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Post by ratty on Sept 5, 2022 0:35:52 GMT
WE (US) are largely a wood-built civilization ... because we had lots of it ... and it was cheaper to construct. In Europe, the ancestors had used all the wood ... and the rest was owned by the nobility. We CAN build very efficient, modern caves ... but you need properly-oriented TOPOGRAPHY. Hard to build a cave in a swamp. I like my stick-built home on a concrete daylight basement. It is light and airey ... but it is an energy hog even with good insulation. Take the modern daylight basement design and move it down one story with lots of mass in the design. But that mass costs money. I think I have mentioned that my uncle built a nice underground house near Marble, AR. The area has appropriate topography. After you get used to *no windows* in most of the house, it just feels like a house. A little cave-like. Not sure I'd like it. But very efficient. We had a block that would have suited an in-the-ground design, several acres with a drop to a creek. I drew up some plans and discussed the possibilities with an Italian builder friend. We came up with a design that included above-ground garages with a stairway to the living quarters, full glass to a verandah facing the creek and a central atrium. We couldn't proceed because of the soil type ..... not affecting the building but the garden. Mrs Ratty is/was a KEEN gardener and the hill was all shale.    |
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Post by Sigurdur on Sept 5, 2022 0:53:02 GMT
I grow crops over shale runs! The fertility of the soil is super, the water holding capacity......
A window screen holds more H2O than a shale run.
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Post by ratty on Sept 5, 2022 3:59:36 GMT
I grow crops over shale runs! The fertility of the soil is super, the water holding capacity...... A window screen holds more H2O than a shale run. Why didn't you say? |
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Post by gridley on Sept 5, 2022 12:11:08 GMT
Yes, I'm not longing to revisit Dickens London. But I know that we had better try to conserve fossil fuels, until we prove that we can make work and safely manage some type of fusion or fission. Nit: we have proven we can make work and safely manage fission.
We should, indeed, use fossil fuels only as FUEL, not for primary electrical generation. For that matter I'm not opposed to electric vehicles... as soon as we finish converting the primary grid to all nuclear/hydro (with fuel reprocessing, I want this to last) and have enough plants to cover refueling cycles, hot summers, and other such surge cases (oh, and pumps in the dams to fully run them as buffers). We're still a breakthrough or two away from electric vehicles replacing IC but there are indeed places where electric vehicles make good sense.
Sadly, I don't see that happening any time soon.
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Post by walnut on Sept 5, 2022 13:02:49 GMT
Yes, I'm not longing to revisit Dickens London. But I know that we had better try to conserve fossil fuels, until we prove that we can make work and safely manage some type of fusion or fission. Nit: we have proven we can make work and safely manage fission.
We should, indeed, use fossil fuels only as FUEL, not for primary electrical generation. For that matter I'm not opposed to electric vehicles... as soon as we finish converting the primary grid to all nuclear/hydro (with fuel reprocessing, I want this to last) and have enough plants to cover refueling cycles, hot summers, and other such surge cases (oh, and pumps in the dams to fully run them as buffers). We're still a breakthrough or two away from electric vehicles replacing IC but there are indeed places where electric vehicles make good sense.
Sadly, I don't see that happening any time soon.
I'd like to agree, but I'd say- fairly safely but not quite safely. Earthquakes and wars happen. One Chernobyl sized incident is one too many. Earth cannot afford many of those.
Have we advanced past human error being an issue?
Encyclopedia Brittanica
"The Chernobyl disaster occurred when technicians at nuclear reactor Unit 4 attempted a poorly designed experiment. They shut down the reactor’s power-regulating system and its emergency safety systems, and they removed control rods from its core while allowing the reactor to run at 7 percent power. These mistakes, compounded by others, led to an uncontrolled chain reaction that resulted in several massive explosions."
Three Mile Island- "At 4:00 am on March 28, an automatically operated valve in the Unit 2 reactor mistakenly closed, shutting off the water supply to the main feedwater system (the system that transfers heat from the water actually circulating in the reactor core). This caused the reactor core to shut down automatically, but a series of equipment and instrument malfunctions, human errors in operating procedures, and mistaken decisions in the ensuing hours led to a serious loss of water coolant from the reactor core. As a result, the core was partially exposed, and the zirconium cladding of its fuel reacted with the surrounding superheated steam to form a large accumulation of hydrogen gas, some of which escaped from the core into the containment vessel of the reactor building."
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 5, 2022 13:06:43 GMT
The current rig count from Baker Hughes is 760. It was nearly twice that many just a few short years ago when oil prices were much lower. The only difference between then and now is ESG Investing and pressure on oil and gas financing. Most of the smaller Oil and Gas operators are heavily dependent on financing. New pressure on these lenders has severely hampered our ability to produce.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 5, 2022 13:07:27 GMT
Yes, I'm not longing to revisit Dickens London. But I know that we had better try to conserve fossil fuels, until we prove that we can make work and safely manage some type of fusion or fission. Nit: we have proven we can make work and safely manage fission.
