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Post by walnut on Mar 13, 2023 12:37:18 GMT
yes the interest rate cycle from 1960 to 1980 then to 2020 and now back up to say 2030 will look quite cyclic and the underlying asset prices which are driven by yield or interest rates more generally will be a learning process and the young are the lambs to the slaughter. All a bit jumbled but us old bastards understand this through the process of bleeding in the past. I agree, be careful to steer clear of anything with a yield component to it. Fight that temptation because ideas get thrown at you all the time. Not that I am buying things really. If adjusted for inflation you can break even over this period, however long it lasts, you have done well. |
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 13, 2023 15:35:35 GMT
yes the interest rate cycle from 1960 to 1980 then to 2020 and now back up to say 2030 will look quite cyclic and the underlying asset prices which are driven by yield or interest rates more generally will be a learning process and the young are the lambs to the slaughter. All a bit jumbled but us old bastards understand this through the process of bleeding in the past. Dissertations will be written comparing the 2007-09 Florida crash to 2023-25(?). Assuming this does not turn into a 1920s-30s style depression, those who have cash and patience and a hankering for a Florida residence will be able to pick and choose from "the creame" of the repossessions in the 2025-29 time period. I was working in Arizona at the time and made a few Florida trips visiting friends. Viewed a LOT of repos during the 2009-14 time period. The amount of "trash" on the market was staggering. In some places, the better part of whole neighborhoods slowly decomposing in the Florida climate. It doesn't take long in that heat and humidity. Concrete block construction lasts a long time ... but roofs and interiors will decompose. I want a "rocky headland" that can be mined for a stone foundation and abutments/walls that could not be moved by anything short of a precision airstrike or a nuclear weapon.  PS. Rocky headlines are hard to find in coastal, mid-southern Florida. |
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Post by code on Mar 14, 2023 14:55:14 GMT
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Post by code on Mar 14, 2023 14:58:30 GMT
yes the interest rate cycle from 1960 to 1980 then to 2020 and now back up to say 2030 will look quite cyclic and the underlying asset prices which are driven by yield or interest rates more generally will be a learning process and the young are the lambs to the slaughter. All a bit jumbled but us old bastards understand this through the process of bleeding in the past. I agree, be careful to steer clear of anything with a yield component to it. Fight that temptation because ideas get thrown at you all the time. Not that I am buying things really. If adjusted for inflation you can break even over this period, however long it lasts, you have done well. what do you think, or like? Gold?
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Post by walnut on Mar 14, 2023 16:16:07 GMT
If your goal is to not lose money, then gold is fine. In the past I bought gold, then on a nice spike I wanted to sell. I ended up taking to some place in town where I sold it, but didn't enjoy the experience of dealing with them. If you think that you can eventually trade your gold for cash in anywhere other than a pawn shop like setting, then fine. Gold ETF's like GLD offer much better liquidity, however they are fully taxable and traceable. Gold generally won't grow your wealth, excluding certain periods in history.
Right now, I think that the future is evolving like this. AI bots are going to run everything, the wealth disparity is going to widen, and the world will be two groups- the people who bought AI tech companies during the bear market and those who didn't. I'm not kidding really. Invest in AI now.
Other than AI tech, buy solid blue chip like companies with growth prospects which have pricing power to respond to inflation pressures, and pay at most only a small dividend, so less exposure to interest rate/principle risk (like what sunk SVB). Really, just buy MSFT.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 14, 2023 18:02:35 GMT
If your goal is to not lose money, then gold is fine. In the past I bought gold, then on a nice spike I wanted to sell. I ended up taking to some place in town where I sold it, but didn't enjoy the experience of dealing with them. If you think that you can eventually trade your gold for cash in anywhere other than a pawn shop like setting, then fine. Gold ETF's like GLD offer much better liquidity, however they are fully taxable and traceable. Gold generally won't grow your wealth, excluding certain periods in history. Right now, I think that the future is evolving like this. AI bots are going to run everything, the wealth disparity is going to widen, and the world will be two groups- the people who bought AI tech companies during the bear market and those who didn't. I'm not kidding really. Invest in AI now. Other than AI tech, buy solid blue chip like companies with growth prospects which have pricing power to respond to inflation pressures, and pay at most only a small dividend, so less exposure to interest rate/principle risk (like what sunk SVB). Really, just buy MSFT. Why MSFT? Ya comfortable trading with the Devil? Bought gold and silver ages ago. It's the Armageddon hedge, but has had a nice return since before 2000. It just sits there as insurance for my monetary assets. I think ammo and food might be the other anchor. You might be able to run with gold ... but silver would really slow you down. My only gold regret is that I didn't buy more gold jewelry in Saudi in the 90s. They had a law that used jewelry could only be sold at the raw metal price. Got some really nice heavy gold chains. Now I feel at home when I go to Puerto Rico.  |
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Post by walnut on Mar 14, 2023 18:26:25 GMT
