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S.O.S for the U.S. Electric Grid
PJM Interconnection sounds the latest alarm that fossil-fuel plants are shutting down without adequate replacement power. The political class yawns.
By The Editorial BoardFollow
Feb. 26, 2023 4:47 pm ET

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People pass electrical power lines in Arlington, Va.
PHOTO: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

The warnings keep coming that the force-fed energy transition to renewable fuels is destabilizing the U.S. electric grid, but is anyone in government paying attention? Another S.O.S. came Friday in an ominous report from PJM Interconnection, one of the nation’s largest grid operators.

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The PJM report forecasts power supply and demand through 2030 across the 13 eastern states in its territory covering 65 million people. Its top-line conclusion: Fossil-fuel power plants are retiring much faster than renewable sources are getting developed, which could lead to energy “imbalances.” That’s a delicate way of saying that you can expect shortages and blackouts.

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PJM typically generates a surplus of power owing to its large fossil-fuel fleet, which it exports to neighboring grids in the Midwest and Northeast. When wind power plunged in the Midwest and central states late last week, PJM helped fill the gap between supply and demand and kept the lights on.

That’s why it’s especially worrisome that PJM is predicting a large decline in its power reserves as coal and natural-gas plants retire. The report forecasts that 40,000 megawatts (MW) of power generation—enough to light up 30 million households—are at risk of retiring by 2030, representing about 21% of PJM’s current generation capacity.

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Most projected power-plant retirements are “policy-driven,” the report says. For example, the steep costs of complying with Environmental Protection Agency regulations, including a proposed “good neighbor rule” that is expected to be finalized next month, will force about 10,500 MW of fossil-fuel generation to shut down.

At the same time, utility-company ESG (environmental, social and governance) commitments are driving coal plants to close, the report notes. Illinois and New Jersey climate policies could reduce generation by 8,900 MW. Do these states plan to rely on their good neighbors for power?

Many states have established ambitious renewable goals, and the Inflation Reduction Act lavishes enormous subsidies on wind, solar and batteries. But the report says the “historical rate of completion for renewable projects has been approximately 5%,” in part because of permitting challenges. In an optimistic case, the report estimates 21,000 MW of wind, solar and battery storage capacity will be added to the grid by 2030—about half as much as the expected fossil-fuel retirements.

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There’s another problem: Demand for electric power will increase amid the growth in data centers and the government’s push for the electrification of vehicles, heating and everything else. Loudoun County, Va., boasts “the largest concentration of data centers in the world,” the report notes.

The report doesn’t say this, no doubt owing to political reticence, but the conclusion is clear. The left’s green-energy transition is incompatible with a growing economy and improving living standards. Renewables don’t provide reliable power 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, and the progressive campaign to shut down coal and gas plants that do will invariably result in outages.

During an arctic air blast this past December, PJM ordered some businesses to curtail power usage and urged households to do the same. PJM narrowly avoided rolling blackouts as some generators switched to burning oil. But what will happen when those power plants shut down? A power shortage at PJM has the potential to cascade across much of the U.S.

Government officials have been raising alarms about the risks of cyber and physical attacks on the grid. But what about the accelerating danger from climate policy?

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Appeared in the February 27, 2023, print edition as 'S.O.S for the U.S. Electric Grid'.


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[walnut]

A one drachm silver coin was said to be worth about one man's daily wages at around the time of 0 BC. Interestingly, that is generally still true, of the old ones that are selling on Ebay.

But, the price of silver seems to have possibly been relatively higher then, as the coins were typically less than 3.5 grams each.  Or, maybe that just reflects the abundance that we live with in modern times compared to the austere lives of the ancient peasants.

www.ebay.com/itm/314425241948?hash=item493534715c:g:8U8AAOSwctFj-lra

[code]

dailyreckoning.com/the-accelerating-countdown-to-armageddon/

Doomsayer?

[code]

Goldman Sachs on housing

So here are the details of the housing picture for early 2023:

• Home sales are down 37% year over year (YOY), according to national real estate brokerage Redfin.
• Prices have declined on 6% of active listings, up from 2% a year ago.
• Mortgage purchase applications were down 41% YOY in January, slightly worse than the 40% decline in December.
• January sale prices were 11% lower than their June peak, although they were up 1% YOY.

[missouriboy]

Mar 2, 2023 18:12:48 GMT code said:

dailyreckoning.com/the-accelerating-countdown-to-armageddon/

Doomsayer?

Gold is poised.  Something bad makes gold go higher.  Items purchased in the Middle East around 2000 have done very well.

