar Reset" envisioned by Zharkova could have similar effects as those believed to have occurred in the Bronze Age.   

       The Bronze Age Collapse (also known as Late Bronze Age Collapse) is a modern-day term referring to the decline and fall of major Mediterranean civilizations during the 13th-12th centuries BCE. The precise cause of the Bronze Age Collapse has been debated by scholars for over a century as well as the date it probably began and when it ended but no consensus has been reached. What is clearly known is that, between c. 1250 - c. 1150 BCE, major cities were destroyed, whole civilizations fell, diplomatic and trade relations were severed, writing systems vanished, and there was widespread devastation and death on a scale never experienced before.

The primary causes advanced for the Bronze Age Collapse are:

Natural Catastrophes (earthquakes)
Climate Change (which caused drought and famine)
Internal Rebellions (class wars)
Invasions (primarily by the Sea Peoples)
Disruption of Trade Relations/Systems Collapse (political instability)

www.worldhistory.org/Bronze_Age_Collapse/

[duwayne]

[missouriboy]

"Facts" are NOT measurements any more in the "Woke" Bureaucracy.  They are political statements it seems.  Certain parts of the government cannot be trusted to give you "just the facts mamn.

This Nation cannot live for long half slave and half free.  And you know which ones I'm talking about  Parts of the government need to be cleaned out down to the bone ... or below.  Complete amputation.   As Lincoln said ... " There are too many pigs for the teats".  And they are malignant ... and must be removed or the nation will starve.  Let them go their own way and see if they can feed themselves.  Odds anyone?  Incestrous filter feeders cannot survive on their their own once their host is gone. 

[phydeaux2363]

In addition to Roy Spencer, Willis Eschenbach had a lot to say about this NHC reported wind compared to actual surface measurements. Tony Heller has touched on it as well. It certainly seems like a thing, and I think it will get more scrutiny in the future. That said, with all the climate doom hype that accompanies every hurricane these days, I doubt we will get an answer.

As for the dramatic decrease in Milton's intensity in the last 12 hours before landfall, Ryan Maue was the only commentator I follow who saw that coming. So whilst Milton was overhyped (and Helene's winds may have been as well) Mr. Glenn is correct about insurance costs. Premiums almost doubled for those of us immediately on the coast this year. I anticipate the same for next year. What I need to look at, though, is actual combined ratios for the major insurers who write on the coasts. More coastal development certainly makes losses higher when a storm hits. But the corollary to that is that the same development generates substantially more in premiums, which are based in large part on the value insured. Also, a significant portion of the damage from Helene will be from the floods in the Appalachians. I wonder if those folks bought flood insurance excess of the $250,000 mandated by FEMA. If not, the hit on private insurers from Helene might be mitigated. This needs more investigation. It is not unlike insurers to raise premiums after major losses, but when you look behind the curtain, the loss ratios, like the hurricanes themselves, are overhyped.

[ratty]

Oct 10, 2024 20:55:34 GMT phydeaux2363 said:

In addition to Roy Spencer, Willis Eschenbach had a lot to say about this NHC reported wind compared to actual surface measurements. Tony Heller has touched on it as well. It certainly seems like a thing, and I think it will get more scrutiny in the future. That said, with all the climate doom hype that accompanies every hurricane these days, I doubt we will get an answer.

As for the dramatic decrease in Milton's intensity in the last 12 hours before landfall, Ryan Maue was the only commentator I follow who saw that coming. So whilst Milton was overhyped (and Helene's winds may have been as well) Mr. Glenn is correct about insurance costs. Premiums almost doubled for those of us immediately on the coast this year. I anticipate the same for next year. What I need to look at, though, is actual combined ratios for the major insurers who write on the coasts. More coastal development certainly makes losses higher when a storm hits. But the corollary to that is that the same development generates substantially more in premiums, which are based in large part on the value insured. Also, a significant portion of the damage from Helene will be from the floods in the Appalachians. I wonder if those folks bought flood insurance excess of the $250,000 mandated by FEMA. If not, the hit on private insurers from Helene might be mitigated. This needs more investigation. It is not unlike insurers to raise premiums after major losses, but when you look behind the curtain, the loss ratios, like the hurricanes themselves, are overhyped.

Death, taxes .... and insurance premiums?

[glennkoks]

Sigurdur, turned me onto Eric Snodgrass on Youtube and ag-wx.com a couple of years ago. Eric was pointing out that multiple model runs were weakening Milton due to increased shear 24 hours prior to landfall and leaving an exposed SE eye wall. I don't think the models handled this weakening well just prior to landfall. In addition it came in south of Tampa in a much less populated area so damage was less.

