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Post by glennkoks on Jul 9, 2024 14:52:18 GMT
It doesn't compare, but we are getting the wet edge of a southward dip in the jet stream, First 7 days of July, 9 inches of rain, 9 times the weekly normal. No complaints. We are on high ground ... and the plants are dancing Same and "singing in the rain". The cone flower clumps are expanding with gusto. We are definitely getting the up-latitude side of your rain Glenn. I remember a similar pattern that ended the drought in 2012. Same general location in the solar cycle ... but no drought this year though.
 That's great. We recorded about 7-8 inches during the storm. Which is perfect to keep us from going into drought this summer! I'm hoping Beryl was enough to keep semi-permanent high pressure camped over our region this summer like we did last year in the summer from hell! |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 9, 2024 15:21:43 GMT
Glad to hear you made it through another one, Mr. Glen. Having the power out really sucks, especially in July. Does the window unit keep a room cool enough for you to get some relief? I agree on the whole house generator. Because we live on the beach we scurry out of town like a rat (no offense intended Mr. Rat) when a hurricane approaches. I do keep a gas chain saw in the shed, though. Gets the driveway cleared, and nearby streets if needed. Keep cool, brother, and let's hope this is the only GOM storm this year.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 9, 2024 17:54:37 GMT
Raining like crazy. Definitely over 10+ inches since July 2. Ten-plus times our average. Watching my little urban drainage fill its flood plain. Goes up fast. Goes down fast. The house sits a good 5 feet above that. The whole neighborhood will go before I do. 
If you have the elevation for it, preferably on a sloping lot, a deep ground-insulated dugout (with various refinements) gives a lot of protection and heat/cold relief. The old folks knew that ... and farmsteads all had underground storage caves for canned food. The man cave is a step up in refineable possibilities.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 9, 2024 19:26:09 GMT
Since it is hurricane season here is a new timeseries I picked up from CSU that includes ACE values for the Atlantic and the NE & NW Pacific. Since ~1980 the NE Pacific has been high when the Atlantic is low, and vice versa. We will see if that continues this year. Chart 2 shows the correlation of Atlantic ACE values with the AMO.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 9, 2024 22:24:05 GMT
Since it is hurricane season here is a new timeseries I picked up from CSU that includes ACE values for the Atlantic and the NE & NW Pacific. Since ~1980 the NE Pacific has been high when the Atlantic is low, and vice versa. We will see if that continues this year. Chart 2 shows the correlation of Atlantic ACE values with the AMO.
Dr. Ryan Maue and I have discussed this on X, and he confirms that this pattern has held for decades. His take is Eastern Pacific storms have their genesis in Atlantic Basin waves that don't develop in the Atlantic, but do in the Pacific after they cross Central America. If they develop in the Atlantic Basin (and we are told it will be a 2005 like Atlantic season) there will be few waves that make it to the Eastern Pacific to develop. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 13, 2024 23:38:16 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 14, 2024 22:38:41 GMT
Lot's and lot's of blame to go around. Houston and Texas in general has seen exponential growth over the last several decades and the grid has been stressed. In 1995 we de-regulated the electricity market and it has been a mixed bag. Usually deregulation is a good thing and brings about lower rates. In the case of Texas there was a lot of crony capitalism and in many cases redundancies and preparation for emergency events took a back seat to profits. The largest power distribution company in Houston is Centerpoint energy. They have done a woefully inadequate job of recovering for Beryl and I am sure heads will roll. Bottom line is Texas needs a long term plan to deal with population growth, a stressed grid and new generation plants. One that guarantees maintenance and emergency response.
With that being said the Houston area is a hurricane magnet. The worst national disaster in our nations history happened in 1900 in Galveston, just south of Houston. It's not if but when. It may happen again this year.
Beryl was a surprise storm that was strengthening just prior to landfall. It also hit just SW of the area sending the worst quadrant into the city. Most people here think the storm was on the verge of being a Cat 2 on landfall. When a strengthening hurricane makes landfall in Texas there is going to be damage. It takes time for the crews to get out and repair the damage. Living here you take that risk. Have a generator and be prepared.
