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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 11, 2022 13:29:09 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 11, 2022 17:25:46 GMT
So where is the list of the alternatives?
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Post by nonentropic on Jan 12, 2022 2:24:51 GMT
I can not believe that a state such as TX plus plus does not have the critical mass to build an alternative set of platforms.
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Post by walnut on Jan 15, 2022 2:28:25 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 15, 2022 22:54:09 GMT
I can not believe that a state such as TX plus plus does not have the critical mass to build an alternative set of platforms. While I generally like to see government (any government) stay the hell out of the private sector, there may be a case here for Non's suggestion. If the free flow of information and ideas is critical to a technological society ... and the large tech giants cannot be trusted or forced to run politically uncensored sites ... then perhaps it is time for a large State such as Texas, or a consortium of States, to fund (and profit from) an internet, where rules regarding access and censorship are imposed and enforced by the State or the consortium.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 27, 2022 2:00:33 GMT
Here is David Dilley again ...
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 7, 2022 23:22:25 GMT
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steve
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 70
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Post by steve on Feb 8, 2022 0:19:11 GMT
Interesting article.
I am struggling with how a cloud modeled at a resolution of 100 km can affect something the width of a human hair.
I am sure the people creating these models are much smart than I am. Having said that I have a little experience with Finite Element Analysis in my previous life. It has given me a healthy dose of skepticism when it comes to "models".
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 8, 2022 0:51:43 GMT
Interesting article. I am struggling with how a cloud modeled at a resolution of 100 km can affect something the width of a human hair. I am sure the people creating these models are much smart than I am. Having said that I have a little experience with Finite Element Analysis in my previous life. It has given me a healthy dose of skepticism when it comes to "models". The complex problem of clouds has been known from the onset of this modeling enterprise but the model predictions are believed anyway. Moreover, they don’t know what they don’t know! More and more money is being poured into this and there is no end in site. Professors, students and grifters are making a great living on this and as long as the predictions remain dire the money will keep flowing their way. I think climate science is actually being advanced in the long run but the demagoguery and fake news is disgusting and extremely dangerous.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 8, 2022 16:09:07 GMT
Interesting article. I am struggling with how a cloud modeled at a resolution of 100 km can affect something the width of a human hair. I am sure the people creating these models are much smart than I am. Having said that I have a little experience with Finite Element Analysis in my previous life. It has given me a healthy dose of skepticism when it comes to "models". The complex problem of clouds has been known from the onset of this modeling enterprise but the model predictions are believed anyway. Moreover, they don’t know what they don’t know! More and more money is being poured into this and there is no end in site. Professors, students and grifters are making a great living on this and as long as the predictions remain dire the money will keep flowing their way. I think climate science is actually being advanced in the long run but the demagoguery and fake news is disgusting and extremely dangerous. Each and every bit of skepticism about models is deserved ... and required. Great "tools" IF you are a pragmatic researcher. But their outputs (as with all other things) suffer from Man's tendency to "believe what he wants to and disregard the rest". It is doubtful that this later tendency can or will be changed. Here, discrimination is not personal, and absolutely required. Show me!
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Post by walnut on Feb 8, 2022 16:43:55 GMT
The complex problem of clouds has been known from the onset of this modeling enterprise but the model predictions are believed anyway. Moreover, they don’t know what they don’t know! More and more money is being poured into this and there is no end in site. Professors, students and grifters are making a great living on this and as long as the predictions remain dire the money will keep flowing their way. I think climate science is actually being advanced in the long run but the demagoguery and fake news is disgusting and extremely dangerous. Each and every bit of skepticism about models is deserved ... and required. Great "tools" IF you are a pragmatic researcher. But their outputs (as with all other things) suffer from Man's tendency to "believe what he wants to and disregard the rest". It is doubtful that this later tendency can or will be changed. Here, discrimination is not personal, and absolutely required. Show me! Discrimination is natural, pattern recognition to discern and avoid risks and dangers. All animals do it, necessarily. It's impossible to not do it, and hypocritical to say otherwise.
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 8, 2022 18:12:53 GMT
I'm pretty certain that within each model they have the ability to alter the consequent impact on clouds both up and down and at what time of day and season everywhere etc.
I am also certain that they have run the models with falling and rising outcomes and permutations there of.
Do all consequent model runs produce a sensitivity great than 1X? (Charney) I think we know the answer and we also know that a sensitivity can be requested and the cloud permutations required will be plausible because its a massive portion of the climate system.
Why are clouds not part of the models, because a simple look at Willis E's work shows that the outcomes would be very tricky to model to say the least.
The most profitable thing I did was research the sea temperatures at the equator through time and surprising to all modellers I would say is they remain largely the same through a temperature swing of 12C at the poles.
We will not burn up if you think 30C at the ocean edge is not to hot. For me the Hadley cell width if it can be finely measured and consequent area determined should define where in the climate cycle we are. (I think)
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 8, 2022 22:28:39 GMT
I'm pretty certain that within each model they have the ability to alter the consequent impact on clouds both up and down and at what time of day and season everywhere etc. I am also certain that they have run the models with falling and rising outcomes and permutations there of. Do all consequent model runs produce a sensitivity great than 1X? (Charney) I think we know the answer and we also know that a sensitivity can be requested and the cloud permutations required will be plausible because its a massive portion of the climate system. Why are clouds not part of the models, because a simple look at Willis E's work shows that the outcomes would be very tricky to model to say the least. The most profitable thing I did was research the sea temperatures at the equator through time and surprising to all modellers I would say is they remain largely the same through a temperature swing of 12C at the poles. We will not burn up if you think 30C at the ocean edge is not to hot. For me the Hadley cell width if it can be finely measured and consequent area determined should define where in the climate cycle we are. (I think) That should be quite possible for someone with access to the databases and a geographic information system. Prior to satellites, the data gets much thinner, but there are people that have assembled such. Saying nothing about accuracy. Here is one such set. Have not looked at it in any depth.
The International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD, Cram et al. 2015) is the world's largest collection of pressure observations. It spans 1722-2015. It has been developed by extracting observations from established international archives of meteorological variables and by combining these with observations made available through additional international cooperation with data recovery facilitated by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) Initiative and the other contributing organizations.
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Post by Sigurdur on Feb 13, 2022 17:39:08 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 14, 2022 14:33:42 GMT
This is extremely inconvenient: wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/13/new-study-on-the-basis-of-observational-data-the-climate-crisisis-not-evident-yet/“The analysis is then extended to some global response indicators of extreme meteorological events, namely natural disasters, floods, droughts, ecosystem productivity and yields of the four main crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat). None of these response indicators show a clear positive trend of extreme events. In conclusion on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not evident yet.”
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