If your goal is to not lose money, then gold is fine. In the past I bought gold, then on a nice spike I wanted to sell. I ended up taking to some place in town where I sold it, but didn't enjoy the experience of dealing with them. If you think that you can eventually trade your gold for cash in anywhere other than a pawn shop like setting, then fine. Gold ETF's like GLD offer much better liquidity, however they are fully taxable and traceable. Gold generally won't grow your wealth, excluding certain periods in history. Right now, I think that the future is evolving like this. AI bots are going to run everything, the wealth disparity is going to widen, and the world will be two groups- the people who bought AI tech companies during the bear market and those who didn't. I'm not kidding really. Invest in AI now. Other than AI tech, buy solid blue chip like companies with growth prospects which have pricing power to respond to inflation pressures, and pay at most only a small dividend, so less exposure to interest rate/principle risk (like what sunk SVB). Really, just buy MSFT. Why MSFT? Ya comfortable trading with the Devil? Bought gold and silver ages ago. It's the Armageddon hedge, but has had a nice return since before 2000. It just sits there as insurance for my monetary assets. I think ammo and food might be the other anchor. You might be able to run with gold ... but silver would really slow you down. My only gold regret is that I didn't buy more gold jewelry in Saudi in the 90s. They had a law that used jewelry could only be sold at the raw metal price. Got some really nice heavy gold chains. Now I feel at home when I go to Puerto Rico. Bill was and is evil. MSFT is running the AI show, and offers more safety than picking through startups. |
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Post by glennkoks on Mar 14, 2023 20:10:30 GMT
I never liked owning physical gold. Too many unscrupulous dealers out there trying to make a fortune on the trade.
Picking stocks in this market is like trying to catch a falling knife.
CDs are now upwards of 5% which may be the best way to go in this market. Might be able to keep up with inflation and keep from going backwards.
Personally I’m sitting back waiting for the blood in the water. Then I will get back in heavy.
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Post by walnut on Mar 14, 2023 20:33:34 GMT
I never liked owning physical gold. Too many unscrupulous dealers out there trying to make a fortune on the trade. Picking stocks in this market is like trying to catch a falling knife. CDs are now upwards of 5% which may be the best way to go in this market. Might be able to keep up with inflation and keep from going backwards. Personally I’m sitting back waiting for the blood in the water. Then I will get back in heavy. Yes, there are considerations involved with owning physical gold. I'm nervous about a few different aspects of it. I don't know about the falling knife, many stocks have bounced off a pretty firm looking long term support. There was blood in the water, November-December of 2022, Nasdaq is still down but many stocks are looking firmer. No one can read the future but I don't like monopoly money.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 14, 2023 21:00:52 GMT
I never liked owning physical gold. Too many unscrupulous dealers out there trying to make a fortune on the trade. Picking stocks in this market is like trying to catch a falling knife. CDs are now upwards of 5% which may be the best way to go in this market. Might be able to keep up with inflation and keep from going backwards. Personally I’m sitting back waiting for the blood in the water. Then I will get back in heavy. You are right. Reputable dealers with a long track record, and standard hard to fake products are key in precious metals dealing. |
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Post by glennkoks on Mar 15, 2023 1:00:51 GMT
I never liked owning physical gold. Too many unscrupulous dealers out there trying to make a fortune on the trade. Picking stocks in this market is like trying to catch a falling knife. CDs are now upwards of 5% which may be the best way to go in this market. Might be able to keep up with inflation and keep from going backwards. Personally I’m sitting back waiting for the blood in the water. Then I will get back in heavy. Yes, there are considerations involved with owning physical gold. I'm nervous about a few different aspects of it. I don't know about the falling knife, many stocks have bounced off a pretty firm looking long term support. There was blood in the water, November-December of 2022, Nasdaq is still down but many stocks are looking firmer. No one can read the future but I don't like monopoly money. There was a drop of blood in the water back in Nov-Dec 2022. It's likely to turn blood red if this banking crisis spreads. |
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Post by walnut on Mar 15, 2023 13:11:46 GMT
What, like this morning? All they had to do was not break the great economy they were given. Directly traceable to Biden's "covid relief stimulus" cash drops and Biden's war on fossil fuels. Biden 100% responsible for this.
The fed ran QE for over a decade without even one tiny bump of inflation. It's really not the fed, it's the democrats.
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Post by walnut on Mar 15, 2023 15:19:08 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 15, 2023 16:02:39 GMT
Seems that Cindy is now smarter than your average lawyer.  |
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Post by douglavers on Mar 15, 2023 21:10:14 GMT
[[Out flew the web and floated wide;
The mirror cracked from side to side;
"The curse is come upon me," cried
The Lady of CS.]]
With apologies to Tennyson.
Not helped by a few hundred billions of bond market losses in worldwide bank portfolios.
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PS. Rocky headlines are hard to find in coastal, mid-southern Florida.