I have said this many times but if you rely on a bureaucrat to protect you there is a high likihood you are going to die. That covers the gambit from self defense, home protection and storms. Rely on yourself not the government. Which is why I am a staunch believer in the Second Amendment.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 18, 2024 17:25:23 GMT
Glad to hear you made it through another one, Mr. Glen. Having the power out really sucks, especially in July. Does the window unit keep a room cool enough for you to get some relief? I agree on the whole house generator. Because we live on the beach we scurry out of town like a rat (no offense intended Mr. Rat) when a hurricane approaches. I do keep a gas chain saw in the shed, though. Gets the driveway cleared, and nearby streets if needed. Keep cool, brother, and let's hope this is the only GOM storm this year. Yes a window unit keeps my bedroom cool. But the rest of the house is a sauna. But a good night sleep is great considering the days and days of work clearing my yard and cleaning up! |
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Post by acidohm on Jul 23, 2024 4:49:52 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Sept 3, 2024 20:38:16 GMT
From May 23, 2024.....
"NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season."
As of September 3, 2024......
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 4, 2024 13:59:01 GMT
Time to revisit that conversation Mr Phy. A cold "bubble" seems to have dropped into the model input mix (from points unknown) ... and "the settled science" seems to have absolutely exploded. Dr Maue is enough of a scientist to grab "the new reality" and morph it into a functional thesis from which we will learn (and make a living at the same time). Dr Elmer Fudd McMann will run for the protection of the mass-mob-psychopaths and try to pretend that he was misunderstood. He wasn't ... but he'll never admit he was wrong. I feel bad for using Elmer to compare. Elmer was a likeable character.
***********************************************
Oceanus: What is so concerning now?
Le Bras: Since the late 1990s, the gyre has been stuck in this phase of collecting freshwater and not releasing it. It has been about 20 years now since we've seen a flip in the cycle that used to happen every 5-10 years. From 2003 to 2018, we have seen a 40% growth in freshwater in the gyre relative to the climatology in the 1970s.
We don't think this has ever happened before. We have an unprecedented amount of freshwater up there. We are not sure what is going to happen if and when this freshwater is released to the rest of the ocean. A sudden release of freshwater could shut down the Atlantic’s large-scale circulation that stabilizes our climate. This is because the Arctic freshwater would be lighter than most of the water in the subpolar North Atlantic and float atop it like oil over water. This in turn would stop or at least slow down deep-water formation which is necessary for this circulation system to overturn. ***********************************************
Look at the visual correlation with the historical ACE values. The warm end of the forecasted 2024 hurricane season just got "chopped off"? Was the last few years of the AMO a downright fraud? Or just Mother Nature playing with us. "Something cold" is gonna happen ... and we are in just the place where we might expect it.
Hold onto your butts! We got a potential World War in the field ... an economy fixing to blow ... at least one serious clown running for president ... a population with elements displaying batshit crazy tendencies ... and a "climate" that is threatening to go bizzerk. Other than that ... we are in great shape ... and this is just a science fiction novel.
Since it is hurricane season here is a new timeseries I picked up from CSU that includes ACE values for the Atlantic and the NE & NW Pacific. Since ~1980 the NE Pacific has been high when the Atlantic is low, and vice versa. We will see if that continues this year. Chart 2 shows the correlation of Atlantic ACE values with the AMO.
ti Dr. Ryan Maue and I have discussed this on X, and he confirms that this pattern has held for decades. His take is Eastern Pacific storms have their genesis in Atlantic Basin waves that don't develop in the Atlantic, but do in the Pacific after they cross Central America. If they develop in the Atlantic Basin (and we are told it will be a 2005 like Atlantic season) there will be few waves that make it to the Eastern Pacific to develop. |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Sept 5, 2024 21:40:02 GMT
Time to revisit that conversation Mr Phy. A cold "bubble" seems to have dropped into the model input mix (from points unknown) ... and "the settled science" seems to have absolutely exploded. Dr Maue is enough of a scientist to grab "the new reality" and morph it into a functional thesis from which we will learn (and make a living at the same time). Dr Elmer Fudd McMann will run for the protection of the mass-mob-psychopaths and try to pretend that he was misunderstood. He wasn't ... but he'll never admit he was wrong. I feel bad for using Elmer to compare. Elmer was a likeable character.
***********************************************
Oceanus: What is so concerning now?
Le Bras: Since the late 1990s, the gyre has been stuck in this phase of collecting freshwater and not releasing it. It has been about 20 years now since we've seen a flip in the cycle that used to happen every 5-10 years. From 2003 to 2018, we have seen a 40% growth in freshwater in the gyre relative to the climatology in the 1970s.
