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Post by acidohm on Jul 27, 2023 18:26:57 GMT
I'm glad to hear it, Mr. Acid. See if you can reach me in the grave and let me know if this prediction pans out. My personal belief is a lot of this admittedly anomalous weather is a result of Hunga Tonga eruption. Someone on another thread here linked to Ryan Maue's WUWT post about how the initial estimates of H2O injected in the Stratosphere were off by a lot, and the thinking is now that this eruption could effect weather for years. And, the timing is right. I'm sure you'll all have solarcycle28forum going on the afterlife interweb by then Mr.Phy...keep me a space and I'll update you on arrival 👍🏻 |
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 27, 2023 20:41:01 GMT
"We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions." Always 30 years from now. Who will remember? Who on this board will be around in 30 years Odds about 60-40 against me on making it 30 more years but I got a fighting chance. |
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Post by ratty on Jul 28, 2023 6:12:38 GMT
"We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions." Always 30 years from now. Who will remember? Who on this board will be around in 30 years Odds about 60-40 against me on making it 30 more years but I got a fighting chance. Zero chance here but I will be watching!  |
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 28, 2023 19:39:21 GMT
remember Ratty if RCP8.5 can be projected as having a believable probability of happening, you have a strong chance of making 200.
I think the probability of RCP 8.5 coming to pass is 1 in a trillion.
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Post by ratty on Jul 28, 2023 22:37:44 GMT
remember Ratty if RCP8.5 can be projected as having a believable probability of happening, you have a strong chance of making 200.I think the probability of RCP 8.5 coming to pass is 1 in a trillion. I will be very grumpy.  |
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 29, 2023 1:23:38 GMT
remember Ratty if RCP8.5 can be projected as having a believable probability of happening, you have a strong chance of making 200.I think the probability of RCP 8.5 coming to pass is 1 in a trillion. I will be very grumpy. So will we😵💫 |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 29, 2023 20:51:59 GMT
Not that different from the expected reversal of the AMO. which is disappointingly late. Maybe not so disappointing for a European that likes warmth.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 5, 2024 23:43:51 GMT
Found this from a link here. Great combo. We await the negative NAO. Whenever ... I think there is a decent probability it will be "little" cooler for a while. If Michael hasn't got his Caribbean hideaway by now, he's almost out of time. He may be hoping his lawsuits buy that for him. I see no reason that the next few years shouldn't look more like the sixties. It has already disrupted the summer pressure patterns off the NW coast of Africa. Changes likely not seen since perhaps the Dalton Minimum.
I still have more faith in the hypothesis that lower solar energizing in tropical oceans results in a weaker tropical atmospheric column in general The descending limb of the Hadley Cells is further poleward During large solar cycles. Low solar shrinks and cools the Tropical oceans ... southward alters the placement of water bodies and colder masses move further south.   |
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 8, 2024 21:50:40 GMT
Interesting change in the arctic sea ice extent since 2018. From the NSIDC website. Seems statistically significant and not just a one or two year increase.  |
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Post by ratty on Feb 8, 2024 23:40:47 GMT
Interesting change in the arctic sea ice extent since 2018. From the NSIDC website. Seems statistically significant and not just a one or two year increase. That doesn't seem to gel with the low ice record in 2012? This is area, not extent ...  |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 14, 2024 18:46:51 GMT
HUMIDITY at 3 Tropospheric layers Climate4You
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 14, 2024 20:29:39 GMT
HUMIDITY at 3 Tropospheric layers Climate4You
It's interesting that the 3 elevations qualitatively track each other until the mid 70's and then the 9km data goes whacky. Do you agree? |
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Post by flearider on Feb 14, 2024 21:06:28 GMT
HUMIDITY at 3 Tropospheric layers Climate4You
It's interesting that the 3 elevations qualitatively track each other until the mid 70's and then the 9km data goes whacky. Do you agree? as it cools the rain falls can't be kept up anymore .. ?? |
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 14, 2024 22:48:33 GMT
HUMIDITY at 3 Tropospheric layers Climate4You
It's interesting that the 3 elevations qualitatively track each other until the mid 70's and then the 9km data goes whacky. Do you agree? Yes. The 70s were the start of the modern 3-cycle warm period (SC21-23) ... the Great Pacific Climate Shift. UAH temperatures in the Lower Stratosphere were higher as well.  |
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Post by duwayne on Feb 14, 2024 23:57:18 GMT
HUMIDITY at 3 Tropospheric layers Climate4You
I wonder how this compares to model predictions. |
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