[missouriboy]

Mar 2, 2023 18:47:53 GMT code said:

Goldman Sachs on housing

So here are the details of the housing picture for early 2023:

• Home sales are down 37% year over year (YOY), according to national real estate brokerage Redfin.
• Prices have declined on 6% of active listings, up from 2% a year ago.
• Mortgage purchase applications were down 41% YOY in January, slightly worse than the 40% decline in December.
• January sale prices were 11% lower than their June peak, although they were up 1% YOY.

I think that maybe the recession has been taking off for a while ... and they're just trying to hide it as best they can.  Don't worry, they aren't very good at anything else ... and they won't be very good at hiding it.  Anybody who has only a little bit (after debt) is not going to have much of anything in a year.

Was this one of the guys you liked Glenn?

There were some questions on derivatives.

[code]

In order to address the issue of shoplifting and retail theft, the final two Walmart stores in the city of Portland will shutter their doors in late March.

www.kptv.com/2023/02/23/2-portland-walmart-stores-close-march/

[code]

Walmart will close its final two Portland stores and lay off 600 workers after record-breaking thefts in Democrat-led city

Walmart has announced it is permanently closing all of its locations in Portland months after CEO Doug McMillon warned of a historic rise in theft at its stores
The city is in the midst of a homeless crisis that has confounded city officials
Rising crime and homeless camps have pushed out businesses and residents

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11826175/Walmart-says-shut-stores-Portland-months-CEO-warned-historic-theft.html

[code]

Nordstrom joins the exodus of U.S. retailers from Canada: What you need to know

financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/nordstrom-canada-exodus-retailers-internet-landlords-economy

vancouversun.com/business/local-business/mall-landlords-creative-fill-nordstrom-vacancies

Apparently, Canadians don't want to pay $25 for two pair of brief underwear or $415 for a single boxer.

[walnut]

Mar 6, 2023 17:24:04 GMT code said:

Nordstrom joins the exodus of U.S. retailers from Canada: What you need to know

financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/nordstrom-canada-exodus-retailers-internet-landlords-economy

vancouversun.com/business/local-business/mall-landlords-creative-fill-nordstrom-vacancies

Apparently, Canadians don't want to pay $25 for two pair of brief underwear or $415 for a single boxer.

Amazon will have a driver personally hand deliver an obscure $10 item to me which can not be found anywhere else in town, in less than 24 hours.  It's great, but how can this be real?   Not a business model that I would want to try to win with.   I'm thinking that one day, after all the local retailers have been run out of business, Amazon is going to have to reveal that theirs was an unsustainable business all along.

[gridley]

Mar 6, 2023 18:47:04 GMT walnut said:

Mar 6, 2023 17:24:04 GMT code said:

Nordstrom joins the exodus of U.S. retailers from Canada: What you need to know

financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/nordstrom-canada-exodus-retailers-internet-landlords-economy

vancouversun.com/business/local-business/mall-landlords-creative-fill-nordstrom-vacancies

Apparently, Canadians don't want to pay $25 for two pair of brief underwear or $415 for a single boxer.

Amazon will have a driver personally hand deliver an obscure $10 item to me which can not be found anywhere else in town, in less than 24 hours.  It's great, but how can this be real?   Not a business model that I would want to try to win with.   I'm thinking that one day, after all the local retailers have been run out of business, Amazon is going to have to reveal that theirs was an unsustainable business all along.

Or once they've run all the local retailers out of business they jack their delivery fees through the roof and most people have no choice but to pay them.

[walnut]

Mar 7, 2023 0:02:17 GMT gridley said:

Mar 6, 2023 18:47:04 GMT walnut said:

Amazon will have a driver personally hand deliver an obscure $10 item to me which can not be found anywhere else in town, in less than 24 hours.  It's great, but how can this be real?   Not a business model that I would want to try to win with.   I'm thinking that one day, after all the local retailers have been run out of business, Amazon is going to have to reveal that theirs was an unsustainable business all along.

Or once they've run all the local retailers out of business they jack their delivery fees through the roof and most people have no choice but to pay them.

Yeah and no more easy returns.

[missouriboy]

Will Powell adopt this suggested approach?

[walnut]

They caused the inflation, but they want to use us to fix the inflation with our own skins.  It's just coldly academic to Powell.

[Sigurdur]

The fastest way to fix inflation is to raise taxes 3% across the board while REDUCING the rate of Federal spending by 3%.

Discretionary spending today is approximately $1.5trillion. A 3% drop is pocket change to the Federal Budget.

The signal would be gigantic.