|
|
Post by missouriboy on Oct 30, 2023 15:54:30 GMT
I often wonder how much the world changed with a shot fired by Gavrilo Princip that killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand on the 28th of June 1914. Of course it led to WWI which was a black stain on human history but it directly led to WWII, the creation of a Jewish state in the Holy Land and as Eisenhower would warn us in his farewell address the rise of the Military Industrial Complex in the U.S. Since Ike's warning in 1961 we have been in a near constant state of war somewhere with someone. Our leaders in Washington are "treating these wars like college football". As for my support in this war? I am completely neutral. As Sigurdur said both sides are evil. I just don't want my taxpayer dollars supporting either side... For all practical purposes, I am neutral too. But my sympathies are more with the aggrieved Palestinians. And I'm sorry to be "that guy", but at the heart of most modern dysfunction is the Zionist jews. Do you know how many dual citizenship Israeli jews are in top positions in our federal government? Of course not, the jews are also in all of the top positions in our media. The takeover is literally 100% complete. The jews control our government, and as we thought we knew it, our USA no longer exists. I think you're misinformed Walnut. I have it on good authority that Beta Theta Pi and Delta Sigma Phi control America. |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Oct 30, 2023 17:20:01 GMT
For all practical purposes, I am neutral too. But my sympathies are more with the aggrieved Palestinians. And I'm sorry to be "that guy", but at the heart of most modern dysfunction is the Zionist jews. Do you know how many dual citizenship Israeli jews are in top positions in our federal government? Of course not, the jews are also in all of the top positions in our media. The takeover is literally 100% complete. The jews control our government, and as we thought we knew it, our USA no longer exists. I think you're misinformed Walnut. I have it on good authority that Beta Theta Pi and Delta Sigma Phi control America. That could be. The I know that Sigma Nu's ruled Oklahoma State University in 1983. |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Oct 30, 2023 17:54:46 GMT
Back on the Economy the Dow Jones is now down YTD. It is well off the high of 36799 set in early January 2022. Interest rates are much, much higher than they have been in decades. The housing market is really starting to feel the crunch. Despite efforts inflation is still at least twice as high as the Fed mandate of 2%. The bond market does not seem to be doing to well and yet some so called experts are forecasting a "soft landing"? I don't see how. I'm thinking the odds of a deep recession/depression are at least twice as likely as a "soft landing". The market can't really go higher I'm afraid, because of the QE gasoline which fueled it up to these fairly artificially high levels. The economy has to catch up with the stock market at this point, and who knows how long that might take. I'm undecided about whether a recession is actually on the horizon. In my business, it's already been a bad recession for over a year. Well, 3 hours after I posted that, the Dow is up 500 points, and the Nasdaq also. So maybe I was wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Oct 30, 2023 23:09:39 GMT
The market can't really go higher I'm afraid, because of the QE gasoline which fueled it up to these fairly artificially high levels. The economy has to catch up with the stock market at this point, and who knows how long that might take. I'm undecided about whether a recession is actually on the horizon. In my business, it's already been a bad recession for over a year. Well, 3 hours after I posted that, the Dow is up 500 points, and the Nasdaq also. So maybe I was wrong. DCB? |
|
|
|
Post by code on Nov 2, 2023 1:19:52 GMT
I was surprised myself the Dow jumped, and I guess I will be surprised if it crashes, but be the first to say I told you.
|
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 2, 2023 12:20:52 GMT
I was surprised myself the Dow jumped, and I guess I will be surprised if it crashes, but be the first to say I told you. They say that bear market rallies are vicious, but I'm glad I'm not short the market and will just stay on the sidelines a little longer. |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 3, 2023 2:24:37 GMT
I was surprised myself the Dow jumped, and I guess I will be surprised if it crashes, but be the first to say I told you. Very bullish week, and for bonds too. Things might have actually bottomed. |
|
|
|
Post by blustnmtn on Nov 3, 2023 13:09:49 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 3, 2023 13:11:22 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Nov 3, 2023 15:09:40 GMT
I was surprised myself the Dow jumped, and I guess I will be surprised if it crashes, but be the first to say I told you. Very bullish week, and for bonds too. Things might have actually bottomed. I don't know what to think about the market. The Magnificent Seven are doing well. The rest of the equities market is not doing so well. Even with the big gains this week the market is still 2,000 points below its high set in January of 2021. Unemployment numbers looked softer and that news drove the market up? I guess it makes sense if you think it keeps the Fed from raising rates again. But in the normal world we used to live in increased unemployment data typically pushed the market down. Maybe I am old school and still believe fundamentals should drive the market but I'm going to keep my $$$$ safe and take the 5% bird in the hand until old school logic prevails again... |
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 4, 2023 0:06:45 GMT
I'm staying on the sideline until the other shoe drops. But maybe this guy only has one leg?
|
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 6, 2023 0:08:28 GMT
Bank run week
|
|
|
|
Post by ratty on Nov 6, 2023 0:39:18 GMT
I'm staying on the sideline until the other shoe drops. But maybe this guy only has one leg? Learn a new thing every day? It began in the early 1900's with poorly constructed buildings in the U.S. that had very thin floors and walls.
At night, tenants would often hear their neighbors above them getting ready for bed. |
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Nov 6, 2023 20:48:48 GMT
I see the market calls by Walnut and Glennkoks and my investment moves are rather boring in comparison. Most of my equity money is and has been for many years invested in an S&P 500 ETF, SPY. The return over the past 10 years is 12.5% compounded.
I do try to beat the S&P 500 average with some of my money. I've reported my most recent trades here. I sold SPY at 464 on 11/29/21. I rebought at 381 on 5/20/22 for an 18% gain. Now it is back up to 434 for a 14% additional gain giving an annualized gain of 17% since 11/29/21 while the S&P 500 is down by 9% from its peak.
That's 2 trades in 2 years.
Prior to 11/29/21 I recommended here a short sale of cruise companies and airline companies at the beginning of the COVID infection but I didn't put forth particular trades and prices so I can't list my specific gains as ones I've denoted here.
So I'm holding my normal SPY allocation hoping for a new high but not predicting when.
(I also trade options, but my gains are not really better the equity gains above since I'm doing it in a low risk way. I look at these as part of my "fixed income" portfolio and the returns are considerably higher than the bond and CD interest rates which are also part of my fixed income portfolio.)
|
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Nov 7, 2023 1:45:00 GMT
For most of my life I have been super boring when it comes to investing. Mostly 401Ks based on S&P 500 index funds with company matching. I did move to safety during the onset of Covid and it cost me some gains when I got back in. I bailed out a second time in September of 2021 when it was clear to me inflation was entrenched and not "transitory". Now Im just taking my 5% and waiting. Hopefully things straighten out and the macro picture looks better and I can get back in. I sure miss the gains over most of the last few decades.
My single biggest concern is our out of control spending. Until we can restore some fiscal sanity in Washington I am probably out.
|
|