I will give credit where credit is due. The models performed excellently with the track of most Hurricanes this year with the exception of Beryl. Hurricane forecasting has advanced exponentially over the last 30 years.

With that being said they are still piss poor at forecasting intensity fluctuations. None of the models predicted a cat 5 storm and none of them forecasted the dramatic weakening as it neared the coast.

[gridley]

Oct 10, 2024 20:45:50 GMT missouriboy said:

 Let them go their own way and see if they can feed themselves.  Odds anyone?  Incestrous filter feeders cannot survive on their their own once their host is gone. 

Ah, but that's one reason for the illegal immigrants. Slave labor to work the fields.

[ratty]

Research from India, published June 2024 ....

Effects of Solar Variability on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract
The current study explores the relationship between solar variability and tropical cyclone (TC) activity using sunspot number (SSN) and TC best-track data as respective proxies. We have considered six regions of the globe, for example, EP: Eastern Pacific, NA: North Atlantic, NI: North Indian, SI: South Indian, SP: South Pacific, and WP: Western Pacific. The results show strong anti-correlation between yearly TC activity and yearly SSN while considering their 11-year moving averages. This behavior is consistent for TC counts as well as accumulated cyclone energy. However, this is true only for the North Atlantic region. Overall, when we consider all regions together, more TCs (in terms of counts) are observed during lower solar activity periods (SSN < 50) as compared to higher solar activity conditions (SSN > 100). However, the yearly rates remain more or less similar. On the other hand, extreme TC events with a maximum wind speed of 137 knots and higher (category 5) are most likely to occur during the declining phase of a solar cycle and least likely to occur during the ascending phase or the maximum phase. Although solar activity levels are similar during the declining and ascending phases, the yearly occurrence rate is nearly double in the declining phase (1.123) as compared to that in the ascending phase (0.625).

Key Points

. Tropical cyclones (TCs) occurrences and solar activity show strong anti-correlation in the North Atlantic sector
. Extreme TCs are most likely to occur during the declining phase of a solar cycle and least likely to occur during the maximum phase
. The yearly occurrence rate of extreme TCs is nearly double in the declining phase of a solar cycle as compared to that in the ascending phase

Etc ...

[duwayne]

Oct 10, 2024 20:55:34 GMT phydeaux2363 said:

In addition to Roy Spencer, Willis Eschenbach had a lot to say about this NHC reported wind compared to actual surface measurements. Tony Heller has touched on it as well. It certainly seems like a thing, and I think it will get more scrutiny in the future. That said, with all the climate doom hype that accompanies every hurricane these days, I doubt we will get an answer.

As for the dramatic decrease in Milton's intensity in the last 12 hours before landfall, Ryan Maue was the only commentator I follow who saw that coming. So whilst Milton was overhyped (and Helene's winds may have been as well) Mr. Glenn is correct about insurance costs. Premiums almost doubled for those of us immediately on the coast this year. I anticipate the same for next year. What I need to look at, though, is actual combined ratios for the major insurers who write on the coasts. More coastal development certainly makes losses higher when a storm hits. But the corollary to that is that the same development generates substantially more in premiums, which are based in large part on the value insured. Also, a significant portion of the damage from Helene will be from the floods in the Appalachians. I wonder if those folks bought flood insurance excess of the $250,000 mandated by FEMA. If not, the hit on private insurers from Helene might be mitigated. This needs more investigation. It is not unlike insurers to raise premiums after major losses, but when you look behind the curtain, the loss ratios, like the hurricanes themselves, are overhyped.

My brother's ranch house near Ocala Florida, 10 miles away from the Gulf Coast, is valued on Zillow at $1.3 million.  The insurance is $48,500 per year.

[ratty]

Video showing Florida governor Ron DeSantis discussing Milton and its predecessors...

[missouriboy]

Don't forget to invite them to your cocktail party.

x.com/i/status/1844296214096834827

[ratty]

A discussion of the causes of the recent severe flooding in North Carolina from Dr Roy Spencer ...

NC Floods, CA Drought, and The Role of Randomness

...
Like all severe weather events, a superposition of several contributing factors are necessary to make an event “severe”, such as those that led to the NC floods. In that case, a strong hurricane combined with steering currents that would carry the hurricane on a track that would produce a maximum amount of orographic uplift on the east side of the Smoky Mountains was necessary in order to produce the widespread 12-20 inch rainfall amounts, and the steering currents had to be so strong that the hurricane would penetrate far inland with little weakening.

Again, all severe weather events represent the somewhat random combining of amplifying components: In the case of Hurricane Helene, they produced the unlucky massive flooding result that the region had not seen in hundreds of years.

Etc ...