We should, indeed, use fossil fuels only as FUEL, not for primary electrical generation. For that matter I'm not opposed to electric vehicles... as soon as we finish converting the primary grid to all nuclear/hydro (with fuel reprocessing, I want this to last) and have enough plants to cover refueling cycles, hot summers, and other such surge cases (oh, and pumps in the dams to fully run them as buffers). We're still a breakthrough or two away from electric vehicles replacing IC but there are indeed places where electric vehicles make good sense.
Sadly, I don't see that happening any time soon.
In MY administration, you'll be head of DOE.  The kleptocrats and bolsheviks will run for cover. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 5, 2022 13:26:30 GMT
The current rig count from Baker Hughes is 760. It was nearly twice that many just a few short years ago when oil prices were much lower. The only difference between then and now is ESG Investing and pressure on oil and gas financing. Most of the smaller Oil and Gas operators are heavily dependent on financing. New pressure on these lenders have severely hampered our ability to produce. I believe that that would be the goal. Of course they have no plan for the mayhem? |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 5, 2022 13:38:28 GMT
Nit: we have proven we can make work and safely manage fission.
We should, indeed, use fossil fuels only as FUEL, not for primary electrical generation. For that matter I'm not opposed to electric vehicles... as soon as we finish converting the primary grid to all nuclear/hydro (with fuel reprocessing, I want this to last) and have enough plants to cover refueling cycles, hot summers, and other such surge cases (oh, and pumps in the dams to fully run them as buffers). We're still a breakthrough or two away from electric vehicles replacing IC but there are indeed places where electric vehicles make good sense.
Sadly, I don't see that happening any time soon.
I'd like to agree, but I'd say- fairly safely but not quite safely. Earthquakes and wars happen. One Chernobyl sized incident is one too many. Earth cannot afford many of those.
Have we advanced past human error being an issue?
Encyclopedia Brittanica
"The Chernobyl disaster occurred when technicians at nuclear reactor Unit 4 attempted a poorly designed experiment. They shut down the reactor’s power-regulating system and its emergency safety systems, and they removed control rods from its core while allowing the reactor to run at 7 percent power. These mistakes, compounded by others, led to an uncontrolled chain reaction that resulted in several massive explosions."
Three Mile Island- "At 4:00 am on March 28, an automatically operated valve in the Unit 2 reactor mistakenly closed, shutting off the water supply to the main feedwater system (the system that transfers heat from the water actually circulating in the reactor core). This caused the reactor core to shut down automatically, but a series of equipment and instrument malfunctions, human errors in operating procedures, and mistaken decisions in the ensuing hours led to a serious loss of water coolant from the reactor core. As a result, the core was partially exposed, and the zirconium cladding of its fuel reacted with the surrounding superheated steam to form a large accumulation of hydrogen gas, some of which escaped from the core into the containment vessel of the reactor building."
"Nothing is foolproof because fools are so ingenious". Beyond platitudes, the rings of missile silos that dot the planet are probably a greater threat. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 5, 2022 14:22:03 GMT
Does that mean you think Gail Tverberg is essentially correct when she says "The real story is that we are already running short of oil, coal and natural gas because the direct and indirect costs of extraction are reaching a point where the selling price of food and other basic necessities needs to be unacceptably high to make the overall economic system work"? Or do you see other factors at play? I read plenty of conspiracy theories blaming the greedy profit-takers, but that doesn't stack up to me. Thank you Jane. As an actuary, Gail is a refreshing bit of fresh air. Bureaucrats should be required to step up and address "an actuarial analysis" on a regular basis ... and certainly before the implementation of new programs. Actuaries can be surprised too by unforeseen discoveries and events. Conditions (present and future) can change. American Presidents deliver "State of the Union" speeches. It would be "interesting" to a have an actuarial state of the union address. A Jack Webb sort of approach.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 5, 2022 21:40:45 GMT
I think I have mentioned that my uncle built a nice underground house near Marble, AR. The area has appropriate topography. After you get used to *no windows* in most of the house, it just feels like a house. A little cave-like. Not sure I'd like it. But very efficient. We had a block that would have suited an in-the-ground design, several acres with a drop to a creek. I drew up some plans and discussed the possibilities with an Italian builder friend. We came up with a design that included above-ground garages with a stairway to the living quarters, full glass to a verandah facing the creek and a central atrium. We couldn't proceed because of the soil type ..... not affecting the building but the garden. Mrs Ratty is/was a KEEN gardener and the hill was all shale. Depending on the size of garden required, you can "build" soil with prep, dump trucks (with soil), wheel barrows and lots of personal labor. I have done it and continue to do it in raised beds fringing my drainage. My new best seller is going to be titled ... "Gardening With Dynamite". |
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Post by walnut on Sept 6, 2022 2:44:44 GMT
I'd like to agree, but I'd say- fairly safely but not quite safely. Earthquakes and wars happen. One Chernobyl sized incident is one too many. Earth cannot afford many of those.
Have we advanced past human error being an issue?
