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Post by walnut on Jan 24, 2022 14:01:52 GMT
Market charts looking spooky this morning. Amzn particularly looks strange. It's already lost over 26% recently. Market needs to bounce or else
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Post by Sigurdur on Jan 24, 2022 14:04:13 GMT
Yep
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 24, 2022 14:31:21 GMT
Russian markets appear upset too.
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Post by code on Jan 24, 2022 15:21:04 GMT
my bowels were upset this morning...
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Post by walnut on Jan 24, 2022 16:18:54 GMT
One indicator which seems to have exceptional predictive power is the TSV (my opinion)- time segmented volume. When I saw the daily TSV for VXX volatility futures ETF it took my breath away.
I use the 30 minute time frame to trade, but the daily has value too.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 24, 2022 17:05:16 GMT
One indicator which seems to have exceptional predictive power is the TSV (my opinion)- time segmented volume. When I saw the daily TSV for VXX volatility futures ETF it took my breath away.
I use the 30 minute time frame to trade, but the daily has value too.
I don't follow these indicators as I do not touch the stock market (no expertise). If you saw that TSV on a seismograph, would you expect something unpleasant? Or is my analogy way off? |
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Post by walnut on Jan 24, 2022 22:40:27 GMT
One indicator which seems to have exceptional predictive power is the TSV (my opinion)- time segmented volume. When I saw the daily TSV for VXX volatility futures ETF it took my breath away.
I use the 30 minute time frame to trade, but the daily has value too.
I don't follow these indicators as I do not touch the stock market (no expertise). If you saw that TSV on a seismograph, would you expect something unpleasant? Or is my analogy way off? It's probably not really analogous. TSV's sort of calculate the price in a different way. Seismograph is real time and more like the price chart itself. The TSV integrates buying and selling volume into the calculation.
By the way, what a bounce the market took in the second half of the day.
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Post by walnut on Jan 24, 2022 23:35:24 GMT
Since this is a prediction thread, I'll stick my neck out and say we are headed into a neutral/ bear market this year. I don't trust the quality of my own prediction enough to go short lol so....
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Post by Sigurdur on Jan 25, 2022 0:59:29 GMT
Since this is a prediction thread, I'll stick my neck out and say we are headed into a neutral/ bear market this year. I don't trust the quality of my own prediction enough to go short lol so.... Jack be nimble Jack be quick Jack jump off the candle stick. |
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Post by duwayne on Jan 28, 2022 17:16:37 GMT
Just to finish the discussion of a possible 10% drop in the S&P 500, it did fall by 10% which is not surprising since that occurs on average every 2 years.
My investment in Carnival Cruise went on a wild ride. After quickly rising by 25%, it fell back by 22%. Unfortunately, there is a new Omicron variant which is proving to be 50% more contagious than the original, so the US cases which are currently falling rapidly could even increase a little in the short term. My real concern is there might be an Omicron 3 variant which is even more contagious.
This would actually speed up the demise of COVID, but isn't good for the cruise business this summer. I've decided to take my $.50 per share gain and wait a while.
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Post by flearider on Jan 28, 2022 21:00:14 GMT
Just to finish the discussion of a possible 10% drop in the S&P 500, it did fall by 10% which is not surprising since that occurs on average every 2 years.
My investment in Carnival Cruise went on a wild ride. After quickly rising by 25%, it fell back by 22%. Unfortunately, there is a new Omicron variant which is proving to be 50% more contagious than the original, so the US cases which are currently falling rapidly could even increase a little in the short term. My real concern is there might be an Omicron 3 variant which is even more contagious.
This would actually speed up the demise of COVID, but isn't good for the cruise business this summer. I've decided to take my $.50 per share gain and wait a while.
why .. if you have had omni .. they say your ok with the 2 daughter/son of it .. the gene variance is not enough to cause harm .. lets see what the next mutation brings  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 28, 2022 21:24:53 GMT
Just to finish the discussion of a possible 10% drop in the S&P 500, it did fall by 10% which is not surprising since that occurs on average every 2 years.
My investment in Carnival Cruise went on a wild ride. After quickly rising by 25%, it fell back by 22%. Unfortunately, there is a new Omicron variant which is proving to be 50% more contagious than the original, so the US cases which are currently falling rapidly could even increase a little in the short term. My real concern is there might be an Omicron 3 variant which is even more contagious.
This would actually speed up the demise of COVID, but isn't good for the cruise business this summer. I've decided to take my $.50 per share gain and wait a while.
why .. if you have had omni .. they say your ok with the 2 daughter/son of it .. the gene variance is not enough to cause harm .. lets see what the next mutation brings  At least with Omicron and its descendants we can develop some immunity ... unlike the Washington DC variety, which is much deadlier.  |
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Post by duwayne on Jan 28, 2022 22:59:34 GMT
Just to finish the discussion of a possible 10% drop in the S&P 500, it did fall by 10% which is not surprising since that occurs on average every 2 years.
My investment in Carnival Cruise went on a wild ride. After quickly rising by 25%, it fell back by 22%. Unfortunately, there is a new Omicron variant which is proving to be 50% more contagious than the original, so the US cases which are currently falling rapidly could even increase a little in the short term. My real concern is there might be an Omicron 3 variant which is even more contagious.
This would actually speed up the demise of COVID, but isn't good for the cruise business this summer. I've decided to take my $.50 per share gain and wait a while.
why .. if you have had omni .. they say your ok with the 2 daughter/son of it .. the gene variance is not enough to cause harm .. lets see what the next mutation brings I think we're in agreement with the danger or lack thereof of Omicron. My vision was that Omicron cases would quickly shoot up, then just as quickly play out and the cruise lines would have a good summer (that's when they make their big money) and Carnival Cruise could work its way back from $18 per share towards its old, pre-COVID price of $60 per share. Now COVID 2 and possibly COVID 3 could hurt my envisioned summer recovery.
I decided to move my money to another opportunity and maybe get back into Carnival later. Probably at a higher price but still way below $60.
With Walnut making a 150% return over 2 years, I can't sit around just making small change.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 29, 2022 1:23:03 GMT
This will get worse in 2022 ... |
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Post by walnut on Jan 29, 2022 3:27:07 GMT
why .. if you have had omni .. they say your ok with the 2 daughter/son of it .. the gene variance is not enough to cause harm .. lets see what the next mutation brings I think we're in agreement with the danger or lack thereof of Omicron. My vision was that Omicron cases would quickly shoot up, then just as quickly play out and the cruise lines would have a good summer (that's when they make their big money) and Carnival Cruise could work its way back from $18 per share towards its old, pre-COVID price of $60 per share. Now COVID 2 and possibly COVID 3 could hurt my envisioned summer recovery.
I decided to move my money to another opportunity and maybe get back into Carnival later. Probably at a higher price but still way below $60.
With Walnut making a 150% return over 2 years, I can't sit around just making small change.
We had a very good day, it's 167% now (2 years and 2 days).
For investing rather than trading I'd keep lots of dry powder. Big bargains and rare opportunities are coming sometime this year I feel like.
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