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Post by flearider on May 22, 2022 15:14:05 GMT
so here's the question .. if we are heading into a grand solar minimum how is cycle 25 going to be greater than cycle 24 ? yeah i asked it ..  I've read the prediction not saying i understood it all but i got the jist .. so what does this mean we aren't heading into a solar min or it's just taking longer to get there ?  ? only time will tell .... |
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Post by duwayne on May 22, 2022 16:01:39 GMT
Svalgaard has posted his Cycle 25 prediction here which includes his prediction chart. Let me finish my posts here by posting the latest update on the progress of Cycle 25 compared to cycles 21 through 24. Note that the last data point for Cycle 25 is September 2021. The data are 13-month smoothed data which requires 7 months data beyond the month being calculated.
It's too early to draw any meaningful conclusions but so far Cycle 25 is running a little above Cycle 24 as Svalgaard predicted. (Note that this image updates on its own.)
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Post by code on May 23, 2022 16:38:57 GMT
so here's the question .. if we are heading into a grand solar minimum how is cycle 25 going to be greater than cycle 24 ? yeah i asked it ..  I've read the prediction not saying i understood it all but i got the jist .. so what does this mean we aren't heading into a solar min or it's just taking longer to get there ?  ? only time will tell .... Flea,
Glad you asked. The answer I suspect is we are not going into a GSM, and we should review those sources that suggest or proclaim we are heading into a minimum, because it appears we are not. |
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Post by missouriboy on May 23, 2022 18:10:42 GMT
so here's the question .. if we are heading into a grand solar minimum how is cycle 25 going to be greater than cycle 24 ? yeah i asked it .. I've read the prediction not saying i understood it all but i got the jist .. so what does this mean we aren't heading into a solar min or it's just taking longer to get there ? ? only time will tell .... Flea,
Glad you asked. The answer I suspect is we are not going into a GSM, and we should review those sources that suggest or proclaim we are heading into a minimum, because it appears we are not. Given that SC24 was significantly lower than the last 3 (21, 22 & 23), and SC25 appears to be generally headed the same way, I guess it just depends on what you mean by GRAND. |
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Post by nonentropic on May 23, 2022 21:32:29 GMT
agree MB much to still happen and being closer to the 200 year average than the peak of the last 200 years the impact should be apparent.
A GSM would have been easier.
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Post by code on May 29, 2022 14:30:51 GMT
Flea,
Glad you asked. The answer I suspect is we are not going into a GSM, and we should review those sources that suggest or proclaim we are heading into a minimum, because it appears we are not. Given that SC24 was significantly lower than the last 3 (21, 22 & 23), and SC25 appears to be generally headed the same way, I guess it just depends on what you mean by GRAND. Good point Missouri,
There are grand pianos and then there are GRAND pianos
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Post by walnut on May 29, 2022 15:34:55 GMT
Given that SC24 was significantly lower than the last 3 (21, 22 & 23), and SC25 appears to be generally headed the same way, I guess it just depends on what you mean by GRAND. Good point Missouri,
There are grand pianos and then there are GRAND pianos
Even more impressive is the candelabra |
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Post by code on Aug 5, 2022 16:55:23 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 5, 2022 21:09:42 GMT
I think that this pony has already passed the launch point. I think I'll go with Dr. Leif.   |
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Post by flearider on Aug 6, 2022 4:53:10 GMT
I think that this pony has already passed the launch point. I think I'll go with Dr. Leif. could be like every old man .. fast start and then it's over .. it's def not a 23 ... and could still drop out early ..  |
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Post by code on Oct 22, 2023 15:42:30 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Oct 22, 2023 17:48:35 GMT
I'd still argue there'd a disparity in the expression of peak sunspot number as a metric to overall cycle strength. Current cycle has needed both hemisphere in conjunction to achieve a higher peak (so far *) than cycle 24 did with one dominant hemisphere.  * sunspots currently appearing to trend downwards with spots appearing near equator, suggesting we're nearing the end of peak activity? |
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Post by blustnmtn on Oct 22, 2023 20:40:52 GMT
Quite away to go but I think Svalgaard’s forecast is going to hold up.
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Post by duwayne on Oct 23, 2023 14:01:39 GMT
Quite away to go but I think Svalgaard’s forecast is going to hold up. I don't want to speak for Acidohm, but I suspect he is not looking for a higher "second peak" because the first peak will have been "juiced up" by concurrent peaks in the 2 hemispheres. It's looking to me like the first peak will be close to Svalgaard's prediction. Therefore Svalgaard's forecast is looking good.
A second peak could come in at near the same level.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 23, 2023 14:23:22 GMT
Quite away to go but I think Svalgaard’s forecast is going to hold up. I don't want to speak for Acidohm, but I suspect he is not looking for a higher "second peak" because the first peak will have been "juiced up" by concurrent peaks in the 2 hemispheres. It's looking to me like the first peak will be close to Svalgaard's prediction. Therefore Svalgaard's forecast is looking good.
A second peak could come in at near the same level.
There won't be 2 peaks this cycle Duwayne, hemispheres are in sync. |
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? only time will tell ....
? only time will tell ....
