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Post by code on May 19, 2022 16:25:05 GMT
Free advertising this time Walnut, next time we can all bill you separately in ounces. I prefer mine liquid. paramountcapital.net/ |
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Post by code on May 19, 2022 16:29:27 GMT
Haven't peeked at the market yet today....  |
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Post by code on May 19, 2022 17:30:56 GMT
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Post by ratty on May 20, 2022 0:41:13 GMT
Haven't peeked at the market yet today.... That's my plan too.  |
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Post by walnut on May 20, 2022 1:32:28 GMT
Bear market. By the same mechanism that the market inflated year after year after year, as the Fed reduces the size of it's balance sheet we might see a systematic, mechanical destruction of share values.
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Post by walnut on May 20, 2022 1:34:37 GMT
Free advertising this time Walnut, next time we can all bill you separately in ounces. I prefer mine liquid. paramountcapital.net/This fund tends to do well after market selloffs when volatility collapses. With some experience it can be fairly easy to make quite a lot of money as VIX futures deflate after a spike. Selling volatility can at times be a forgiving strategy. The trick is to survive the crash.
Code, I hope that the treatment went well today.
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Post by duwayne on May 20, 2022 17:54:42 GMT
Back in December I opined that a 10% drop in the S&P 500 could be just ahead. I didn't choose to sell short at that time, but I did sell in my non-taxable accounts.
Now I've got money burning a hole in my pocket. The market has fallen 20% which is typical during a recession. From my experience the big drops tend to be limited to situations where there is a single unusual event. Examples in my investing career are the Arab Oil Embargo, the Dot Com Bubble, the Sub-Prime/Housing Bubble and COVID in 2020/2021.
I don't see anything similar now, even though you may.
So I decided to try to catch a falling knife with some of my hot money. I'm not recommending anything to others like I did at the beginning of the COVID drop when I felt a higher level of certainty.
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Post by walnut on May 20, 2022 23:27:18 GMT
Back in December I opined that a 10% drop in the S&P 500 could be just ahead. I didn't choose to sell short at that time, but I did sell in my non-taxable accounts.
Now I've got money burning a hole in my pocket. The market has fallen 20% which is typical during a recession. From my experience the big drops tend to be limited to situations where there is a single unusual event. Examples in my investing career are the Arab Oil Embargo, the Dot Com Bubble, the Sub-Prime/Housing Bubble and COVID in 2020/2021.
I don't see anything similar now, even though you may.
So I decided to try to catch a falling knife with some of my hot money. I'm not recommending anything to others like I did at the beginning of the COVID drop when I felt a higher level of certainty.
This one does feel less certain, no 'V Bottom' likely. I'm thinking sell in May and go away applies this year. I may buy stocks in the Fall, but only expecting an inflation hedge. I'm thinking the long bull might be over.
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Post by glennkoks on May 22, 2022 21:14:20 GMT
Back in December I opined that a 10% drop in the S&P 500 could be just ahead. I didn't choose to sell short at that time, but I did sell in my non-taxable accounts.
Now I've got money burning a hole in my pocket. The market has fallen 20% which is typical during a recession. From my experience the big drops tend to be limited to situations where there is a single unusual event. Examples in my investing career are the Arab Oil Embargo, the Dot Com Bubble, the Sub-Prime/Housing Bubble and COVID in 2020/2021.
I don't see anything similar now, even though you may.
So I decided to try to catch a falling knife with some of my hot money. I'm not recommending anything to others like I did at the beginning of the COVID drop when I felt a higher level of certainty.
After a meeting with my financial advisor I decided to move to safety on September 20th of last year. I did not buy into the narrative that the inflation we were experiencing was "transitory". The Buffett indicator was at an all time high indicating the market was overpriced. When you added our response to Covid, years of QE and an out of control deficit we just thought that it was time to get out. I hate trying to "time the market". I have never been good at it. With that being said the market is down 18% YTD and we are not even officially in a Bear Market. If you got out in December I would ride this thing until it bottoms out and wait for a series of rising highs and rising lows to jump back in. Personally, I think this market has the potential to lose 40-50 percent from it's highs when it's all over worth. Dry powder will come in handy! |
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Post by duwayne on May 23, 2022 17:38:34 GMT
Back in December I opined that a 10% drop in the S&P 500 could be just ahead. I didn't choose to sell short at that time, but I did sell in my non-taxable accounts.
Now I've got money burning a hole in my pocket. The market has fallen 20% which is typical during a recession. From my experience the big drops tend to be limited to situations where there is a single unusual event. Examples in my investing career are the Arab Oil Embargo, the Dot Com Bubble, the Sub-Prime/Housing Bubble and COVID in 2020/2021.
