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Post by douglavers on Sept 28, 2023 12:16:23 GMT
[[Can anything be done to slow this runaway train of inflationary government debt?]]
Problem is simple. Any government which tries to fix the problem will rapidly lose popularity. Debt has gone beyond the point where it can be easily fixed.
It might not even be fixable without a major inflationary episode. Stagflation looming?
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Post by walnut on Sept 28, 2023 13:49:21 GMT
I'm really only seeing gas and diesel caused inflation. Fuel is embedded in everything. Lots of things we buy for work came way back down in deflationary style. Every time the economy seems like it is about to recover, diesel spikes back up and works as an automatic brake. So I don't see the inflation rate getting around 2% again without severe damage being done to the economy. Biden cannot/will not do whatever is necessary to get US fuel prices back down, so I think things will remain the same until we get someone else back in office.
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Post by walnut on Oct 2, 2023 3:19:03 GMT
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Post by ratty on Oct 2, 2023 5:10:53 GMT
Nothing to see there.  |
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Post by walnut on Oct 2, 2023 5:18:47 GMT
Some investment grade long term bond funds are about as low in price as they've ever been. BLV has a duration (interest rate sensitivity) of over 14 and is poised to possibly rebound nicely, while paying a little better than the inflation rate in coupon interest yield. Of course the trick is to know when it's going to bottom.
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Post by walnut on Oct 2, 2023 5:41:42 GMT
Nothing to see there. If 120% is "ok", then why weren't they borrowing 120% all along? No one really knows. They pretend to know. |
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 5, 2023 15:34:37 GMT
Nothing to see there. If 120% is "ok", then why weren't they borrowing 120% all along? No one really knows. They pretend to know. At the end of WWII 119% was most certainly not OK and we paraded our heroes around the nation selling war bonds. 120% should keep the average American up at night worrying. But what is really scary is the unfunded liabilities not included in that 120% number that makes projections look like Mann's Hockey Stick... |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 5, 2023 15:39:55 GMT
If 120% is "ok", then why weren't they borrowing 120% all along? No one really knows. They pretend to know. At the end of WWII 119% was most certainly not OK and we paraded our heroes around the nation selling war bonds. 120% should keep the average American up at night worrying. But what is really scary is the unfunded liabilities not included in that 120% number that makes projections look like Mann's Hockey Stick... When the masses discover that they will not even have their social security, I expect trouble. |
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Post by walnut on Oct 5, 2023 16:51:56 GMT
At the end of WWII 119% was most certainly not OK and we paraded our heroes around the nation selling war bonds. 120% should keep the average American up at night worrying. But what is really scary is the unfunded liabilities not included in that 120% number that makes projections look like Mann's Hockey Stick... When the masses discover that they will not even have their social security, I expect trouble. Each US dollar is basically an already defaulted IOU lol. |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 6, 2023 11:57:58 GMT
To a data guy, this looks like the apocalypse. But I'm sure they will figure it out.  The real message is in the first few minutes. The rest is just detail. |
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Post by walnut on Oct 6, 2023 13:19:02 GMT
Long term bonds still dropping in pre-market. Strange, I expected a bounce first. Maybe it will still come today.
This could be shaping up the economic picture that we will be dealing with for most of the rest of our lives, I'm thinking. Long term bonds de-coupling from Fed influence, supply and demand for money kicking in.
edit- no, that's a big freaking drop to start the day. Rates headed higher again.
If we get 80's style rates, we are thoroughly screwed. The US cannot afford the interest this time. They will be forced to inflate the debt back down to scale, which will bring us 80's level interest rates.
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 6, 2023 16:59:58 GMT
Long term bonds still dropping in pre-market. Strange, I expected a bounce first. Maybe it will still come today. This could be shaping up the economic picture that we will be dealing with for most of the rest of our lives, I'm thinking. Long term bonds de-coupling from Fed influence, supply and demand for money kicking in. edit- no, that's a big freaking drop to start the day. Rates headed higher again. If we get 80's style rates, we are thoroughly screwed. The US cannot afford the interest this time. They will be forced to inflate the debt back down to scale, which will bring us 80's level interest rates. Jobs numbers came in hotter than expected guaranteeing at least one more rate hike. The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. They have to stop inflation, it is the worst of all the evils. But the playbook for fighting inflation was created by Paul Volcker in the 1980's when our debt to GDP ratio was 32%. The cost of servicing that debt was much less than it is going to be today. I don't know how we get out of this, we may not. Not without some big time suffering and haircuts... |
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Post by duwayne on Oct 6, 2023 18:57:49 GMT
Has the market bottomed?
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 6, 2023 19:36:47 GMT
Yeah, I think you need to jump in... |
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Post by ratty on Oct 7, 2023 1:57:41 GMT
Yeah, I think you need to jump in... Are we serious? |
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