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Post by walnut on May 30, 2022 2:21:26 GMT
I had been feeling a little gloomy about the economy and the stock indexes. But, things seems to be clicking along pretty well around here. There was a noticeable inflation spike mini-recession which seems to be wrapping up now. What if the market simply does not plunge as common wisdom expects? That is a distinct possibility. The market is pretty much a study in human behavior and we can act very unpredictable at times. Personally, I don't care how it acts. I made my decision to get out of the market last September based on the lack of economic fundamentals. The Buffet Indicator is out of whack, inflation is the highest its been in at least 40 years, endless QE and stimulus. When the fundamentals get back more in line with reality I will re-enter. Until then I will at a minimum sleep better at night! I thought that the 2020 'V' bottom was fairly easy to see. But this is not. No one seems to have a clue. Listen to CNBC and you'll see that no one knows. The usual "buy the dip" crowd every day, then the guy talking about recession. |
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Post by nonentropic on May 30, 2022 2:46:45 GMT
I remember in Physics a function called I think the "heaviside step function" I think we are experiencing the first half. There were other functions but math boys like symmetrical I don't think this will be. Just saying.
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Post by walnut on May 30, 2022 21:36:22 GMT
The market did really relax last week. Options implied volatilities suddenly dropped well below historical volatility.
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Post by duwayne on Jun 1, 2022 14:59:26 GMT
We should start a "Bottom" thread. The pennies are out and ready. My prediction for the bottom is 3810.32 on the S&P 500 average which was reached on May 20.
When considering this prediction, remember how much you paid for it.
Missouri, you were looking for a Bottom" prediction and I responded. But my prediction is better viewed as a "buy point" prediction or maybe a near term bottom which could become a long term bottom. This may or may not be the ultimate all-time bottom since a lot of things will happen in the future that I cannot even guess. I've taken some actions today that protect me in case there is a drop in the near term.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 1, 2022 15:30:40 GMT
My prediction for the bottom is 3810.32 on the S&P 500 average which was reached on May 20.
When considering this prediction, remember how much you paid for it.
Missouri, you were looking for a Bottom" prediction and I responded. But my prediction is better viewed as a "buy point" prediction or maybe a near term bottom which could become a long term bottom. This may or may not be the ultimate all-time bottom since a lot of things will happen in the future that I cannot even guess. I've taken some actions today that protect me in case there is a drop in the near term.
I merely look at past events. No nuance. In 2008, the S&P500 dropped to 55% of its previous high value. A similar drop today would take it to 2600 based on its high value. There is no sophistication in my method. Mirror only. What will hold the market above a repeat? |
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Post by code on Jun 1, 2022 15:41:11 GMT
I had been feeling a little gloomy about the economy and the stock indexes. But, things seems to be clicking along pretty well around here. There was a noticeable inflation spike mini-recession which seems to be wrapping up now. What if the market simply does not plunge as common wisdom expects? Walnut,
I am curious, what are you pondering? "What if the market simply does not plunge as common wisdom expects?" What are some potentials?
Two attorneys, one who was near the bottom of their class, telling the Treasury Secretary who now admits she got it wrong, what to do.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 1, 2022 17:03:42 GMT
I had been feeling a little gloomy about the economy and the stock indexes. But, things seems to be clicking along pretty well around here. There was a noticeable inflation spike mini-recession which seems to be wrapping up now. What if the market simply does not plunge as common wisdom expects? Walnut,
I am curious, what are you pondering? "What if the market simply does not plunge as common wisdom expects?" What are some potentials?
Two attorneys, one who was near the bottom of their class, telling the Treasury Secretary who now admits she got it wrong, what to do.
By what right does Yellen believe she deserves her job? Here in Italy we noticed that the price of pasta is fairly low ... about $1. Other stuff has inflated ... seems similar to the US. Similar imported pasta in the US is $4. If it were otherwise, there would be riots here. But yes, the trains still run on time. El Duce would approve. Of course he's dead. So there's that.  |
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 1, 2022 18:23:29 GMT
Sometimes you have to look at the choice of words politicians use. For instance the Troubled Asset Relief Program. TARP sounds so much better than the Bailing Out Wall Street Bill. Last summer when everyone in the nation knew we had some pretty significant inflation the Fed started tossing the term "transitory Inflation" around.
