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Post by code on Aug 28, 2024 15:22:29 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Aug 28, 2024 15:53:25 GMT
The S&P 500 price to earnings ratio on July 31st was 25.5 versus the average over the last 30 years of 25.1. Not far from average.
What does the future hold? No one knows, but the companies in the S&P overall are bullish. For the quarter ending on June 30, earnings were up 16%. The estimates for the next 3 quarters compared to the same quarter in the prior year are +14%, +21% and +22%.
Historically, the companies in total tend to do slightly better than their predictions for the next quarter although it doesn’t always happen. They often are somewhat overly optimistic beyond the next quarter and their estimates will be adjusted down some.
(This is history and current and is not an opinion or a prediction on my part of either future earnings or P/E.) |
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 29, 2024 23:42:10 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Aug 31, 2024 20:38:23 GMT
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Post by walnut on Aug 31, 2024 21:10:04 GMT
You know, the stock market itself is a real-time survey, a consensus best guess at the present value of the stocks, and the participants are voting with real money. The futures market is the same best guess but possibly slightly more forward looking. If anyone really believed their own punditry, then they would borrow 10 million and let it ride. But yeah, probably... |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 1, 2024 14:14:38 GMT
You know, the stock market itself is a real-time survey, a consensus best guess at the present value of the stocks, and the participants are voting with real money. The futures market is the same best guess but possibly slightly more forward looking. If anyone really believed their own punditry, then they would borrow 10 million and let it ride. But yeah, probably... I like your analogy Walnut. BUT ... what is "real money" when one (or more) of Ben Bernake's sidekicks pushes some levers and drops an ungodly amount of digital blips into the economic feeding tubes? Did Warren Buffett just unhook and clear a whole shitload of his digital feeding tubes? And as for riding futures markets ... I'm just a Missouri boy trained up out of geology and data pushing. Some of History's characters, who took mega-millions(trillions) from others ... and let it ride ... ought to scare the Hell out of us. |
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Post by walnut on Sept 1, 2024 16:36:51 GMT
You know, the stock market itself is a real-time survey, a consensus best guess at the present value of the stocks, and the participants are voting with real money. The futures market is the same best guess but possibly slightly more forward looking. If anyone really believed their own punditry, then they would borrow 10 million and let it ride. But yeah, probably... I like your analogy Walnut. BUT ... what is "real money" when one (or more) of Ben Bernake's sidekicks pushes some levers and drops an ungodly amount of digital blips into the economic feeding tubes? Did Warren Buffett just unhook and clear a whole shitload of his digital feeding tubes? And as for riding futures markets ... I'm just a Missouri boy trained up out of geology and data pushing. Some of History's characters, who took mega-millions(trillions) from others ... and let it ride ... ought to scare the Hell out of us. Now MoBoy, you haven't been getting the word, what you have seen is grocery store price gouging, and really nothing else. |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 1, 2024 17:53:16 GMT
I like your analogy Walnut. BUT ... what is "real money" when one (or more) of Ben Bernake's sidekicks pushes some levers and drops an ungodly amount of digital blips into the economic feeding tubes? Did Warren Buffett just unhook and clear a whole shitload of his digital feeding tubes? And as for riding futures markets ... I'm just a Missouri boy trained up out of geology and data pushing. Some of History's characters, who took mega-millions(trillions) from others ... and let it ride ... ought to scare the Hell out of us. Now MoBoy, you haven't been getting the word, what you have seen is grocery store price gouging, and really nothing else. Thank you for clearing that up for me. I must have gotten confused somewhere between the fluttering eyelashes and all.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 1, 2024 20:12:28 GMT
Gold Repatriation is on a tare ... a tear I tell you. Getting downright exciting. However it turns out, ypu'll know you were there.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 6, 2024 21:58:19 GMT
Where and how is Peter Schiff wrong? |
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Post by walnut on Sept 7, 2024 0:08:42 GMT
According to people we have been talking to, the severe slowdown in business is being caused by uncertainty about the Nov election. This one's different...
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 7, 2024 2:52:37 GMT
Where and how is Peter Schiff wrong? I'm not one to criticize but Peter Schiff has predicted 10,000 of the last two recessions. |
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Post by Sigurdur on Sept 9, 2024 3:08:14 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Sept 9, 2024 20:11:28 GMT
Bought some Apple and Microsoft AAA bonds due in December and February at 5.36 yield to maturity. If you have a Fidelity account, you can go to their fixed income page and buy Treasuries coming due in February with 5.526% yield to maturity.
They have a money market with a $10,000 minimum available in their IRA accounts which has been paying 5.29% for some time now (FMPXX).
Is it time to lock in these higher interest rates for the longer term?
You can get a 20 year zero interest Treasury for $36.90 which will pay $100 at maturity. That's a 5.153% yield to maturity.
Does a bond fund make sense again?
I like to follow up on investment ideas....
Above, I suggested the possibility of locking in higher interest rates in mid-October. "Does a bond fund make sense again?" The Vanguard Bond Fund (BND) is up 8.6% since then with a total return including dividends of over 11.5%.
With the Fed Funds rate about to decline, the 5.153% return on 10-year Treasuries mentioned above could be a nice asset in the fixed asset part of the portfolio over the next 9 years.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 24, 2024 21:43:52 GMT
Shades of the near future? Or science fiction? |
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