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Post by duwayne on Jun 16, 2023 19:00:35 GMT
It's up another $10.80 today. I feel a little tempted to sell but I can see holding MSFT basically forever. When they fire the rest of their workers to be replaced by AI and a skeleton crew, EPS is going to go through the roof. I wouldn't trade it for Biden monopoly money anyway. What do you think Duwayne, do you have some? The roads are absolutely packed around here, and business is picking up nicely. Now that they are finally saying possibly recession, we're heading for a boom. There was a recession, it's already ending. They are like a year behind. They always are. Walnut, my stock holdings are about 8% in MSFT. That's because MSFT is about 8% of the S&P 500 and I'm mostly invested in S&P 500 ETF's.
I rarely reduce my S&P 500 holdings, but as I posted here, I did do that back in late November 2021 because I expected the market to fall as in a typical recession, ie, by 20 to 30%.
I then bought back in after the the S&P fell by 20% because I don't trust my ability to pinpoint the exact low. My gain was 18% since I didn't sell at the exact high.
Since then the S&P 500 has gone up by 16%. So there's a gain of 18% + 16% so far during a period where the market has actually fallen slightly overall as it is yet to reach its old high.
Note that I did not sell all of my S&P 500 holdings in 2021 near the old high since I only do that when I see something really bad ahead which would cause the market to fall by 50%. I didn't see that happening from the high in 2021 although as you will recall, some posters here thought it likely.
My equity value is now significantly above my target percentage and I will reduce the percentage (rebalance) if and when I'm convinced a significant drop is coming.
Now, having said all that, the market does seem a little overbought right now.
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 16, 2023 20:24:16 GMT
The macro climate does seem to "feel" better. Europe survived the winter with adequate natural gas supplies. Ukraine is at a minimum holding their own against Russia. Unemployment is still very low here in the US. With that being said an entire generation of investors have never experienced anything but a low rate free money environment. That no longer exists. I am not sure we are headed for a boom or bust. I'm cautiously optimistic but not buying yet. I probably somewhat overstated my level of confidence. Given that we have parts of government which seem to be actively working against our economic best interests, this recovery is not on real solid ground. But yes, things are picking up for now. I'm fairly surprised myself. Are your stone business customers in California picking back up? |
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Post by walnut on Jun 16, 2023 23:57:33 GMT
I probably somewhat overstated my level of confidence. Given that we have parts of government which seem to be actively working against our economic best interests, this recovery is not on real solid ground. But yes, things are picking up for now. I'm fairly surprised myself. Are your stone business customers in California picking back up? It's been picking up all over, but honestly California might be the exception. I heard this morning that one CA company said "they still want to order but they can't yet". That normally means cash position is not good. A weak economy in California is really double bad for them because freight rates from the midwest to CA are pretty astronomical. It seems sometimes like the trip across the US west with it's low population-no return freight, deserts and mountains might as well be the Pacific ocean. |
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Post by walnut on Jun 17, 2023 0:02:07 GMT
It's up another $10.80 today. I feel a little tempted to sell but I can see holding MSFT basically forever. When they fire the rest of their workers to be replaced by AI and a skeleton crew, EPS is going to go through the roof. I wouldn't trade it for Biden monopoly money anyway. What do you think Duwayne, do you have some? The roads are absolutely packed around here, and business is picking up nicely. Now that they are finally saying possibly recession, we're heading for a boom. There was a recession, it's already ending. They are like a year behind. They always are. Walnut, my stock holdings are about 8% in MSFT. That's because MSFT is about 8% of the S&P 500 and I'm mostly invested in S&P 500 ETF's.
I rarely reduce my S&P 500 holdings, but as I posted here, I did do that back in late November 2021 because I expected the market to fall as in a typical recession, ie, by 20 to 30%.
I then bought back in after the the S&P fell by 20% because I don't trust my ability to pinpoint the exact low. My gain was 18% since I didn't sell at the exact high.
Since then the S&P 500 has gone up by 16%. So there's a gain of 18% + 16% so far during a period where the market has actually fallen slightly overall as it is yet to reach its old high.
Note that I did not sell all of my S&P 500 holdings in 2021 near the old high since I only do that when I see something really bad ahead which would cause the market to fall by 50%. I didn't see that happening from the high in 2021 although as you will recall, some posters here thought it likely.
My equity value is now significantly above my target percentage and I will reduce the percentage (rebalance) if and when I'm convinced a significant drop is coming.
Now, having said all that, the market does seem a little overbought right now.
It's easy to believe somewhat overbought from a swing trading perspective. But, the indexes are being led up by a few high profile winners with large weightings. I think that much of the market is actually still fairly quiet. Of course that doesn't really help you, being invested in SP etf's. It took some time for me to get to this point, but I have finally stopped worrying about quotes in the short-term. I finally realized, there are scores of companies who's equity stock has more genuine real value to me than clown cash from the Biden regime. I now value things in shares of my stock, not Fed notes. $1 million in 1990 is equivalent to 2.33 million today in purchasing power. Think I'll stick with Microsft etc and COMPLETELY stop worrying about what quality, growing business equity is worth in US dollars. I'll measure time in decades. |
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 17, 2023 0:46:55 GMT
Im skeptical because of one major reason. Stock market gains are not wide spread. They are predominately on the backs of Tech, especially AI. It seems everyone is flocking to a handful of big names in AI. I would prefer a widespread, overall economy is thriving look...
