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Post by glennkoks on Jun 16, 2023 20:54:57 GMT
Will China move to take Taiwan in next several years? I value your opinions so here it is. Please feel free to evaluate on why or why not...
I went with "yes" but I don't feel strongly about this.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 16, 2023 21:43:59 GMT
I say no because China's economic house is far from being in order right now and a war with the US over Taiwan could have (Will have) an unknown outcome, and potentially devastating effects on the Chinese economy, which could in turn lead to chaos in China at best, and revolution at worst. And, whilst China seems to have a numeric and even qualitative lead in some weaponry, there are those who study these things who believe Chinese weapons may, like a lot of Russian weapons, not be all that great. Their jet engines are inferior, and for all the crowing about their hypersonic missiles, they may, again like Russian weapons, turn out to be more vulnerable to US defense than everyone now seems to think. In short, a little island off the coast just may not be worth possibly throwing away all the gains they've made in the past 30 years, and a potential internal uprising or even a military mutiny.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 16, 2023 22:56:56 GMT
Okay, who else voted "No" and why? It's not an anonymous poll, I want reasons! Even if it's a gut hunch.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 16, 2023 23:17:54 GMT
I say no because China's economic house is far from being in order right now and a war with the US over Taiwan could have (Will have) an unknown outcome, and potentially devastating effects on the Chinese economy, which could in turn lead to chaos in China at best, and revolution at worst. And, whilst China seems to have a numeric and even qualitative lead in some weaponry, there are those who study these things who believe Chinese weapons may, like a lot of Russian weapons, not be all that great. Their jet engines are inferior, and for all the crowing about their hypersonic missiles, they may, again like Russian weapons, turn out to be more vulnerable to US defense than everyone now seems to think. In short, a little island off the coast just may not be worth possibly throwing away all the gains they've made in the past 30 years, and a potential internal uprising or even a military mutiny. I am thinking the economic chaos in China might give them all the more reason to invade Taiwan. Wag The Dog comes to mind. History has shown us that when everything is going wrong leaders will seek to deflect blame. Everyone knows that all the economic issues in China are the West's fault. In addition it would take Cracker Jack timing and a perfect military operation but if China could seize Taiwan's chip factories before they were blown up they could hold onto economic power worldwide for a while... |
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Post by ratty on Jun 16, 2023 23:44:30 GMT
Okay, who else voted "No" and why? It's not an anonymous poll, I want reasons! Even if it's a gut hunch. Where is the 'Don't know' option?  PS: I'm leaning towards 'No' but that would be with my fingers crossed. Too many variables, now further complicated by AI fakes. |
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 17, 2023 0:43:29 GMT
Okay, who else voted "No" and why? It's not an anonymous poll, I want reasons! Even if it's a gut hunch. Where is the 'Don't know' option? PS: I'm leaning towards 'No' but that would be with my fingers crossed. Too many variables, now further complicated by AI fakes. Knowbody Knows! This is about your best educated guess, hunches and sixth sense. The future is tough to predict... |
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Post by walnut on Jun 17, 2023 2:25:23 GMT
Going to have to go with no but I don't feel strongly... It's just too bad for business and I don't think that the Chinese economic situation is as strong as the hype has been saying.
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Post by gridley on Jun 17, 2023 12:17:44 GMT
My opinion remains what it has been for almost three decades. China WILL invade Taiwan... when they're sure they can win. They can win if the US doesn't get involved. They can't win if the US fully commits to Taiwan's defense. They'll be patient until they believe the time is right.
Now, I've come to believe that China's best bet for US non-intervention is a strong Democrat in the White House with a majority of both houses behind him (her/it...). The administration needs the political clout to say "we're changing our long-standing policy" and make it stick. At the moment we have an INCREDIBLY weak sock-puppet in the White House. So I expect continued preparations (including building islands) and saber-rattling (such as aggressive exercises) but not an invasion.
Now, if the US gets SERIOUSLY distracted by a crisis elsewhere? For example, if we actually put large ground forces into action in Ukraine? That might be enough of a distraction - the US media isn't capable of running more than one story at a time.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 17, 2023 13:00:25 GMT
When those Taiwanese chip factories get up and running in the US, Taiwan will be the summer home.
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Post by code on Jun 17, 2023 14:31:39 GMT
Will China move to take Taiwan in next several years? I value your opinions so here it is. Please feel free to evaluate on why or why not... I went with "yes" but I don't feel strongly about this. Cool thread. I will think about it and vote. |
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Post by code on Jun 17, 2023 14:33:06 GMT
I say no because China's economic house is far from being in order right now and a war with the US over Taiwan could have (Will have) an unknown outcome, and potentially devastating effects on the Chinese economy, which could in turn lead to chaos in China at best, and revolution at worst. And, whilst China seems to have a numeric and even qualitative lead in some weaponry, there are those who study these things who believe Chinese weapons may, like a lot of Russian weapons, not be all that great. Their jet engines are inferior, and for all the crowing about their hypersonic missiles, they may, again like Russian weapons, turn out to be more vulnerable to US defense than everyone now seems to think. In short, a little island off the coast just may not be worth possibly throwing away all the gains they've made in the past 30 years, and a potential internal uprising or even a military mutiny. I am thinking the economic chaos in China might give them all the more reason to invade Taiwan. Wag The Dog comes to mind. History has shown us that when everything is going wrong leaders will seek to deflect blame. Everyone knows that all the economic issues in China are the West's fault. In addition it would take Cracker Jack timing and a perfect military operation but if China could seize Taiwan's chip factories before they were blown up they could hold onto economic power worldwide for a while... I'm hoping if they do there is a contingency plan in place to flatten the chip factories. |
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Post by Sigurdur on Jun 17, 2023 15:52:30 GMT
No
1. Chip factories a few miles away.
2. Espionage is easy a few miles away.
3. Food. While China has invested trillions in Brazil, they still need US farm exports to keep folks fed.
4. Disruption in the export chain will result in starvation. No greater threat exists for the CCP.
5. Energy. China relies on imports to run their economy. Disruption of energy supplies will be 2nd to food.
The current situation is good for China.
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Post by flearider on Jun 17, 2023 18:13:18 GMT
trick question we voted on 24 mths .. to be fair if bidens lot get in then yes .. because there weak .. but they already know this so hence the new fabs in the usa ..
but it will be worst than the ukraine ..china know this we could see a nuke or 2 from either side .. it will be one of the most upsetting times of human history ..
but within 7 yrs yes it could happen ..
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Post by acidohm on Jun 17, 2023 22:03:36 GMT
This pretty much sums up what I think.
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Post by code on Jun 18, 2023 0:03:20 GMT
The Saturday Essay
Why the War in Ukraine May Not Deter China
U.S. strategists hope that Russia’s failures and the strong response from the West will give Beijing second thoughts about attacking Taiwan. But Xi Jinping could be drawing different lessons.
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