We don't think this has ever happened before. We have an unprecedented amount of freshwater up there. We are not sure what is going to happen if and when this freshwater is released to the rest of the ocean. A sudden release of freshwater could shut down the Atlantic’s large-scale circulation that stabilizes our climate. This is because the Arctic freshwater would be lighter than most of the water in the subpolar North Atlantic and float atop it like oil over water. This in turn would stop or at least slow down deep-water formation which is necessary for this circulation system to overturn. ***********************************************
Look at the visual correlation with the historical ACE values. The warm end of the forecasted 2024 hurricane season just got "chopped off"? Was the last few years of the AMO a downright fraud? Or just Mother Nature playing with us. "Something cold" is gonna happen ... and we are in just the place where we might expect it.
Hold onto your butts! We got a potential World War in the field ... an economy fixing to blow ... at least one serious clown running for president ... a population with elements displaying batshit crazy tendencies ... and a "climate" that is threatening to go bizzerk. Other than that ... we are in great shape ... and this is just a science fiction novel.
Dr. Ryan Maue and I have discussed this on X, and he confirms that this pattern has held for decades. His take is Eastern Pacific storms have their genesis in Atlantic Basin waves that don't develop in the Atlantic, but do in the Pacific after they cross Central America. If they develop in the Atlantic Basin (and we are told it will be a 2005 like Atlantic season) there will be few waves that make it to the Eastern Pacific to develop. Whatever is happening in the Atlantic, the current hurricane models have no skill at predicting it. I've seen some of the models spinning up TS whilst still over Africa. Theories abound from the weather folks on X about why the 2024 TS predictions appear to be a total bust. Most of the hardcore Mannites blame climate change for adiabatic pressure changes over Africa and the eastern Atlantic that have caused the ITCZ to migrate northward, suppressing the waves. In other words, it's climate change when we get the prediction correct, and climate change when they don't. Few seem interested in conducting a rigor based investigation into the processes that have brought us to a month with -0- ACE during the busiest part of the season. They just bleat "tipping point" and "anthropogenic climate change" as if that explains everything. I like that you are studying the processes that got us here, even if I have trouble figuring out your graphs sometimes. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 5, 2024 22:46:07 GMT
I am just putting together observations that other people have found. And suggesting possibilities. A cold tropical Atlantic cannot be good for the heat and intense convection required to generate and maintain tropical turbulence. How does the Atlantic become cold? What happened the last time the tropical Atlantic was significantly cold? No tropical heat ... no tropical boom boom.
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 6, 2024 12:21:21 GMT
I am just putting together observations that other people have found. And suggesting possibilities. A cold tropical Atlantic cannot be good for the heat and intense convection required to generate and maintain tropical turbulence. How does the Atlantic become cold? What happened the last time the tropical Atlantic was significantly cold? No tropical heat ... no tropical boom boom. Watch for and intense effort to name several fish storms based on model projections. |
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Sept 12, 2024 21:53:09 GMT
Well, we got a bit of a blow yesterday here on the South Coast. New Orleans took the worst of it, with almost 10 inches of rain in several hours causing street flooding. About 400,000 folks in South Louisiana and Mississippi were without power this morning. Here in Waveland, the storm surge was about 6 feet on top of high tide, so a lot of the camps along the rivers Jourdan, Wolf and Pearl took some water. All in all what is to be expected from a CAT 1 hitting Cochedrie with an east of NE heading and forward speed of almost 15 knots.
Two gripes about the TPC's handling of Francine. First, TPC stubbornly refused to recognize that live data from radar and surface obs showed the storm making a sharp jog to the east just after landfall. This jog took the center over New Orleans. A lot of folks were unprepared for this because the models showed the storm moving west of Lake Pontchartrain and TPC stuck with its models. At one point a NOLA TV weatherman called the TPC and told them to look at the radar signature. They apparently ignored him. I'm finding the total reliance on models of modern meteorologists to be increasingly frustrating.
Secondly, TPC upgraded Francine from a CAT 1 to a Cat 2 after she had made landfall and was being eroded to the south by dry air infiltration, and further degraded by western shear. TPC had predicted a CAT2, and by God they were going to validate that prediction even in the face of surface obs that showed the storm was degrading, not enhancing, at landfall.
Other than that that TPC did a pretty good job on this storm. Let's hope it's the only South Coast hurricane this year. I've got a back ache today from all the battening down of hatches that must be done when even a CAT 1 approaches.
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