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Post by walnut on Jun 17, 2023 1:09:16 GMT
Agreed, but don't require gains, just a store of value over long term. Gains are nice.
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Post by duwayne on Jun 18, 2023 14:20:33 GMT
It's up another $10.80 today. I feel a little tempted to sell but I can see holding MSFT basically forever. When they fire the rest of their workers to be replaced by AI and a skeleton crew, EPS is going to go through the roof. I wouldn't trade it for Biden monopoly money anyway. What do you think Duwayne, do you have some? The roads are absolutely packed around here, and business is picking up nicely. Now that they are finally saying possibly recession, we're heading for a boom. There was a recession, it's already ending. They are like a year behind. They always are. The macro climate does seem to "feel" better. Europe survived the winter with adequate natural gas supplies. Ukraine is at a minimum holding their own against Russia. Unemployment is still very low here in the US. With that being said an entire generation of investors have never experienced anything but a low rate free money environment. That no longer exists. I am not sure we are headed for a boom or bust. I'm cautiously optimistic but not buying yet. Glennkoks, help me out with your approach to investing. Below is a chart of how the S&P 500 has done since 2007 when the old Cycle 25 site started. If you'd invested $10,000 in 2007 and reinvested the dividends you'd have $40,000. How would application of your investment approach have improved on that?
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 18, 2023 14:48:35 GMT
The macro climate does seem to "feel" better. Europe survived the winter with adequate natural gas supplies. Ukraine is at a minimum holding their own against Russia. Unemployment is still very low here in the US. With that being said an entire generation of investors have never experienced anything but a low rate free money environment. That no longer exists. I am not sure we are headed for a boom or bust. I'm cautiously optimistic but not buying yet. Glennkoks, help me out with your approach to investing. Below is a chart of how the S&P 500 has done since 2007 when the old Cycle 25 site started. If you'd invested $10,000 in 2007 and reinvested the dividends you'd have $40,000. How would application of your investment approach have improved on that?
Duwayne, I'm not really sure what you mean by "my investment approach"? For the majority of my life I invested in broad based S&P 500 index funds, rode out all the downturns and let the market work for me. I did quite well over the last several decades. In September of 2021 I became concerned about the macro economic picture like our response to Covid, the inflation, national debt etc... So I moved to safety. My focus has been on other things like real estate and other business interests and much less on equities and the market. When I got out in September my intention was to get back in at some point when the macro picture looks better. My wife is 10 years younger than me and we decided to leave her portfolio pretty much unchanged and let time and the law of averages work for her. And it's pretty obvious but I will point it out. The period from 2007 until now saw some phenomenal growth, and I am glad I rode that wave. There are no guarantees that the next 16 years will look anything like the last 17 years. Good luck! |
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 23, 2023 13:07:03 GMT
Blackstone could be in trouble. |
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Post by flearider on Jun 28, 2023 17:00:50 GMT
Here's the thing to remember. When you short a stock, you are selling shares that you do not own. You must be able to buy them back at all times. Let's say that you shorted at $300 a share. Then the price goes to $400 a share. You are required to have that $100 on deposit with your broker. Plus, the broker probably wants some cushion, maybe 10% of the total share price, so you actually have to deposit $140 a share in your account. That can move against you very quickly. It's fine if you've got the funds to margin, and if the stock eventually goes back down to below $300. But it really sucks to run out of margin money at $550. Because then your broker will buy back those shares at $550, and you just realized a $250 loss. At that point, it doesn't matter if the stock price goes back down to $250. You already covered at $550. No matter how many times you may have heard this before, it doesn't hurt to hear it again: The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Maybe nvidia does actually have to drop back down to below $200. That may actually be the case. It still doesn't mean that the stock can't hang out at $600 for a couple months first. just to let you know this is not for now ... about 1.5 yrs time .. just watch...this is what im on about but timing  ? |
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Post by code on Jun 30, 2023 2:04:30 GMT
I'm all in right now, hoping I have enough of a stomach to stay the course till Sept, labor day.
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Post by walnut on Jun 30, 2023 2:36:17 GMT
I'm all in right now, hoping I have enough of a stomach to stay the course till Sept, labor day.
Assuming you picked well, you own a piece of the productive, wealth producing machinery of the United States of America, and it will be fine, but with a few ups and downs along the way. Better than the declining balance notes that the Fed passes around. Accumulate capital equity, not Biden dollars. I don't even understand your anxiety. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 30, 2023 13:31:57 GMT
I think that this is an interesting map. Duwayne ... you need to up your golf time.   |
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Post by code on Jun 30, 2023 18:05:02 GMT
I'm all in right now, hoping I have enough of a stomach to stay the course till Sept, labor day.
Assuming you picked well, you own a piece of the productive, wealth producing machinery of the United States of America, and it will be fine, but with a few ups and downs along the way. Better than the declining balance notes that the Fed passes around. Accumulate capital equity, not Biden dollars. I don't even understand your anxiety. I don't have the savvy or resources you do Chris so I went with my gut and went all in on big cap stocks like Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple. I was tired of making tiny sums daily and now am enduring stomach churning like a roller coaster when my portfolio goes up 5k or down 10k in one day. The anxiety comes from the fact I live in a small house, drive a 30 year old truck, and my budget for a vacation sometimes is just a tent near a river with my fly rod in hand. Pass the Tums. |
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 30, 2023 18:19:35 GMT
My money market is paying 4.8% so I am not in a hurry to get back in. But powder is dry, waiting...
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?
