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Post by nonentropic on Oct 5, 2022 19:09:54 GMT
Like calculus climate the integral of weather.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 18, 2022 17:08:22 GMT
I have added a 14-day cumulative moving average to the 7-day centered moving average. SC25 had been running above SC24 for about a year, but the last couple of months is slightly below.
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Post by ratty on Oct 18, 2022 23:19:33 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 20, 2022 2:22:44 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 31, 2022 3:23:19 GMT
Sunspots for the last day of October are in ... and the 14-day cumulative daily average for SC25 appears to be leveling off below the first high point for SC24. Currently at day 1067. |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 1, 2022 18:18:47 GMT
Sunspots for the last day of October are in ... and the 14-day cumulative daily average for SC25 appears to be leveling off below the first high point for SC24. Currently at day 1067. I subscribe to the futility of watching trends daily, however I can't help but check it weekly! We have probably another 3-4 months to start to get a better idea of the reality. Till then, really anything could happen, but definitely, it's not kicking of now! |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 3, 2022 5:37:22 GMT
This graph really shows how the solar max is really an intense/short period of 'fizz' something we havnt seen.....yet. Also note, compared to cycle 24, NH and SH are tracking more similarly. It doesn't look like there'll be a double peak?  Another way to surmise, the total SSN from the previous cycle was adding a weaker hemisphere to a stronger one. The total SSN of this cycle so far is that of 2 more similar hemispheres. Both are weaker then the stronger of the previous hemispheres. |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 3, 2022 14:33:25 GMT
Order From Spaghetti Chaos? As always, we are data short. And we love to speculate what effects the "Big Glow Plug" has on Earthly phenomena, such as ENSO, which affect weather patterns on our planet. So what can we tease from the data? Chart 1 shows normalized monthly sunspots across Solar Cycles 20 to 25. SC 25 is a little out of date on this chart, but the pattern is continuing. I note that practically all the differences between cycles occur in the first 4+ years of the cycles. In as much as sunspots are a proxy for the range and totals of electro-magnetic radiation reaching Earth, there is quite a difference. SC24 and 25 are much lower than SC20, which sparked "the Great Ice Age Scare. That was, of course, before Charles Oscar became the New God of Despair and Corruption.
Perhaps I'll continue this with similar cross-cycle plots of other climate indices. For now, I merely plot the normalized ENSO 3.4 index (Chart 2), noting only that Cycles 20-25 all had a Nino-Nina combo across the first 3 years of the cycle. These have been of different magnitudes that merge into the run-up to solar maximum ... and fall off the leeward slope in large amplitude waves.
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 10, 2022 14:20:25 GMT
From Spaceweather.com:  |
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Post by ratty on Nov 11, 2022 2:08:43 GMT
From Spaceweather.com: Interpretations please ..... what does it mean? How will it affect us at 2M? |
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 11, 2022 2:25:07 GMT
Interpretations please ..... what does it mean? How will it affect us at 2M? Ole Sparkey is fighting off the evil rads again. |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 18, 2022 20:30:04 GMT
SSn currently stabilised at reduced levels. Possibly storing up energy to be released in a 'twang'?  |
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 20, 2022 18:43:12 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 26, 2022 6:31:11 GMT
A slowdown currently going on.  |
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Post by acidohm on Nov 27, 2022 7:47:54 GMT
A slowdown currently going on. I havnt seen any interest about this outside of this forum. As each week goes by the odds that we've seen cycle 25 peak increase. Now.....they're very small odds...let's be clear. However sunspot activity, right now, is more subdued than seems part of any ramp up to a peak. I think the odds that the much vaunted prediction that cycle 25 will be stronger than 24 are weakening quite quickly. |
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