Encyclopedia Brittanica
"The Chernobyl disaster occurred when technicians at nuclear reactor Unit 4 attempted a poorly designed experiment. They shut down the reactor’s power-regulating system and its emergency safety systems, and they removed control rods from its core while allowing the reactor to run at 7 percent power. These mistakes, compounded by others, led to an uncontrolled chain reaction that resulted in several massive explosions."
Three Mile Island- "At 4:00 am on March 28, an automatically operated valve in the Unit 2 reactor mistakenly closed, shutting off the water supply to the main feedwater system (the system that transfers heat from the water actually circulating in the reactor core). This caused the reactor core to shut down automatically, but a series of equipment and instrument malfunctions, human errors in operating procedures, and mistaken decisions in the ensuing hours led to a serious loss of water coolant from the reactor core. As a result, the core was partially exposed, and the zirconium cladding of its fuel reacted with the surrounding superheated steam to form a large accumulation of hydrogen gas, some of which escaped from the core into the containment vessel of the reactor building."
"Nothing is foolproof because fools are so ingenious". Beyond platitudes, the rings of missile silos that dot the planet are probably a greater threat. Certainly not foolproof, no
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Post by ratty on Sept 6, 2022 4:46:40 GMT
We had a block that would have suited an in-the-ground design, several acres with a drop to a creek. I drew up some plans and discussed the possibilities with an Italian builder friend. We came up with a design that included above-ground garages with a stairway to the living quarters, full glass to a verandah facing the creek and a central atrium. We couldn't proceed because of the soil type ..... not affecting the building but the garden. Mrs Ratty is/was a KEEN gardener and the hill was all shale. Depending on the size of garden required, you can "build" soil with prep, dump trucks (with soil), wheel barrows and lots of personal labor. I have done it and continue to do it in raised beds fringing my drainage. My new best seller is going to be titled ... "Gardening With Dynamite". When I pointed that out, the 'discussion' became heated.  |
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Post by Jane in the centre of England on Sept 6, 2022 7:51:57 GMT
A summary of my understanding of the current world energy situation
1. Historical-political
The industrial revolution was coal-powered. This led to the hegemony of the UK (which has large reserves of coal), and subsequently Europe. At the turn of the 20th century the major source of energy switched to oil. This favoured the USA, which has a lot of it. Europe acquiesced to this new reality and switched their ships and trains from coal to oil power. It left them vulnerable, however, as they had hardly any oil reserves of their own. For the political repercussions of this through the 20th century, see part 1 of 'Disorder' by Prof. Helen Thompson.
Now the US hegemony is coming to an end. China, India, Russia and Brazil are beyond their control. The US seems to act as if it is still pulling the strings, but evidently is not doing so. This is leading to increasing instability, as events this year in Europe have shown. (As a European, I am mystified as to why the European governments take the decisions they do. I would have thought that they would have learned by now not to let themselves be the theatre of the power struggle between the US and Russia AGAIN.)
2. Peak oil
Fossil fuels are a finite resource. This has led to a search for alternatives: nuclear and renewables, each of which has its downsides. Government endorsement of this search has led the energy companies to reduce investment in new sources. This brings short-term increase in profits to them, as fossil fuels are demand-inelastic, meaning that a small drop in supply leads to a huge increase in price. The consequences (social unrest, economic recession, food and fuel poverty) are the governments' problems, not theirs.
There are other factors too, such as the social/psychological/economic effects of the lockdowns of 2020-21. The energy companies saw a drop in demand which left them exposed. It also caused many of us to review our relationship with the government, to look to ways to become more self-reliant.
Is that a reasonable summary? What other factors should be included?
As for the future of energy, I still have no idea. The mega-rich are hunkering down, in New Zealand or on large tracts of farmland in the middle of nowhere, which would suggest they can't see any other way through the transition time we are in.
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Post by gridley on Sept 6, 2022 11:07:03 GMT
"Nothing is foolproof because fools are so ingenious". Beyond platitudes, the rings of missile silos that dot the planet are probably a greater threat. Certainly not foolproof, no
NO high-energy system is foolproof, or proof against being exploited as a weapon. The only logical path is to ban cars, planes, transformers, bulldozers, cranes...
Even mentioning Three-Mile Island (where, please note NO ONE DIED and the radiation level outside the plant never exceeded the levels found every day inside NY's Grand Central Station main concourse) and Chernobyl shows either a massive misunderstanding of nuclear incidents or a complete lack of interest in rational discussion. Care to pick? Bonus question: what year did the Three Mile Island incident occur, and how many similar incidents (or worse) incidents have there been in the US since?
Yes, there's a difference between pressurized water reactors and boiling water reactors. The fact that some people still injure themselves every year making bonfires doesn't mean that we haven't learned how to control fire.
What we haven't learned to control is *ourselves* and our societies. The US, as a society, utterly bungled our last presidential election. Does that mean elections aren't safe anymore and we should stop having them?
Most US cities aren't at all safe places to be at present. Does that mean cities aren't safe and we should get rid of them? Wait... don't tempt me...
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The kleptocrats and bolsheviks will run for cover.