I don't see anything similar now, even though you may.
So I decided to try to catch a falling knife with some of my hot money. I'm not recommending anything to others like I did at the beginning of the COVID drop when I felt a higher level of certainty.
After a meeting with my financial advisor I decided to move to safety on September 20th of last year. I did not buy into the narrative that the inflation we were experiencing was "transitory". The Buffett indicator was at an all time high indicating the market was overpriced. When you added our response to Covid, years of QE and an out of control deficit we just thought that it was time to get out. I hate trying to "time the market". I have never been good at it. With that being said the market is down 18% YTD and we are not even officially in a Bear Market. If you got out in December I would ride this thing until it bottoms out and wait for a series of rising highs and rising lows to jump back in. Personally, I think this market has the potential to lose 40-50 percent from it's highs when it's all over worth. Dry powder will come in handy! Glennkoks, it looks like you've got a well thought out plan.
I've learned over many years that documented analysis ahead of action pays off. My posts here are generally for my own benefit. By writing my reasons down and putting them where others can see the rationale, I get better results.
My purchase yesterday was with a small percentage of my portfolio and I noted it was very risky. I wouldn't use this as portfolio guidance. It's just my documentation which also could be of interest to someone else. Comments are always welcome.
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Post by duwayne on May 24, 2022 14:27:35 GMT
After a meeting with my financial advisor I decided to move to safety on September 20th of last year. I did not buy into the narrative that the inflation we were experiencing was "transitory". The Buffett indicator was at an all time high indicating the market was overpriced. When you added our response to Covid, years of QE and an out of control deficit we just thought that it was time to get out. I hate trying to "time the market". I have never been good at it. With that being said the market is down 18% YTD and we are not even officially in a Bear Market. If you got out in December I would ride this thing until it bottoms out and wait for a series of rising highs and rising lows to jump back in. Personally, I think this market has the potential to lose 40-50 percent from it's highs when it's all over worth. Dry powder will come in handy! Glennkoks, it looks like you've got a well thought out plan.
I've learned over many years that documented analysis ahead of action pays off. My posts here are generally for my own benefit. By writing my reasons down and putting them where others can see the rationale, I get better results.
My purchase yesterday was with a small percentage of my portfolio and I noted it was very risky. I wouldn't use this as portfolio guidance. It's just my documentation which also could be of interest to someone else. Comments are always welcome.
Today's economic news is really bad and the market is being hit hard. The left shoulder intraday (hourly) level from the "V" bottom is not holding on the right shoulder. I still have some profit from my recent purchase and I'm taking it for now. I'm less certain that the 20% drop from the market high is a good buy point. But, if the right shoulder does hold, then I might be back.
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Post by walnut on May 24, 2022 14:39:50 GMT
At some point, producers will begin turning their machines off. I'm tired of buying diesel frankly. Lets see how people like that.
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Post by code on May 24, 2022 15:07:10 GMT
Back in December I opined that a 10% drop in the S&P 500 could be just ahead. I didn't choose to sell short at that time, but I did sell in my non-taxable accounts.
Now I've got money burning a hole in my pocket. The market has fallen 20% which is typical during a recession. From my experience the big drops tend to be limited to situations where there is a single unusual event. Examples in my investing career are the Arab Oil Embargo, the Dot Com Bubble, the Sub-Prime/Housing Bubble and COVID in 2020/2021.
I don't see anything similar now, even though you may.
So I decided to try to catch a falling knife with some of my hot money. I'm not recommending anything to others like I did at the beginning of the COVID drop when I felt a higher level of certainty.
After a meeting with my financial advisor I decided to move to safety on September 20th of last year. I did not buy into the narrative that the inflation we were experiencing was "transitory". The Buffett indicator was at an all time high indicating the market was overpriced. When you added our response to Covid, years of QE and an out of control deficit we just thought that it was time to get out. I hate trying to "time the market". I have never been good at it. With that being said the market is down 18% YTD and we are not even officially in a Bear Market. If you got out in December I would ride this thing until it bottoms out and wait for a series of rising highs and rising lows to jump back in. Personally, I think this market has the potential to lose 40-50 percent from it's highs when it's all over worth. Dry powder will come in handy! I also got out last year |
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Post by walnut on May 24, 2022 15:12:03 GMT
In the not too distant future we will be able to buy stocks practically for pennies. Get ready
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Post by missouriboy on May 24, 2022 20:09:21 GMT
In the not too distant future we will be able to buy stocks practically for pennies. Get ready We should start a "Bottom" thread. The pennies are out and ready. |
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