This graph really shows how the solar max is really an intense/short period of 'fizz' something we havnt seen.....yet.
Also note, compared to cycle 24, NH and SH are tracking more similarly. It doesn't look like there'll be a double peak?
Another way to surmise, the total SSN from the previous cycle was adding a weaker hemisphere to a stronger one. The total SSN of this cycle so far is that of 2 more similar hemispheres. Both are weaker then the stronger of the previous hemispheres.
Order From Spaghetti Chaos? As always, we are data short. And we love to speculate what effects the "Big Glow Plug" has on Earthly phenomena, such as ENSO, which affect weather patterns on our planet. So what can we tease from the data? Chart 1 shows normalized monthly sunspots across Solar Cycles 20 to 25. SC 25 is a little out of date on this chart, but the pattern is continuing. I note that practically all the differences between cycles occur in the first 4+ years of the cycles. In as much as sunspots are a proxy for the range and totals of electro-magnetic radiation reaching Earth, there is quite a difference. SC24 and 25 are much lower than SC20, which sparked "the Great Ice Age Scare. That was, of course, before Charles Oscar became the New God of Despair and Corruption.
Perhaps I'll continue this with similar cross-cycle plots of other climate indices. For now, I merely plot the normalized ENSO 3.4 index (Chart 2), noting only that Cycles 20-25 all had a Nino-Nina combo across the first 3 years of the cycle. These have been of different magnitudes that merge into the run-up to solar maximum ... and fall off the leeward slope in large amplitude waves.
“When the situation is hopeless, there’s nothing to worry about.” (Edward Abbey)
“If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.” -Samuel Adams
I havnt seen any interest about this outside of this forum. As each week goes by the odds that we've seen cycle 25 peak increase.
Now.....they're very small odds...let's be clear.
However sunspot activity, right now, is more subdued than seems part of any ramp up to a peak. I think the odds that the much vaunted prediction that cycle 25 will be stronger than 24 are weakening quite quickly.