In my 54 years on this earth I have never heard an economist use that term before. To me you either have inflation or you do not. It's like being kind of pregnant.
That was my red flag to get out. I have no idea where the market goes from here but I think there is much more downside risk than upside potential.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 1, 2022 21:05:22 GMT
I think its possible that NZ is a good example of a canary in the coal mine sort of place.
My take on inflation is its a big problem and QE and international trade are the big kicker, and the Ukrainian conflict has cemented it in.
So back to NZ the property market is bizarre but the unwind is now fully in play. Property auction are failing to attract bidders and rents are falling all the while houses are being built at record rates.
Having been in the construction manufacturing sector until last year I can report receivership and default is exploding. From a great film "there will be blood". A lot.
The point is the inflation may yet roll down towards 6% as the excesses are adjusted out in a year or two. Demand defines inflation it will fall very significantly.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 1, 2022 21:07:22 GMT
Sometimes you have to look at the choice of words politicians use. For instance the Troubled Asset Relief Program. TARP sounds so much better than the Bailing Out Wall Street Bill. Last summer when everyone in the nation knew we had some pretty significant inflation the Fed started tossing the term "transitory Inflation" around. In my 54 years on this earth I have never heard an economist use that term before. To me you either have inflation or you do not. It's like being kind of pregnant. That was my red flag to get out. I have no idea where the market goes from here but I think there is much more downside risk than upside potential. TARP always sounded like a reference to "my friends, relations and business associates". It is new corruption of the oldest form. Using your money and mine to bail the bastards out. Let them fail ... spectacularly. No prisoners. |
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Post by ratty on Jun 1, 2022 23:23:22 GMT
Maybe this is the transition? "transitory Inflation" -> recession -> depression -> WW3 But ....  |
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Post by walnut on Jun 1, 2022 23:44:37 GMT
I had been feeling a little gloomy about the economy and the stock indexes. But, things seems to be clicking along pretty well around here. There was a noticeable inflation spike mini-recession which seems to be wrapping up now. What if the market simply does not plunge as common wisdom expects? Walnut,
I am curious, what are you pondering? "What if the market simply does not plunge as common wisdom expects?" What are some potentials?
Two attorneys, one who was near the bottom of their class, telling the Treasury Secretary who now admits she got it wrong, what to do.
Well, a common view is that a nasty "day of capitulation" would be coming soon. The day when longs finally give up in a big way. Morgan Stanley said yesterday that they believe that day is still coming - after a fairly brief "bear market rally", which we have had over the last week or so. I had felt fairly confident that we would see that day sometime this summer.
We are getting some big price spikes this week in unleaded. The gloominess is coming back. up 20 cents last night, and a friend who owns a service station told me another 20 cents hike coming tonight.
Sorry, no great insights. But I say keep your powder dry, and insist on lower share prices for your investment dollars.
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Post by code on Jun 2, 2022 2:31:10 GMT
Jamie Dimon says ‘brace yourself’ for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine warPublished Wed, Jun 1 202210:27 AM www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jamie-dimon-says-brace-yourself-for-an-economic-hurricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html“You’d better brace yourself,” Dimon told the roomful of analysts and investors. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.” ‘It’s a hurricane’: Jamie Dimon tells investors to prepare for rough economic times aheadBy Christine Mui June 1, 2022 11:23 AM PDT
Dimon warned in May of “storm clouds” looming over the U.S. economy. He revised that assessment Wednesday at an annual conference sponsored by AllianceBernstein.
“I said there were storm clouds, big storm clouds,” Dimon said. Now “it’s a hurricane.”
He added that even though the economy seems “fine” at the moment and “everyone thinks the Fed can handle this,” rough times are on their way.
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Post by walnut on Jun 2, 2022 2:50:39 GMT
They are raising interest rates to control inflation which the govt caused by giving away free money. They don't need to raise rates to control inflation, they only need to stop printing and giving away money.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 2, 2022 6:57:56 GMT
They are raising interest rates to control inflation which the govt caused by giving away free money. They don't need to raise rates to control inflation, they only need to stop printing and giving away money. But then their "friends" would have to give up that free lunch that nobody else is invited to. Will this be another "begging on bended knee moment"? |
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